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Here’s the primer for this series.

Notes
Kris Bryant is going to get a lot of roto love in drafts coming up, but if we look at the graph PECOTA charts out for him, we find him lacking. This is a situation we’ve encountered before with players like Matt Wieters and Jurickson Profar: PECOTA doesn’t like his playing-time forecast but it does have him putting up a solid slash line. Ultimately, Bryant is the wildcard of the position—he could out-earn everyone or merely be a middle-tier third baseman.

Todd Frazier could take a step back in stolen bases and average, and still warrant four-tier status at the position because of his power potential. I think 10-15 is a reasonable estimate for his stolen-base numbers, and even if he hits .260, that’s still really valuable.

Chris Davis’ track record is still outweighing his abysmal 2014 season. I’m still willing to bet on him, and he has extra value at third. The position drops off pretty severely in the one-tier group.

Ultimately, third base is populated by a thin upper crust and an analogous middle and lower class.

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RALederer
1/27
PECOTA predicted a huge, MVP rookie season for Wieters (.311/.385/.544 with over 30 HR and more than 100 R and RBI). http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8573 As a result, in the case of Wieters, it was BP that was guilty of doling out the "love."
MRubio52
1/27
When it comes to Wieters I was talking about his projections for this year.
ravenight
1/27
I wish these graphics were more effervescent. Could you add a shimmer of some sort, and perhaps a few bubbles? The bubbles could represent projected playing time.
BenC22
1/27
Agreed. Overall, this piece failed to move me emotionally.
jfranco77
1/27
Should we assume Josh Donaldson's bid price is hiding under either his 2014 bid or production? Or did Craij spread his Josh Donaldson shtick over here?
TheArtfulDodger
1/27
Josh Donaldson is an excellent value pick, fwiw
ravenight
1/27
If you look at the blue dots for Donaldson, Seager and Johnson, or the red ones for 'Nado, Santana and Castellanos, I think the idea is that the white of the 2015 bid changes the color of the dot if it falls on top of the previous bid or previous production.
ravenight
1/27
Can I flag my post as inappropriate for failing to use serial commas?