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To read the previous editions in this series, follow the links below:

Please read the primer for an explanation on how these graphics are created. There’s going to be a lot of questions about this graphic in particular as projecting saves is about as easy as herding cats, but let’s just get right into it:

There’s a remote chance that Koji Uehara, David Robertson, and Trevor Rosenthal all end up with poor save totals. Uehara is 39 and an injury or a decline in performance could strike this year. Robertson and Rosenthal could be ineffective, but I think they outperform their meager saves projection. Most of their projections are based on the previous three years of data, which obviously skews things, so bear that in mind.

The current god of the position, Craig Kimbrel, is the only player who earns red all the way. When it’s all said and done, I suspect that Kenly Jansen could be a notch below Kimbrel this season, so he’s a guy that I’m targeting fairly aggressively.

Joe Nathan just keeps on plugging along at 39, as he’s projected to have a solid season as a reliever. The guy that I’m targeting here is Addison Reed, who had ERA issues last year. I believe in the arm, and while the competition in Arizona does worry me slightly, I think he wins out.

In the next tier, Fernando Rodney is a player I’m hands off on this point. I love that hat tilt but I’m not in love with his performance last year. This is just about the tier where all the guys end up looking the same and posting similar performance. Jonathan Papelbon clearly sticks out and Huston Street is a really interesting option, but the rest of the list is full of late-round sleepers who currently have jobs.

For the interested, here are the bins:

SV

Tier 1

37+

Tier 2

26-36

Tier 3

15-25

Tier 4

4-14

Tier 5

3-

SO

Tier 1

80+

Tier 2

65-79

Tier 3

49-64

Tier 4

33-48

Tier 5

32-

ERA

Tier 1

2.21-

Tier 2

2.22-2.81

Tier 3

2.82-3.40

Tier 4

3.41-4.00

Tier 5

4.01+

WHIP

Tier 1

.98-

Tier 2

.99-1.10

Tier 3

1.11-1.22

Tier 4

1.23-1.33

Tier 5

1.34+