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Geovany Soto | C | Chicago Cubs
Mixed: $11 | NL-only: $15 | PECOTA C Rank: 9 | C ADP: 12

PA

AVG

HR

SB

RBI

R

505

.259

19

1

54

66

Soto is one puzzling player. A year removed from a disastrous 2009 campaign, he posts a strong bounce-back season in 2010 by hitting .280 with 17 home runs. Then in 2011, he posts another disastrous line led by a .228 batting average. At this point, fantasy owners might as well be flipping coins to try and figure out whether this year will be a good or bad Soto season, right?

Well, there are some positives to be discussed even amid an awful 2011 year. Yes, it took Soto 100 more plate appearances, but he still managed to hit 17 home runs with an almost identical number of runs and RBI. His 2011 HR/FB rate of 14.2 percent exactly matches his career rate, so it is likely that, even if he struggles with balls in play, a similar number of balls will continue to leave the yard for Soto. A home run total close to the 19 PECOTA projects is completely within reason.

Soto's value will ultimately come down to his batting average, which is as fickle as they come. PECOTA is taking a neutral stance by projecting what is essentially his career average, and with that average, fantasy owners would be looking at a good commodity heading into 2012. The scary thing about Soto's bad batting average in 2011 was that it was more fueled by a career-high 26 percent strikeout rate than it was by bad BABIP luck. Much of this was due to Soto swinging at more pitches out of the zone than he did in his strong 2010:

Soto, Season

Swing%

O-Swing%

Contact%

O-Contact%

2011

39

21

71

36

2010

37

15

76

41

Both of those skills are a lot more repeatable than batting average overall, so the numbers do point to a performance that could wind up being worse than PECOTA's .259 projection (though nowhere near his 2011 mark). Fantasy players are currently viewing Soto among the last viable primary catchers in mixed leagues, behind names like Wilson Ramos and ahead of second catcher options like Nick Hundley. Among the players being drafted ahead of him, PECOTA likes him more than J.P. Arencibia and Matt Wieters, and though you could make an argument either way here, it is undeniable that Soto's history and strong basic skill set make him a more appealing option than many of the lower-tier, first-catcher options. Instead of banking on a player like Arencibia with well-known strikeout issues, betting on a Soto regression campaign seems like a wiser choice, and winning on that bet would pay huge dividends.

Kelly Johnson | 2B | Toronto Blue Jays
Mixed: $10 | AL-only: $15 | PECOTA 2B Rank: 12 | 2B ADP: 17

PA

AVG

HR

SB

RBI

R

570

.257

17

17

70

70

Johnson has had a similar roller coaster ride as Soto over the last three seasons, alternating good and bad years. He is also similar in that he struggled with strikeouts in 2011. The difference, however, is that his approach has not changed all that significantly:

Soto, Season

Swing%

O-Swing%

Contact%

O-Contact%

2011

47

29

72

52

2010

46

29

77

56

It turns out that much of Johnson’s seasonal difference comes from contact inside the zone rather than outside. Johnson made contact on 81 percent of pitches in the zone in 2011, but that mark had been 86 percent in 2010 and for much of his career prior. It seems likely that he will regress a good deal to his old contact rates, which should again help to bring his average back up.

As for the rest of Johnson's game, we mentioned it earlier this offseason that a full season of hitting in Toronto may be a huge boon to Johnson's power, and expecting another 20-plus home runs is highly plausible. Toronto's offense should be good enough to feed Johnson plenty of runs and RBI opportunities, ultimately leading to a relatively successful campaign that is currently being underrated by ADP; by the end of 2012, Johnson should outperform players like Aaron Hill and Jose Altuve.

Zack Cozart | SS | Cincinnati Reds
Mixed: $1 | NL-only: $13 | PECOTA SS Rank: 16 | SS ADP: 21

PA

AVG

HR

SB

RBI

R

517

.253

14

13

58

58

Cozart was mentioned earlier this offseason, and here is what was said:

His decent strikeout rate (16.5 percent in the minors) and BABIP (.305) indicate a player who can at least push a .260 batting average, and a package of double-digit steals and homers at the shortstop position should be worth selecting in deeper leagues in the same way that Cliff Pennington and Ian Desmond are good choices in those leagues.

Sure enough, come PECOTA's release, we see almost exactly what was predicted for him earlier this year. Cozart's surprising power over the last two seasons seems like it well in the majors, especially when playing in Great American Ball Park. With no one standing in the way of a starting job, there is a decent chance that Cozart logs even more plate appearances than he’s projected for, upping his counting stats and giving fantasy owners a little more upside than options like Jed Lowrie and Rafael Furcal present. Cozart should be a solid NL-only selection and a fringe final shortstop choice in mixed leagues.

Ryan Raburn | 2B, OF | Detroit Tigers
Mixed: $7 | AL-only: $12 | PECOTA 2B Rank: 17 | 2B ADP: 22

PA

AVG

HR

SB

RBI

R

543

.266

19

5

71

67

Quietly, over the last three seasons in part-time play, Ryan Raburn has hit a solid .274/.329/.473 with only a .327 BABIP sticking out as slightly aberrant. His power is real; he hits enough fly balls (44 percent career rate) to lift his share of homers out of the park, and his 12.2 percent career HR/FB rate appears reasonable. With Detroit's offense getting better this offseason with the addition of Prince Fielder, it may provide a higher run environment in which Raburn's 19 projected home runs can flourish.

As an outfielder, Raburn was a decent player but was not on the radar of many fantasy players. As a second baseman, however, he should catch the interest of players looking to fill gaps in their lineup late in mixed league drafts. Right now, his ADP has him next to Brian Roberts and Gordon Beckham, and with a decent chance to start at second for the Tigers, there is no reason for Raburn to be drafted alongside players who have struggled or been injured over the last two years. His projected power output trumps all but the best second basemen in fantasy this year, and that alone should get him some late-round recognition. The only question for owners is whether manager Jim Leyland will have the patience to accept his defensive misgivings in the infield, since Raburn is generally rated by defensive statistics as a butcher at the keystone. If he does last through the season getting close-to-regular at-bats, fantasy owners should have a quality second baseman on their hands.

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hessshaun
2/24
Sorry but the only thing I am touching in this group is the only untainted quantity in Cozart. All those other guys are classically over valued by PECOTA in my estimation. Not that I am saying PECOTA is useless, because I love it like the brother I never had. However, in my league format, when you don't show up for months on end, it kills you. Just looking through their splits over the last few years, all three of those guys are simply not worth owning for three months out of the year, even in deep leagues.

Add EE to that list as well, but you don't cover third.
edman8585
2/24
Hahaha, I've got three of these guys (Soto, Johnson, and Cozart) on my dead last fantasy team and have been mulling over Soto and Cozart for the final keeper spot. It just goes to show how much the value on everybody on that team plummetted last year that they are all showing up as values.
gweedoh565
2/24
Hey Mike- I read somewhere that Ryan Raburn may end up platooning (I forget with whom). Do you have any info about that? Thanks!
edman8585
2/24
There may be a partial platoon with Ramon Santiago at second base.
SFiercex4
2/29
gweedoh565,

If a platoon occurs, then you are obviously looking at less value for Raburn. Still, he has been in "platoons" and timeshares and all sorts of inconsistent playing time for two seasons already and still squeezed out 400+ PA. If he gets a chance at a more stable role this season, he should be even more valuable.
Worthing
2/24
Off topic, but when are the rest of the tiered position rankings coming out? Unless they start coming out 2-3 per week it's going to be very deep into draft season before they're finished.
derekcarty
2/25
They'll be coming fast and furious starting next week.
HeAdFiRsT
2/25
ahh the weathermen tier... so inconsistent just when you think the sun will continue to shine it starts to rain... and when it rains it pours.
billward4
2/25
Like several others, you are saying that the Tigers' offense will be better because of the addition of Fielder. But how much better could he be than the man he's replacing, Victor Martinez, was last year?
SFiercex4
2/29
billward4,

It's true that the Tigers have some regression on their way with Avilla and Peralta likely to be worse in 2012. At the same time, Fielder projects for a .321 TAv in 2012, which is significantly better than Martinez's .298 in 2011, so there is a solid amount of improvement coming the Tigers' way in that respect. Fielder is clearly the superior hitter by a decent margin over 2011 Martinez, on the order of 13 runs above average over the course of the year.
kdierman
2/27
my 2 cents ....

In my very competitive NL only league we use obp% instead of BA - so its ironic that Kelly Johnson and Soto are listed right next to each other because they both draw walks.

Soto's wild inconsistency - great rookie year outperforming his minor league averages got him security ... then he swoons - followed by a good year - followed by a swoon ...the entire time weight gain. Soto has been linked with some "marijuana use by Baseball players artcles" -He is still young.

Add in Theo Epstein - he loves players like Soto who can draw walks and hit for power .... then it was reported Soto's chance for a fresh start motivated him in the offseason to literally chisel his body.

I too see a motivated, now team elder/leader Soto having a great year should he stay healty.

Kelly Johnson - Toronto management likely will not tolerate 180k's by him .... they have publicly stated that last season when they aquired him ....thus he may be a boom or bust type of player with a lower batting average.

kdierman
2/27
Tigers ... Brandon Inge is one of the best pure athletes in all of baseball .... leyland loves him - great locker room guy - Tigers are going give him reps at 2B this spring to see if his athleticism can give them options at 2B ...

Raburn is a guy that is a good oen not to draft - and then trade for him in late May when it starts to warm up in Detroit and his fly balls make it past the warning track.
HeAdFiRsT
2/27
They need to make a poster... Brandon Inge, giving skinny suburban white kids with marginal skills hopes and dreams since 2001.
Robotey
2/29
I think it's odd how many responders claim to have not one, not two, but all three of the players profiled here. I am one of them. I overpaid for Johnson $24 in two deep NL leagues and waited forever for him to deliver. Soto was a little less, but not much. I picked up Cozart cheap and then he injured himself --suppressing his salary for 2012 by retaining his rookie status. If Cozart is anywhere near as good as PECOTA says, I'll be thrilled for $3. But Soto? Bid $15 on him?