One of the first places I look now when a “surprise” team gets my attention is at the defense. This, I guess, is the big lesson from last year’s Twins and Mariners, and a good thing to think about going forward. We can project pitching and hitting pretty well because our tools for handling past performance in those areas are sharp; it’s harder to say from year to year which teams are going to have the best defenses because we can’t say with certainty from year to year who the best fielders are. At the extremes, we’re OK–Andruw Jones is good, Jose Canseco isn’t–but there’s a big middle ground in between, and knowing who’s having a good season with the glove in May is less simple than knowing which hitters are shocking us.
One of the first places I look now when a "surprise" team gets my attention is at the defense. This, I guess, is the big lesson from last year’s Twins and Mariners, and a good thing to think about going forward. We can project pitching and hitting pretty well because our tools for handling past…