How important is Game 1? Statistically speaking, what are the odds that a team that lost Game 1 of a best-of-seven–in this case, the Yankees–can come back to take the series? To examine the issue, let’s simplify the question. Instead of looking at a best-of-seven, let’s start with a best-of-three series, like the one played…
The Baseball Prospectus staff is divided in their World Series predictions. The only consensus is–and we’re not guaranteeing this, Lou–that the series will stretch into next weekend. Jeff Bower:: Nobody has ever gotten rich picking against the Yankees in the World Series. The advent of the wild card and the expanded postseason means that even…
The Diamondbacks’ starting rotation for the World Series is a popular topic. Bob Brenly has announced this as his intent for the first four games: Curt Schilling Randy Johnson Brian Anderson Miguel Batista Assuming this holds, you can expect Schilling and Johnson to start Games Five and Six, with either Anderson or Batista in Game…
I’m a marketing snob. I’m over-educated on the topic, have too high an opinion of my own marketing skills, read and enjoy haughty, peer-reviewed journals, and tend to be way too quick to criticize what I perceive as shortcomings in the planning and execution of others when it comes to marketing. I have a relatively…
Did you know that in all of the 2001 postseason, we have yet to have a game in which both teams reached five runs scored? Just twice have both teams scored even four runs, and in one of those the fourth run for the loser was a meaningless solo home run in the ninth (Game…
Looking for some perspective? The Yankees’ current dynasty is older than the Arizona Diamondbacks franchise. Lineups (AVG/OBP/SLG/Equivalent Average) Arizona Diamondbacks SS Tony Womack (.266/.307/.345/.234) 2B Craig Counsell (.275/.359/.362/.254) LF Luis Gonzalez (.325/.429/.688/.354) RF Reggie Sanders (.263/.337/.549/.286) 1B Mark Grace (.298/.386/.466/.293) 3B Matt Williams (.275/.314/.466/.262) DH Erubiel Durazo (.269/.372/.537/.302) CF Steve Finley (.275/.337/.430/.262) C Damian Miller…
A month ago, my column "Making Statheads Cringe" did exactly that, generating a ton of responses. Unlike most other columns, reaction to the column was sharply split, as evidenced by the following two reactions: N.J. wrote: Thanks. Outstanding article. By the way, you and BP do a terrific job. D.S. wrote: Very surprising to see…
One ticket punched, one to go. The Diamondbacks went into Atlanta over the weekend and won all three games, thanks to two excellent starts by their aces and the Braves’ poorly-timed impersonation the Buckhead Little League All-Stars. Now the Snakes get to take the week off, meaning they’ll head into the World Series on rotation….
I’ll never forget where I was ten years ago this Monday. It was not the kind of earth-shattering, life-changing moment that would forever alter the world in which we live, like the moment I heard about the Challenger disaster, or watching the horrors unfold six weeks ago. But like the first time I saw my…
ALCS "We’re going to be back here for Game 6. You don’t have to ask any questions. We’re going to be back. Print it." —Lou Piniella, Mariners manager, to reporters at Safeco Field after the ALCS Game 2 loss "Boonie’s hit, on a scale of 1 to 10, was huge." —Mark McLemore, Mariners infielder, on…
One of my friends made an offhand comment to me Wednesday, something about how he thought that evening’s game would be a 3-2 contest, "just like all the other ones." The line was a throwaway one, but I thought it was a good observation. It certainly has seemed to me that the postseason has been…
For a variety of reasons, I’ve become even worse than usual about answering my e-mail from readers. I’ll use today’s column to rectify that, at least for a few people. I think Paul LoDuca deserves a few votes at least in the Rookie of the Year. Jimmy Rollins was great but look at the OPS…
All across America, people are incredulous that the New York Yankees have a date with the Seattle Mariners, while the Oakland A’s have a date with their golf pros. Everywhere you look, people are at a loss to explain what happened. How could the Oakland A’s, who many picked to go all the way, let…
Fans in New York and Seattle are happy. Fox is giddy. For many people, though, this matchup is a minor disappointment, with the Yankees’ incredible comeback denying an ALCS matchup between the two best teams of the 2001 regular season. The series we did end up with pits two teams with similar strengths, both well-suited…
Joe Sheehan, ineffectively disguising his identity with Groucho nose and glasses, asks this week’s question: Dear AFTH Guy, The Mariners tied the major-league record for wins. Looking past that, though, where do they rank historically if you look at things like run differential, or use VORP or like tools to compare them to other great…
I didn’t write a column for Monday, mostly because I couldn’t get one started. That sounds weird, but it came down to two things: So much had happened over the weekend and I was completely exasperated by the decisions made by three managers on Sunday The latter point was the bigger one. Even now, thinking…