Over the past month or so, Baseball Prospectus staffers from around the country have had the unique opportunity to host Pizza Feeds in seven different states, celebrating the coming of a new season. And what a celebration it’s been. At these Feeds, we’ve met some of the most loud, opinionated, knowledgable, and entertaining baseball fanatics in all the land–(lots of) men and (a few) women who share the same passion and exuberence for the greatest game in the world that we do. I think I speak for the entire BP crew when I say that it’s been a legitimate pleasure to convene on a few random, lonely Wednesdays and talk baseball with a group of people who are as obsessive as I am, and we thank those who attended for their support and participation. BP is nothing without its readers, and we remember that.
Troy Glaus and Jarrod Washburn causing hand-wringing in Angel Nation, injuries to Mariano Rivera and Steve Karsay have Brian Cashman frantically searching for Alejandro Pena’s phone number, and Will’s readers weigh in on Eli Marrero’s stomach ailment and a name for the labrally-impaired.
The nerdiest part of our preseason blitzkrieg, this is the second of two articles describing the final standings in each league as compiled based on our PECOTA forecasts.
After more than nine years as manager of the Montreal Expos and a short stint as bench coach for the Detroit Tigers, the San Francisco Giants hired Felipe Alou as their new manager this off-season. The architect of the strong, young Expos teams of the mid-90s faces a different challenge in San Francisco, managing a veteran club led by Barry Bonds. Continuing his series of articles from spring training in Arizona, BP correspondent Craig Elsten sat down with Alou recently, and asked him about job battles among some of the team’s weaker veterans, the challenge of nurturing pitching prospects like Kurt Ainsworth and Jesse Foppert, and building an optimal lineup around Bonds.
Well, it’s that time of year again–the time for Baseball Prospectus authors to emerge from out of their respective caves, and provide readers with further evidence that they know absolutely nothing about this game they call “base ball.” In other words, it’s time for the annual set of Preseason Predictions.
For this survey, 13 members of the Baseball Prospectus staff submitted their predictions in time for publication, covering–among other things–divisional standings, postseason standings, and end-of-season awards. Later this week, a Roundtable discussion will run in this space, discussing the predictions seen below, and probably a bunch of other topics as well. Enjoy.
First, I want to apologize for the long absence of AFTH from the web site. In addition to the usual off-season book-writing duties, I spent the winter relocating to the east coast from California as well as welcoming a new baby to the family. But I’m getting settled now, and hope to be writing AFTH and doing other research again in between feedings and diaper changes.
Will Carroll covers Eli Marrero’s suspicious acid indigestion diagnosis, Scott Elarton’s long road back, and enough Angels bumps and bruises to worry even the most rabid Rally Monkey fans (look for the bite marks).
People sometimes ask Prospectus writers what we’d do if we had $500 million, and they’re surprised when we say we wouldn’t buy a baseball team. Gary would become a scratch golfer. Jonah would build his dream house, with a gigantic rotating wheel he could run in that would power the neighborhood. I may be one of only a few who’d actually try and buy a baseball team.
Continuing his series of articles from Spring Training in Arizona, BP correspondent Craig Elsten sat down recently with Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Brooks Kieschnick. There they discussed the frustration of being sent down to the minors, the transition from college, and what it takes to be successful on both sides of the ball.
As we get closer to Opening Day, injuries are starting to take on more importance. Missing one or two games in Spring Training might mean nothing or it might mean a lost opportunity to win a job. It could mean that a retro trip to the List is about to happen or it could be the start of a cursed season. Each day, each injury is just part of the amazing journey that is any baseball season. If this spring is any indication, we’re in for one heck of a journey.
The Snakes throw excessive money at a good citizen–again. The Orioles use an injury as the latest excuse to screw with John Stephens. The Tigers’ pitching staff could be scary bad. And the Jays need health on their side if they’re to benefit from the Wells and Hinske signings.
What happens when Nate Silver’s PECOTA system joins forces with Jonah Keri’s boundless energy and Will Carroll’s injury encyclopedia? You get a killer roto team…maybe. Read on to see how BP fared at this year’s Tout Wars National League draft.
Commissioner Bud Selig recently extolled Major League Baseball’s place in the daily lives of millions of fans. This public affection for the game came just a day after the public finally learned the extent of MLB’s cold-blooded plot to take the game away from many of those fans.
Last spring, MLB settled its lawsuit with the Minnesota Twins’ landlord within days after being ordered to produce sensitive internal documents relating to contraction. Some of these documents have now been leaked to the press. As this Newsday article, and others like it, show, just months after MLB’s hand-picked Blue Ribbon Economic Panel had concluded that contraction was unnecessary, high-ranking MLB executives had begun a yearlong process of identifying which teams should be killed.
It’s not often that someone finds the answer to a question that we’ve been asking for years, but during today’s BPR taping, Mat Olkin hit me with a thunderbolt. Through the always amazing Retrosheet and the work of David Smith, Mat was able to find something back in 2001–pitch counts for the late 1940s and 1950s. It’s often an argument of the old school that most pitchers of that era threw more innings and completed more games. The argument goes that pitchers today are by extension being babied. Mat pointed out that pitchers were much more efficient–to the tune of completing games with 110 pitches.
Fresh off PECOTA’s maiden voyage into rotoland, Nate Silver publishes the PECOTA-generated roto values used by the BP team at the recent Tout Wars National League draft. Hint: pay the premium for studs.
After using PECOTA-generated roto values at the recent Tout Wars National League draft, Nate Silver runs the numbers to produce values for the AL. Hint: as in the NL, pay the premium for studs. And do everything you can to get Pedro.