The BP Staff weighs in with their mid-season ballots, showing who they think deserves an MVP, Cy Young Award, and Rookie of the Year.
Bill Mueller has done more than anyone in Boston dared hope. Jose Guillen’s shocking first-half success has helped make up for Felipe Lopez’s struggles in Cinicinnati. Rondell White and Mark Loretta could fetch some intriguing young talent for San Diego before the trade deadline. These and other news notes from the Red Sox, Reds, and Padres in this edition of Prospectus Triple Play.
Well, we’ve made it through the Futures Game and Home Run Derby without anyone getting injured. There’s still tomorrow’s game–the one that “counts”–however, and I’m halfway expecting somebody to go all Pete Rose on some catcher. Let’s just hope that the players aren’t buying into the hype as much as the entire Fox network seems to be.
That said, as expected, it was a quiet day on Monday, which gave people more time to check out the archive of Baseball Prospectus Radio and email me. People were equally divided on whether it was good interview with Jim Palmer or a blindside hatchet job. Let me assure you the truth lies somewhere in the middle, and that Mr. Palmer had more than one opportunity to speak for himself, and he declined each opportunity. I’ve given his agent the message that he has an open invitation for a full hour on BPR to discuss the game in whatever format he wishes, so I’ve done all I can to be fair despite my desire to go Paul Teutel on him. Let’s hope he does all he can to educate himself about the game he played so well.
I say this every year, but only because the thought dominates my brain for 72 hours each July: I hate the All-Star break. Two days with no games sandwiched around an exhibition contest. Yuck. Anyway, here are my midseason awards ballots, which missed the deadline to be included in the BP staff balloting by a hair or dozen. If you’re new to this column, welcome to my biases: I favor performance at up-the-middle positions, and I try to strip what a player has done from the context in which he did it as much as I can.
Randall Simon pleads his case; Phil Nevin sounds off against the All-Star Game finally “counting” for something; Barry Bonds tells why he’s not competing in the Home Run Derby this year; and Dontrelle Willis is just happy to be invited. All this and many more quips in the newest edition of The Week In Quotes.
Randy Johnson will have one more rehab start–this time at Class-A (oh, those poor kids)–before returning to Arizona. His knee has been problematic, but not so much that he’s been behind. The plan is to use him normally, but to spot him some extra rest when possible. The D’backs have found that they had more pitching depth than anyone expected, so some creative roster moves will help. Keeping Johnson balanced between useage and health will be a big test for Bob Brenly, Paul Lessard, and Chuck Kniffin. (And no, Curt Schilling’s first start performance has nothing to do with either his injury or Questec. As with Barry Zito, some pitchers just have bad days, weeks, and even years.)
The Brewers have problems all over the diamond as well as up and down the organization, but one of the brighter spots is Ben Sheets. Sheets has been effective, but he’s always had a tender back. Taking a swing in his last start appears to have aggravated his back. He’s in the Miller Park training room getting treatment twice a day and might not make his scheduled Thursday start. It’s not serious yet, but it bears watching for a team with no other options.
Kazuhiro Sasaki is finally off the stairs, has his luggage (or whatever) put away, and he’s back on the mound. While a mini-session in the pen is a long way from a return to closer duties in Seattle, it’s a good first step. Sasaki is still a minimum of three weeks from returning to games and Bob Melvin will continue to drive Derek Zumsteg nuts for the full three weeks.
Over the next two weeks, Prospectus Triple Play will cover the first halves of all 30 teams and look ahead to see what we can expect for the second half. Today, PTP examines the Marlins, Yankees, and Pirates.
The Angels are back to their old tricks. They scored eight runs on seven singles, two doubles, one home run and two walks. For the second day in a row, they bunched their hits, putting together a four-run inning late in the game. It looked a lot like last year’s team, actually: runners in motion, guys scoring on hard-hit singles, no double plays. The Angels are just eighth in the AL in run scoring (and seventh in EqA) after finishing fourth in runs (and fifth in EqA) last year. Just as they did last year, they’re scoring more runs than you would expect given what they’ve done at the plate, with 450 as opposed to a “projected” total of 437. One of the big differences between last year’s team and this one has been their propensity for hitting into double plays. Using (1B+BB+HBP-SBA-SAC) as an estimate of runners on first base, the Angels hit into a double play every 13.7 opportunities in 2002; in 2003, that figure is one every 10.0 opportunities. A team dependent on putting the ball in play has to avoid making two outs when it does. The other key element for the Angels is their defense. They have a flyball staff that needs good outfield defense to succeed, and for almost two months, they played without center fielder Darin Erstad. Erstad is largely overrated for his good batting averages and “intangibles,” but he may be the best defensive center fielder around. The Angels’ run prevention works because of him, and they missed him badly while he was out. In his absence from April 20 through June 8, they allowed 189 runs in 42 games, an average of 4.5 runs per game. The rest of the season, they’ve allowed 198 runs in 50 games, or just 4.0 runs per game. That’s the difference between being disappointing and being a contender, and a big part of that improvement is directly attributable to Erstad’s range in center field.
Milton Bradley is turning into a legitimate superstar for the Indians; Eric Gagne is on pace to have perhaps the greatest season ever for a reliever; and the Mariners’ bench is made up of a number of soon-to-be Tigers. All this and much more news from Cleveland, Los Angeles, and Seattle in your Friday edition of Prospectus Triple Play.
As we hit the unofficial halfway point of the season, and a large number of BP Staff hit Denver this weekend, I wanted to take this opportunity to say thanks to all of you who come to visit Baseball Prospectus on a regular basis, and have supported us through your purchase of the Baseball Prospectus Annual, and your subscriptions to Baseball Prospectus Premium. We had very high goals for this year, and thanks to you, we’ve not only met our goals, we’ve dramatically exceeded any reasonable or unreasonable expectations we may have had. Thank you very much.
We’ve added a number of new team members who we hope you’ll enjoy reading, and over the next few weeks and months, we’ll be rolling out a number of new features and functionality that we hope you’ll enjoy, as well as taking steps to deal with the technical and operational challenges that inevitably come from rapid growth. We know that you have high expectations when you come to Baseball Prospectus, and we’re working very hard to earn your repeat patronage.
From organization to organization, the debate rages on: tools or performance? Tools are easy to figure out. You can look at a player on the field, watch the game, and figure out the tools a guy has. Does he have a plus arm? Prolific power? Blazing speed? Scouts regularly grade those traits and send the results back to the home office. Performance on the other hand isn’t something that can be taken in during one sitting at a game. As such, some players who may lack specific tools may find it difficult to garner attention–it’s much easier to impress with say, a dash around the bases than it is with a walk.
Thanks partly to the hiring of Theo Epstein as General Manager, the Boson Red Sox now lean heavily toward the performance side of the debate. Toiling for the Sox is a flashpoint player in the tools vs. performance debate–Kevin Youkilis. While lacking in several of the tools that scouts covet, Youkilis was an offensive machine in college, hitting .405 his senior year, with 18 home runs, 61 RBI, 22 stolen bases, and a .549 on-base percentage. Still, it was not until his summer in the Cape Cod League, where he continued to rake the ball, that he finally began grabbing attention on a larger scale. Youkilis was recently chosen to represent America in the Futures Game at All-Star Weekend. BP Correspondent Mark Haverty sat down with Youkilis to discuss tools vs. performance, the Red Sox, and the Cape Cod League.
With the All-Star break just around the corner, it’s getting kind of late to dismiss disappointing performance as “just a slump.” A number of hitters counted on to put up numbers in the middle of their teams’ lineups haven’t come close to expected performance. Is the problem with the players or the expectations of them, and which guys can be expected to bounce back in the second half?
There is nothing worse in my world than what happened yesterday morning. On the road back from a meeting, I was ready for a couple of calls from radio stations. I always like going on the radio to talk baseball, whether it’s local, my own show, or anything from a major market to a college station. Instead of getting the calls and making the trip seem a bit shorter, though, I received no calls. All of this was a bit confusing until I realized my phone was dead. For those that know me, the idea of me without a cell phone is like me without a goatee or a latte; it just doesn’t seem like Will. After four hours without service and nearly an hour on the phone with a service provider that will remain nameless (but uses a hot Welsh woman in their ads), I have service and a bunch of messages. I missed calls from sources, both stations, UPS, and a former client. You can bet I’m changing my cell phone service in a hurry. Luckily, I got service back in time to make most of my calls, apologize to those I missed, and get what I need for today’s UTK.
Another upside to the day was collecting almost all of the money from the All-Star Fan Fest tickets charity auction. We’ll have $280 to donate to the American Cancer Society soon. I’d like to thank everyone that bid and the Indianapolis Indians for donating the tickets to us. Our donation will be made in honor of Alyssa Lewandowski and our thoughts and prayers are with her and her family.
The Diamondbacks lead the wild card chase–how do their chances at an NL West crown look? The Royals have opened up a 4.5-game lead in the AL Central, despite multiple setbacks. Larry Bowa, Greg Gross or both may be to blame for some of the Phillies’ offensive deficiencies. These and other news and notes out of Arizona, Kansas City, and Philadelphia in today’s Prospectus Triple Play.
One of the criticisms of the various formulae used to evaluate baseball players is that they don’t take into account everything that happens on a ballfield. Runs Created, Equivalent Average, VORP, et al rely on a player’s stat line to measure his performance, and there are elements of the game that escape the statistics. (It should be noted that with the increased availability of play-by-play information, more rigorous methods which use this data are being developed.)
The issue is a minor one. As Bill James put it nearly 20 years ago, an elephant walking through the snow leaves tracks. If baserunning, or clutch performance, or leadership, or any of the things often cited as critical omissions were that important, things like Runs Created or EqA wouldn’t correlate with actual runs as well as they do. In the big picture, what we can measure dwarfs the what we cannot, and allows us to use our analytical tools with confidence.
I bring this up somewhat tangentially because I’ve been seeing a lot of ridiculous baserunning the last couple of weeks
Vin Scully broke the news that Brian Jordan has elected to have season ending surgery to re-repair his patellar tendon. Jordan has indicated that surgery likely means the end of his career, but this hasn’t been made official yet. Jordan’s loss will further cripple an already limping Dodger offense. The question of insurance may decide how Dan Evans moves forward, but the opacity of these transactions means we’ll likely never know the effect.
While there’s no hard data, there’s plenty of anecdotal evidence to implicate the hard turf at Stade Olympique. Jim Thome is the latest to have problems with his back there, and the Phillies aren’t taking any chances. Thome was lifted during Tuesday’s game and was out of the lineup for Wednesday. Team sources say he’ll be back at first when the team moves on to New York.
Transaction talk isn’t my beat, but some moves say more about a team than anything else off the field. With Kevin Mench down for eight weeks while his fractured hand heals, the Rangers called up Laynce Nix. I’m sure Jamey Newberg (of the phenomenal Newberg Report) is excited to see the future in Arlington, but one problem with seeing the future is that it usually means the present sucks. Mench should return in the normal timeframe with no serious effects. There were some rumors that Mench was headed to Cleveland, but a source on both sides of that deal denied anything was close.