I got mad once when Ken Griffey Jr. admitted that he didn’t try for every ball. If his team was far ahead or behind in a game, he wouldn’t try to scale a wall to bring back a home run. It’s almost offensive to a fan to see players not try. I can know that the cost of a ticket’s not that high, historically speaking, and that it might not have any effect on the outcome of a game. It doesn’t matter. I want to see those ground balls run out. Unless the hitter’s injured.
The more I watch games, though, the more I’m convinced Griffey was right. Derek Jeter’s dive into the stands was dramatic and everything else people said about it, but it was also immensely dangerous. How big of a gap is it, really? When the Mariners told Edgar Martinez not to run out ground balls unless it was really important, was that worth it?
The White Sox get hurt by the Hurt’s hurt. The A’s need better luck for Dotel. The Phillies get much-needed bouncebacks from Bell and Burrell. These and other news and notes out of Chicago, Oakland and Philadelphia in today’s Prospectus Triple Play.
At press time, the Brewers had been outscored by their opponents by a handful of runs. If they can get through the year like that and still manage to stay over .500, I say, “who cares?’ When you’ve been under .500 for 11 straight years, what does it matter if the string is broken by a season that isn’t aesthetically pleasing?
The Brewskers are getting some nice defense these days. In fact, this series features two teams that are among the best in Defensive Efficiency in the major leagues. This is a good thing for Milwaukee, too, because they are, essentially, a one-man offense this year.
After not getting to a game for the first seven weeks of the season, I’ve been
living at the ballpark since Memorial Day weekend. That continued on Monday night,
as I took in the Angels/Indians game with some of the guys who have been
kicking my butt in AL Tout Wars this
season. Sam Walker of the Wall Street Journal, who is actually working
on a book about fantasy, was in town and dragged me, Jeff Erickson of Rotowire and Matt Berry of Rotoworld down to Anaheim to see the classic
Kaz Tadano/Aaron Sele match-up.
Obviously, I love baseball, and enjoy watching games whenever and wherever I
can. But a night like this one–or like last month, when I got to see an
Angels/Dodgers game with Jonah Keri, Rich Lederer, and Brian Gunn–is hard to beat.
Watching a ball game while talking baseball for three hours with people who
know and love the game might not be heaven, but you get a better view and St.
Peter gets a little bit jealous.
Despite popular belief, the Dodgers are in need of starting pitching. Despite the dominance of Johan Santana, the Twins’ offense has the team sputtering. And is it possible that Jason Schmidt has meant just as much to the Giants’ success as Barry Bonds has? All this and much more news from Los Angeles, Minnesota, and San Francisco in your Monday edition of Prospectus Triple Play.
According to the team–and confirmed through multiple sources, in order to prove to the many skeptics that there’s no smokescreen–Prior has no problems with his UCL or ulnar nerve. Instead, a bone scan showed an inflammation near the elbow. In essence, Prior has shin splints in his elbow area. The technical term is periostitis, but let’s stick with something we can all say.
Prior will not go to the DL, and based on his lack of soreness Monday after a bullpen session on Sunday, he could start on Tuesday, his regular turn. It’s much more likely that the Cubs will be cautious and let Glendon Rusch take the start. So what does this mean for Prior and the Cubs? I simply don’t know. None of my best sources had seen this type of injury before, and more than one questioned the diagnosis. Simply put, we’re in uncharted territory, and the best guide will be Mark Prior himself. Many are already questioning his toughness, but that’s the same wrong-headed locker room machismo that’s cost the game so many players in the past.
Dear Commissioner Selig:
In the tedious run-up to the recent 75th All-Star game, I noticed you mentioned in passing to reporters that you’re open to the idea of extending your reign as commissioner beyond 2006, when your present term will expire. My hopes that you will not do this are both boundless and without bound.
Listen, I don’t think you’re evil or stupid. On the contrary, I think you’ve been remarkably competent at what you’ve set out to do. I believe, for instance, that you genuinely want to diversify major league front offices. I can quibble with how you’ve gone about doing that, but the intent is a noble one. But other than that, I believe your prevailing vision for Major League Baseball, which you’ve executed with ruthless efficiency, has been thoroughly noxious to a game I can’t seem to live without.
Sure, I’ll admit my biases. Like Michael Moore and Fox News, you know where I stand: Injuries are often the difference maker. Look back to last year, when Oakland would have been a different team with Mark Mulder. Or think of St. Louis a few years ago, when when Scott Rolen’s freak accident killed the Redbirds’ attack. There are a million other examples of games lost because of players lost. After talent, health is the most important asset a team possesses.
Instead of doing full breakdowns on each team–something time and carpal tunnel precludes–I’ll focus on the team’s overall health, as well as key injuries that help determine who holds the health advantage heading down the stretch. I’ll use a grade system, rather than my typical traffic light. The rankings are just my impressions and are purely subjective, based on past and current health, the likelihood of problematic future injuries, and the whimsical nature of my late-night muse. Teams are listed in the order they stood in their divisions at the All-Star Break.
Best Matchup (best combined adjusted third-order won-loss record with both teams being over .500): Boston @ Anaheim
Here’s the deal: before the season begins, you look at your team and realize they are not going to hit as much as they did the year before. What do you do? You get some better pitchers so you can reduce the bottom line on the other side of the ball. This is exactly what Theo Epstein did, and he stated as much. And you know what? It worked. The Red Sox are projecting to give up fifty fewer runs than they did last year while losing about the same amount on the offensive side. (Because of the nature of runs scored and runs allowed, the same differential at lower totals actually results in a better record, all other things being equal. This is why it’s going to be just about impossible for the Rockies to ever win 100 games.)
The Phillies are the best team on paper, but the worst of the contenders based
on their underlying performance so far this year. The Mets and Braves, thought
to be running on the fumes of recent contenders and making the transition to
new eras, have been the best teams in the division per the Adjusted Standings Report, while the Phils
and Marlins have come in behind them.
Separated by two games entering the All-Star break, there’s not much to choose
from among these squads. They could end up giving us the most entertaining
race in baseball this year, not because they’re all good, but because they’re
all flawed. The Phils have rotation issues and a combustible manager who has
already banished his best center fielder to the minors. The Mets have serious
OBP questions outside of their lineup core, along with a rotation that is old, not big on missing bats, and likely to regress down the stretch after pitching out of their minds in the first half. The Marlins are finding out what happens when the top of their order is just a little bit worse. The Braves have just hung around long enough to get Marcus Giles back and
Rafael Furcal back in business.
The team isn’t playing that badly. They’re unlucky, not untalented. They’re hitting the ball hard, but right at people. It’ll turn around. We put together a competitive team, but losing streaks happen to even the best teams. We have all the pieces. See, Monday we had pitching, and Tuesday our bats came up big, and on Wednesday we played solid defense. It’s just that we can’t put it all together. You can see that once we’re firing on all cylinders, we’re going to win a lot of games.
One thing about playing fantasy baseball: it forces you to ask–and answer–some questions you’d otherwise never think twice about. One of the ones a friend and I debated this past off-season was: Is Phillies outfielder Pat Burrell worth keeping for the 2004 season?
For what it’s worth, Baseball Prospectus 2004 had this to say about Burrell: “Burrell’s batting average dropped 73 points from 2002 to 2003, the 42nd-largest drop in history for a player with 500 at-bats in both seasons. That’s bad enough, but there’s only one other player above him who, like him, didn’t hit .300 before plummeting. What happened?”
Thing is, batting average is one of the most volatile stats in baseball; when it spikes, we call it a “career year,” and when it falls off a cliff we call it…well, a lot of things, not many of them printable. But take another look: While Burrell’s batting average declined in 2003, his hitting peripherals–patience and power–remained very close to levels which he’d previously achieved…
The Astros say goodbye to Jimy Williams. The Cardinals keep plugging along, nursing a seven-game lead in the NL Central. And the Rangers have enjoyed one of the greatest home-field advantages in the league this year. All this and much more news from Houston, St. Louis, and Texas in your Thursday edition of Prospectus Triple Play.
So, I guess I need to open with an explanation…
Tuesday’s column was written Monday night, before the 2004 All-Star Game had been
played. I thought it might be fun to do a diary for the game in advance of it,
using the same format I used in ’03 and
’01,
and writing it as if I was doing so during the game.
I did such a good job of selling it–or such a poor job of selling the
satire–that I got a bunch of e-mails wondering what the hell I was talking about.
My fault for not being over-the-top enough, and for talking Jonah out of a
disclaimer atop the original piece. If you were confused or didn’t enjoy the
piece, please accept my apology.
With the real All-Star Game out of the way–and playing for home-field
advantage for every World Series game for the rest of the millennium wouldn’t
have saved that snoozer–it’s time to look forward to the second half. This is
shaping up to be a tremendous stretch run, with four divisions pretty much too
close to call, and a National League in which 12 teams can consider themselves
playoff contenders. We have some great individual performances to watch, trade
talk is ramping up daily, and baseball has the stage to itself for a few
weeks.
So it’s time for me to put it on the line and make my midseason calls. One
thing, before I get into all this: I have a stubborn streak, and I’m inclined
to believe that the evaluations I made in April still have merit. So for me to change a prediction takes a lot.
After graduating from college six weeks ago, I decided to embark on a classic post-college road trip (a.k.a. postponing Real Life). I eventually found myself in Houston, just in time for the All-Star Game. Given that I had less money in my bank account than the face value of the cheapest ticket to the All-Star Game, I knew scalpers weren’t going to be my route into Minute Maid Park. My mission became clear–find a way into the All-Star Game without spending a dime.
Baseball Prospectus: Looking back on the 2002 draft, for a while people may have been questioning the Twins taking Joe Mauer over Mark Prior. Now, Mauer is up in the majors and doing well. What went into the thought process of drafting Mauer over Prior? How much did Mauer being from Minnesota factor into the decision?
Terry Ryan: A little bit of the hometown aspect went into the selection. And all that’s fine, but it wasn’t the overriding factor. Economics were a part of it too. There were probably a dozen guys in that draft room, and we did our homework, so there were no big question marks. We knew that Prior was a tremendous talent, Teixeira too. We were very equal on Prior and Mauer, with Teixeira a tick behind–he had a broken (leg) at the time. In the end it didn’t matter–both guys will be great players, Prior was a tremendous pick for the Cubs.
We knew more about Mauer than any player in the draft, we’d tracked him since he was 15. We’re a left-handed-oriented organization because of the Metrodome, a lefty-hitting catcher is hard to find, and catching is probably the most difficult position to find, behind maybe only starting pitching.