The following article, written by Keith Woolner with Rany Jazayerli, appeared in Baseball Prospectus 2001. Analyzing PAP (Part One) PAP FAQ Table of Contents Long-term injury risk Pitch counts and injuries Data to be studied Identifying Injured Pitchers Defining Comparable Pitchers Career PAP as a Predictor of Injury The Workload Stress Metric The Injury Likelihood…
There are two related effects we are interested in studying. The original intent of PAP was to ascertain whether a pitcher is at risk of injury or permanent reduction in effectiveness due to repeated overwork. And in particular, does PAP (or any similar formula) provide more insight into that risk that simple pitch counts alone?
The following article, written by Keith Woolner with Rany Jazayerli, appeared in Baseball Prospectus 2001. Analyzing PAP (Part Two) PAP FAQ Table of Contents History of PAP Areas of investigation Short-term ineffectiveness Data set to be studied Performance measurements Endurance differences Initial results The Performance Index PAP vs. Performance Index Other PAP formulae Reformulating PAP…
This week’s question comes from Robert Shore, who asks:
Like many people, I was mightily impressed by Voros McCracken’s work, which strongly suggested that pitchers have essentially no effect on the conversion of balls in play to outs. It occurred to me to wonder about the converse question. Are some batters better than others in converting balls in play to base hits?
Starting today, we will be periodically running some of the best content from the new, super-charged Baseball Prospectus archives. Those new to BP may be reading this content for the first time. Long-time readers can rekindle old debates. We begin today with Keith Woolner’s look at the conversion of balls in play into outs, from 2002. To do your own mining, go to BP’s Search function. To request a specific article from the archives, e-mail jkeri@baseballprospectus.com.
There’s some merit to the argument that a few starts can skew a pitcher’s cumulative line, and there have been attempts, such as
Michael Wolverton’s Support-Neutral statistics to better model the maximum impact a single game can have on a pitcher’s value.
One common defense you hear of a pitcher–usually one of the speaker’s favorites–whose season statistics don’t quite measure up is something like: "Yeah, but if you take away the two starts when he got pounded and the manager left him in, his ERA is really good!" There’s some merit to the argument that a few…
One of the most complex and bedeviling problems in baseball today is understanding to what extent large-market teams have an competitive advantage over small-market teams.
One of the most complex and bedeviling problems in baseball today is understanding to what extent large-market teams have an competitive advantage over small-market teams. Many people have proffered solutions despite not analyzing the problem thoroughly, with most of the plans featuring some sharing of revenues between large- and small-market teams. These plans have generally…
This week’s question comes from A.F., who writes:
I recently found an article from last season by Joe Morgan that I don’t quite understand…
This week’s question comes from A.F., who writes: I recently found an article from last season by Joe Morgan that I don’t quite understand. The part I’m really struggling with is at the bottom where he writes: "My philosophy is that a pitcher’s job is to win games. His job is not to have a…
This week’s question (actually, it’s an old question, but I’m just now getting around to answering it) comes from P.W., who writes: As a Red Sox fan, I enjoy watching the Jimy Williams game of pretending that everyone is a regular. It got me thinking about lineups and percentages of playing time that go to…
This week’s question, 2002’s first, comes from Jesse Alson-Milkman: Is there any pitcher in the history of the game who has had his strikeout rate fluctuate as wildly as Mariano Rivera has? In 1996, Rivera pitched 107 2/3 innings, striking out 130 men. By 1998, he’d dropped to a low of 36 strikeouts in 61…
A month ago, my column "Making Statheads Cringe" did exactly that, generating a ton of responses. Unlike most other columns, reaction to the column was sharply split, as evidenced by the following two reactions: N.J. wrote: Thanks. Outstanding article. By the way, you and BP do a terrific job. D.S. wrote: Very surprising to see…
Joe Sheehan, ineffectively disguising his identity with Groucho nose and glasses, asks this week’s question: Dear AFTH Guy, The Mariners tied the major-league record for wins. Looking past that, though, where do they rank historically if you look at things like run differential, or use VORP or like tools to compare them to other great…
This week’s question comes from N.J., who writes: I’m going to keep writing until you answer or persuade me this is a stupid question… I’d like to see a metric that evaluates what a player has actually contributed toward winning, not just how good the player is. For example, Sammy Sosa has been a terrific…