The standings present multiple realities.
At the top, of course, there is the genuine reality, the bottom line, the real deal, terra firma: the actual wins and losses of each team. To a statistician, the actual results are just a little boring: they don’t necessarily reflect the likelihoods that this particular result would happen. The Indians, for instance, are 7-20, as of this morning. Ho-hum.
So the second reality, or the first alternate reality, is found by looking at how many games the team should have won, given how many runs they scored and allowed. There are plenty of ways to make that estimate–Rob Neyer, for one, regularly tracks the standings using Bill James’ “Pythagorean” theorem (in fact, Rob recently wrote an article on pretty much exactly what I’m doing here–and believe it or not, I didn’t read that article until after I’d finished drafting this. It must have been in the air). We’ll be just a little different.
Sixty years ago, America was at war.
That one was very different, and one of those differences was the way baseball reacted. This time around, no one from the major leagues was going to take any part in the fighting, and certainly won’t now that it’s winding down. It is unlikely that anyone from the minor leagues will take any part (if there are any minor league players who are in the Guard and have been called up, I haven’t been able to find any mention of it.)
There are a number of ways to look at how much difference the military service of ballplayers made on the quality of the league at a given time. One of the simpler ways is to compare the aggregate statistics of players coming into the major leagues to the aggregate of the players who were going out.
The Player Cards are back!
First, let me emphasize that these player cards are an ongoing project. I fully expect to be able to make future revisions to the cards themselves and the glossary without having to take everything down again. Some of these changes–like a full set of translated statistics for every player, to go with their actual statistics -are already in the works. Others -like extensions to the glossary- will follow the questions from readers.
The middle of May is a good time to take a look at the park factors around the league.
Granted, its waaayyy too early to draw firm conclusions about these; most teams still haven’t finished home-and-homes with their opponents to date, and the overall sample size is still small enough that chance has a lot to do with the results. Fact is, though, it’s a fun thing to look at.
The middle of May is a good time to take a look at the park factors around the league. Granted, its waaayyy too early to draw firm conclusions about these; most teams still haven’t finished home-and-homes with their opponents to date, and the overall sample size is still small enough that chance has a lot…
Many people have written to me about the article comparing the Japanese leagues to the American majors. Before looking at DTs of Japanese players, I’d like to address a few points common to many of those e-mails: Confusion over statistics. The statistic used in the article was Equivalent Average, not batting average. EqA values may…
Japanese baseball performance should, in theory, be as translatable as performance from any baseball league in the United States. The process has had its challenges, though: the data is not as easy to find, and much of what is available is in a language and a character set that I can’t read. (I still don’t…
[Ed. note. Clay Davenport isn’t a doctor, nor does he play one on TV. He does, however, have some interesting observations on the greatness of Barry Bonds’s 2001 season. Rany Jazayerli yields the floor to him this week.] I’m having trouble deciding which of Barry Bonds‘s new records is the most astounding. I’m pretty sure…
So the Braves went out and got themselves a "new" first baseman last week, in the person of 40-year-old Julio Franco, who hasn’t played in the majors since 1997 (well, except for one at-bat in 1999). He comes in with sterling recent credentials, if you believe that the Mexican League is, as advertised, a Triple-A-level…
Monday’s article by Keith Scherer caused a few people to inquire about a particular statement, that the International League was clearly the top minor league. The statement was inspired by a chart in Baseball Prospectus 2001, in the introduction to the Davenport Translations. Given the level of response to Scherer’s use–correct use, in this case–of…
Last week, I received a note from one of our readers, Peter Simon: Is there any chance this year’s Orioles will be the worst offensive team ever, compared to league averages? I haven’t done any statistical research of my own on it, but just looking at their lineup, things look bleak for them. The Orioles…
Just over two weeks ago, Brian Hunter‘s arbitration case was heard. The Seattle Mariners offered him $1.75 million, while the player countered with a figure of $2.45 million. To the surprise of many, Hunter won the case, and will make the higher figure in 2000. Well, that’s just the kind of thing that pricks up…
Tuesday, the Baseball Hall of fame announced its newest inductees, catcher Carlton Fisk and first baseman Tony Perez. Here’s a brief Baseball Prospectus look at each player. Carlton Fisk NAME AGE YR TEAM AB H DB TP HR BB+ SB CS OUT RUN RBI BA OBA SA UEQR EQA EQR RAR WAR CARLTON FISK 21…
The most important thing Bill James did for baseball, in my opinion, was to question the assumptions that were prevalent in the game and determined how it was played. His statistical methods were tools, and only tools, developed to help test the validity of those assumptions. Some analysts–myself included–have occasionally forgotten that point, and treated…
Here’s a look at a couple of prospects who have been turning heads with their solid play over the last month. Gabe Alvarez, 3B Bats R Born 1974 Age 24 Year Team Lge AB H DB TP HR BB R RBI SB CS Out BA OBA SA EQA 1995 R Cucmng Cal 208 60 9…
Scattershooting around the Oriole organization, plus an old favorite. Joel Bennett, SP Born 1970 Age 28 Year Team Lge IP H ER HR BB K ERA W L H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 1994 New Brit Eas 119.3 162 80 11 63 92 6.03 4 9 12.22 0.83 4.75 6.94 1994 Pawtuckt Int 21.0 23 16…