So, did anything happen while I was gone?
In an effort to keep what’s going to be a long edition to a non-Kahrlian length, and from ending up in this report with carpal tunnel agony, I’ll just say that my trip to the Bay Area was amazing. Not only was I in a small, hot conference room with what might be the most baseball mind-power short of the Winter Meetings…(or, then again)…I was able to visit Pac Bell Park, watch Barry Bonds take BP from the side of the batting cage, and spend a half hour talking with Stan Conte about everything sports med. I thank everyone involved for making it a great trip.
Onto the injuries…
Eight of the AL’s 14 teams can entertain October dreams, with the Angels’ hopes on life support just four days into the second half. The Mariners and Royals have far outplayed my expectations, and the Rangers have, for the third straight year, made me look silly for thinking they’d win. Thank god for the amazing predictability of the AL East, or I might have to give back my blue beanie emblazoned with the logo of the Certified Baseball Experts Society.
Going through the data and talking to sources brings up an interesting quirk. There are often differences cited between the AL and NL, but never such a gap in injury statistics. The AL is healthier by a large margin–if I quoted the number, you’d be stunned–and there’s no reason that jumps out. Some have long thought that the DH slot could keep some players off the DL, allowing someone to hit while not completely healthy, say Barry Bonds, Albert Pujols or Edgar Martinez. There’s no great “health gap” in any other year since adoption of the rule, so I’m loathe to assign credit or blame. There’s no changes in player patterns, medical staffs, or park effect to explain it, so in retrospect, finding that answer will be the greatest challenge and potential lesson for medheads in the second half. That said, it could be mere fluke and the NL could get really healthy for a couple months, but I don’t think so.
Remember that I grade the teams based on a couple factors–overall health compared to both league and team averages, ability to get players back ahead of schedule, lost time to DL, and effect of injuries on team results. These are not terribly scientific and should not be used for wagering. In no instance am I assigning blame; instead, I merely hope to allow comparison and quantify effect. They’re not worth arguing over.
In honor of the Mets’ rethinking their philosophy on Roberto Alomar, the corresponding White Sox dump of D’Angelo Jimenez, and that inevitable day in the future when Alfonso Soriano plays a bad center field for the Mets, here is a top 10 list of 11 trades and transactions involving some of the best keystone commandos ever to play the game. Note that most of these moves are spectacularly lopsided; apparently it’s a rare thing to come up with a two-way second baseman, but rarer still to recognize what you have, or know how to hold on to him.
The Expos have cooled after their blazing hot start; the Giants have had their share of Good, Bad, and Ugly; and the Blue Jays pitching leaves something to be desired. All this and much more news from Montreal, San Francisco, and Toronto in your Friday edition of Prospectus Triple Play.
”Over the course of nine innings hundreds of silent signs and signals are given and received by managers, coaches and players…” So begins Paul Dickson’s new book, The Hidden Language of Baseball (Walker Books, $22.00). Hidden serves as a history of this fascinating, though often misunderstood, part of baseball. Prospectus correspondent Peter Schilling Jr. discussed with Mr. Dickson the nature of signs and sign stealing in baseball today, as well as the controversy surrounding Bobby Thomson’s ”Shot Heard ‘Round the World.”
In part one of this review inspired by the Mets’ excision of Roberto Alomar from their midst–call it a celebration if you must–we stumbled over the desiccated remains of transactions involving Frankie Frisch, Rogers Hornsby, Eddie Collins and others on the way to a subjective ranking of the most misguided second baseman swaps in history. Part two revisits the five most self-destructive acts of abnegation by teams that had the goods but let them get away.
This column isn’t about Bud. It’s about Tuesday’s USA Today feature, What’s the Problem with Baseball?” and its companion, “Ten Ways to Improve Baseball.” In the same week that USA Today won praise from Time for its journalism, it published a pair of articles which would embarrass a small-town weekly. These articles were built around the results of a Gallup Poll conducted from June 27-29. The complete results of this survey, with historical data for context, are available from the Gallup Web site. Comparing USA Today’s breathless hyping of baseball’s “problems” to the actual data shows how authors Peter Barzilai and John Follaco selectively reported the results that supported their conclusion.
The health of the American League has been, well, average. Teams near the top of their divisions have dealt with injuries more than they’ve avoided or overcome them. As baseball heads into the second half, teams will watch for signs of fatigue, and the interplay between team medical staffs and the field staff becomes key. A trainer spotting bad mechanics, keeping a player from turning a tweak into a tear, or returning a guy ahead of schedule, can be worth a win or two. I grade the teams based on a number of factors: overall health compared to both league and team averages, ability to get players back ahead of schedule, lost time to DL, and effect of injuries on team results. These are not terribly scientific and should not be used for wagering. In no instance am I assigning blame; instead, I merely hope to allow comparison and quantify effect. They’re not worth arguing over.
As you’ll recall, last week we took a gander at the minor-league careers of today’s elite pitchers. This time around, it’s the less-than-stellar crowd that gets the once-over.
It’s a group I like to call Group B: all active pitchers who have, as of the end of the 2002 season, pitched at least 500 innings and posted a park-adjusted ERA+ of 95 or less (at least five percent worse than the league average). Just like last time, I’ve attempted to isolate those minor-league innings that are developmental in nature–i.e., not an injury rehab assignment or late-career retread work.
The Cleveland Indians farm system received a large amount of recognition during the past year. Cleveland’s pool of developing talent went from barren to overflowing with a few wise trades, compensation draft picks for free agent losses, and emerging prospects all coinciding last summer. Their major league roster contains 11 rookies, and an influx of talent like that will almost certainly result in a depleted minor league stable. The Indians’ young talent base doesn’t end in Cleveland, however…
The Angels’ bullpen has been lights out beyond belief; Sammy Sosa has really turned it around; and Dmitri Young was a legitimate All-Star pick, no matter what your friends try to tell you. All this and much more news from Anaheim, Chicago, and Detroit in your Thursday edition of Prospectus Triple Play.