Anyway, let’s go on to the minors. I apologize if there’s not a lot of breadth here; I’m focusing on those guys who I’ve been able to talk to some scouts about, and I’ll get to more over the course of the season. I’m concentrating on guys with some upside, or guys who, for some reason or other, are interesting because their level of performance may have changed.
It took most of the first month, but BP’s team in the League of Alternative Baseball Reality edged out of the cellar and all the way up to 11th place. And we didn’t have to fire anybody to do it.
It took most of the first month, but BP’s team in the League of Alternative Baseball Reality edged out of the cellar and all the way up to 11th place. And we didn’t have to fire anybody to do it. Most of the gain has come on the pitching side, where the return of Greg…
Since we’re about a month into the season, and I’m getting a lot of mail with specific questions about prospects, I thought I’d bounce through some of the early performances from the minors and talk to a few scouts. Originally, I had hoped to have a Win Shares review done by now, but the responsible…
For this study, I estimated career VORP for the BA’s top 100 prospects from 1990 through 1997, that is, those who have had at least five years to prove themselves. I used the rule of thumb that 10 runs of value moves one game into the win column. This is what I found:
Can a "can’t-miss prospect" miss? Will young pitchers really break your heart? Last year, in a highly entertaining Baseball Prospectus roundtable Joe Sheehan remarked: I would submit that there are no circumstances in which a pitcher is the best prospect in baseball. To which Derek Zumsteg replied: If a pitcher can’t be the best prospect…
Bonds, over his last 100 games or so, is perhaps the biggest statistical outlier in the game’s history. He breaks the formulae, in that the many walks Bonds takes are, collectively, less valuable than our usual tools for evaluating such things would perceive. He’s being given so many walks in RISP/first-base-empty situations that they are, if not a negative, certainly not the positive that, say, linear weights might indicate. They’re not a bad thing–and they certainly don’t warrant the kind of “Bonds should swing more” analysis that has been proffered–but the context of the walks is something to consider when evaluating his performance.
Yesterday, I provided an overview of Barry Bonds‘s amazing performance so far this season, and reaching back to the latter part of 2001. There’s no question that Bonds is the most dangerous hitter in the game today. However, I do believe that we’ve run into a problem with our advanced metrics. Bonds, over his last…
The type of analysis that we perform is an outgrowth of a passion for the game that we all had long before we ever knew about strikeout-to-walk ratio or context-neutral performance or career paths.
Thatï¿½s Barry Bonds’s on-base percentage, a figure that is so far off the charts as to be mind-boggling.
This week’s question comes from Robert Shore, who asks:
Like many people, I was mightily impressed by Voros McCracken’s work, which strongly suggested that pitchers have essentially no effect on the conversion of balls in play to outs. It occurred to me to wonder about the converse question. Are some batters better than others in converting balls in play to base hits?