I’m proud to say that something I named is being discussed on MLB Network. Tom Verducci found what he called the Year After Effect and I found it, years later, calling it the “Rule of 30″, which lives on inside the Team Health Reports. After discovering I was repeating his work, I decided to start calling it the Verducci Effect. (He didn’t name it after himself.) It’s stuck and I’m glad. Verducci deserves the credit.
He was on MLB Network with Victor Rojas (FOP) discussing the reasons behind it and the pitchers to watch out for. Say what you will about MLB Network — and I do — but they’ve got the time and resources to do a lot more of this, educating people. Whether it’s injury management, WPA, or a million other things, there’s an opportunity, even if the market is small.
There’s a lot of intriguing looks at the Verducci Effect from around the web. There’s probably more I’ve missed, but I wanted to point to this one by kinda-BP Idol finalist Jeremy Greenhouse. If it’s there or not there at a deeper statistical level — and I’ll be honest, I don’t have a firm grasp on Jeremy’s methodology — it’s great that we’re looking at it. I think on a more superficial level, it’s still a nice rule of thumb. I know there are others looking at it, but I do want to point out that I think the stats are much less important than getting to the root of the problem: how do teams effectively manage the health and workload of starting pitchers?