We threw our contestants a curveball in Round Six: pick a game and write an article using that game’s story as a starting point. Not much bend in the concept so far, but the games were on Thursday, and the article was due Friday. We’ve mentioned several times during this competition that we’re looking for people who can be assigned a topic and produce strong content on deadline, and in Deadline Week we put our remaining contestants to the test. Selected comments from our judges:
“I really liked this as almost a sit down with the game and just let the stream of consciousness flow.” — Kevin Goldstein, on Ken Funck
“Really good stuff, all in all.” — Christina Kahrl, on Tim Kniker
“This article just proves that even a good writer can’t pull off a bad concept.” — Will Carroll, on Brian Oakchunas
“I really liked that Matt did such a good job of using a single game to make an interesting, much more broad point about World Series rematches.” — Kahrl, on Matt Swartz
“Look at the graf that starts with “I would have let Rasmus …” No offense to Brian here, but La Russa has 2,500 wins, so I would have liked to have seen something more than opinion.” — Carroll, on Brian Cartwright
It’s getting harder and harder to let people go here–you’ve commented on it, and we’ve certainly said it ourselves. But after tabulating the results, we have to say goodbye to Brian Oakchunas–Brian, thank you and best of luck.
Now on to happier news: we’re looking for topic suggestions for one of the final rounds of the competition this year. I know we’ve seen some from you all in various comment threads, but in this particular one please leave any ideas you have, and use the ratings and reply buttons to make your feelings known on other commenter suggestions. We’ll have a look at them and pick the ones we like for use in an upcoming round of Prospectus Idol.
I'd like to see the contestants constructively -- but thoroughly -- write columns critiquing a BP column's analysis. Extra points if the critique is of one of the judges' columns.
How about articles about potential changes to the structure of the game (could be rules, league buildup, minors, amateurs) and why they would take that direction
These articles aren't much fun. They get you all riled up about how badly something needs to change. You leave thinking its a great idea. And...nothing, the rule in question won't change.
My topic suggestion- an article suggesting a hypothetical trade between two teams and an analysis of why the given trade would be justified from each team's perspective. I have always loved the valuation aspect of statistical analysis in baseball, and I think this topic would challenge the contestants to take a proactive look at a major league trade rather than a reactive one (i.e. the analysis of the McClouth trade ex post facto).
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How about something different? Make them write an article on Basketball. After all, you guys also run the Basketball Prospectus and Puck Prospectus site and there may be some crossover there.
An analysis of the equipment in the game. Possible topics would include:
an historical review of players' or umpires' protective gear;
analysis of bats / balls / gloves / mitts / hats / cleats;
training and medical facilities/techniques;
etc.
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Potential topic: Write an article based on a reader's question (or comment). The judges could either make one up, or could contact a few readers for suggestions.
Seriously though, congratulations on making it this far.
I love all the topic suggestions so far. One other suggestion, answer the question, "what is the most under/overrated commodity in the MLB market today?"
Umpiring. Choose a topic that interests you regarding the men in blue and develop it, preferably analytically rather than anecdotally. Possible topics (but I'm sure you guys can do better):
* What did interleague play tell us about differences, if any, between umpiring in the AL and NL?
* Do strike zones look any more consistent this year than last year?
* Based on what you've seen, who would be your choice to umpire the World Series, and why?
Definitely something timely and on everyone's minds as we head towards the trading deadline. The suggestion of evaluating possible/projected trades is an interesting one. A historical analysis of particular past trades would also work.
Hypothetical trades? Projected/possible trades from guys without the experience/connections/creditionals to have any inside information? Please, no thank you.
Thanks to BP for the opportunity and thanks to all of you who read and voted for my work. It's been great fun.
I'll throw out an article idea. The last two contestants should have a very open-ended topic: write a column that is to be a model for what you regularly plan to do here at BP. Include a brief explanation of how it embodies the things you plan to do with your space.
Seconded on Brian's article idea. I think the contest has given all of us a general sense of each person's main strengths and interests, but I think it would add something to let them describe it in their own words.
What about a how would you fix an organization type thing. For example, contestants could choose an organization that either was below .500 last year, or is below .500 this season and write up an article as to how they would go about fixing them if they were the GM.
Hardcore analysis could obviously be necessary and identifying an organization's biggest weaknesses (both in the majors and minors) and what type of players would help fix them would be very important.
These four contestants have been my favorites from the beginning and I'd love to see how they would take on this task.
My suggestion for a topic involves roster analysis. Have each writer take his favorite team and break down the current 25 man roster (and 15-day DL players). Is the roster built for the playoffs? Is it built for the future? Is the roster languishing in the doldrums (thanks, Ken)? How would the writer improve the roster if given the chance to play GM for a day?
I would love to see a column that teaches BP readers how to use Excel to create a database and then how to manipulate the database to answer research questions.
1) "Take a cliche, any cliche" - and make an article out of it. Isn't that one of the fundamental premises of BP - look at the established wisdom (i.e., "The Book") and see if it holds water? I think of "bunt to stay out of the double play", "a walk's as good as a hit", and "guard the line late in a tie game" as examples. The first one has been pretty much refuted, the second one has a Win Expectancy matrix that dictates when it's true, and the third one is unexplored territory AFAIK. The writer has to pick a cliche that we'll find interesting, but not one that's been analyzed to death, and then make a case for or against it.
2) "The Unbreakable Record" - make a case for why the career or single-season record that you think will never be broken is unassailable. Better yet, do one of each so we can weigh both assessments as a whole. Career wins or HRs? Single-season ERA or triples?
Or rank the unbreakable records by order of how unlikely they are to be broken. I suspect "most career losses by a manager" would prove to be the most unassailable of all -- but is it?
On the cliches one -- how about "what commonly held beliefs in baseball are shakiest?"
I've always thought Cy Young's wins record was the most unassailable, though Connie Mack's is also up there.
both of those records are likely not breakable because of changes in how baseball is played. Pitchers do not make 50 starts a year, and managers are not hired for life.
what about a record that is mathematically improbable, but was set under similar conditions as are around today? For that, I'd say DiMaggio's 56. Batting averages are about the same today as they were in 1941.
Team with a BP writer to collaborate on an article. Use Will's injury expertise, Kevin's prospect knowledge, Christina's transaction analysis, Marc's fantasy chops, Steven's history etc... to enhance any article they want to do. I'd love to see what these guys can do with that, and I think it would be fun.
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It might be interesting to pick a player, and have everyone write a column relating to him. Preferably someone with an interesting, unusual, and controversial inside the analysis community, career. Hmm. Like Derek Jeter.
It'd be really interesting what people would do with the topic of Derek Jeter.
I'd like to have the contestants do a Joe Sheehan like column where they give their take on something current and newsworthy, or three things newsworthy.
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We can't talk about sports without talking about gambling.
Pick a day. Check the lines. Have the final four make five "bets" or give them $500 to win as much as possible on the day's games. Have everyone write an analysis of their picks. Include over/unders, run lines, etc. Biggest loser is gone.
My suggestion would be an analysis tied into potential 2010 free agents, either focusing on a particular player, a particular position or an overview of the entire market.
I get your point, though I am interested in the cost-benefit comparison of potential free agents and that wasn't a feature in the player profiles so far.
Here's a topic: "Baseball Honors" (or some other phrase that could adequately allow discussion ranging from the Hall of Fame to All-Star selections to the BBWAA Annual Awards and beyond).
I don't personally get really worked up over these honors, but whether I like it or not, they're a huge focus of contemporary baseball journalism and these folks are aspiring baseball journalists...
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I'll give a thumbs up to anyone who comes up with a good metric that makes Dawson a Hall of Famer... it's kind of interesting how I'm starting to see discussions elsewhere on how OBP is getting outdated.
Argue either/both sides of the "salary cap" issue.
If arguing for it, including a comparison of how MLB's would differ or be similar to those of the other major sports.
If arguing against it, include suggestions as to how to keep a semblance of parity across the sport, while maintaining affordability for the average fan.
Interesting. Gordon proposed exactly what I was thinking and got a whole bunch of minuses for it. (Carns68 proposed something similar). Oh well, I'll second the suggestion anyway:
Have them write an editorial, an opinion piece, obviously on a baseball topic. Something appropriate for the Op-Ed page of the New York Times. I'd like to see them write about something they feel strongly about and provide the support for that argument.
I would like to see an article on the value of having a commissioner who is not a representative of the owners but rather someone who is only (and truly) responsible for the best interests of the game. What are some of the issues that are inherently problematic for Commish/"former" Owner Selig and that might be handled differently by a truly neutral party? What possible changes could be made?
Or: The movies "Bull Durham" and "Field of Dreams" provide two views on baseball, America, and coming of age. Discuss.
I would like to see the finalists do a thoughtful analysis of some thorny issue that tends to stir up emotions. Examples might be steroids or salary caps, but there are others. To date, they have convincingly demonstrated that they can write in an entertaining fashion, and that means a lot to me since I mainly come to BP for entertainment. But I would like to see these gentlemen tackle a more complicated and divisive issue than some that have been addressed so far.
For position players, the most dismissive valuation that can be received, I believe, is that he "is not an every day player." I have frequently come upon this comment about a player whose mix of skills I have come to appreciate, but who never does seem to have the edge to command a regular lineup position. As frequently as I am irritated by this comment, I also have to admit, at the end of a season (or given a sufficient sample size), the evaluation was correct.
So, for the prospect (or roster occupant) who "just doesn't seem to have it to become an everyday player", what are the telltale signs (is it one, or a cluster, of them? What are they?) Examples drawn from current players who are proving the hypothesis? Examples drawn from those who overcame the diagnosis to have careers?
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I'd love to see a time period piece, either:
An article set in 2020 (perhaps using hypothetical futuristic metrics), or
An article set in the past (pre Bill James) that speaks to BP's audience, uses the writing style of the time, but can't use any later created analysis tools.
When speaking with CK and some other BPer's at the Sabrmetrics event at Comiskey last month (I know, I'm old fashioned), we got talking about connections between models like PECOTA and the tools used in financial analysis. One of the key innovations in finance in recent years has been the greater attention to volatility, moving away from averages and looking at how variable different indicators are. I don't recall having seen much in the way of attention to, say, consistency as a measure of player value. There is, some, in year-over-year analysis of relief pitchers, but has anyone tried to use the volatility in-year stats to get an idea of how likely a particular player is to regress to the mean or how long a slump is likely to last?
I think this could be fun (though I likely shouldn't offer a suggestion), but...
How about "re-writing" one of the other still-alive contestant's articles, but in your own style. When we get down to three, Contestant A has to rewrite a Contestant B article, Contestant B has to rewrite a Contestant C artcile, and Contestant C has to rewrite a Contestant A article.
I would like to third the open ended idea. I want to see what original ideas these guys can come up with. The stipulation would be that it couldn't have been published somewhere before.
Brian is the first contestant to be eliminated that I've voted for most weeks -- including this week. I'm really sorry to see him go. I've pretty consistently enjoyed his articles and hope to see him writing somewhere regularly.
A couple of story ideas:
1. Pitching coaches, batting coaches -- which ones can be shown to improve players' stats, and which ones are ineffective or worse?
2. Switch hitting: which players do it effectively, and which ones should stick to one side of the plate?
3. The two articles on La Russa made me wonder if there is any relationship between how intrusive a manager is and how well the team does.
4. The Marco Scutaro question: How often is the utility infielder actually more effective than the every-day guy he sometimes replaces?
Maybe this would be too hard, but maybe we could challenge the remaining writers to write about in-game strategy. A common theme in BP articles is that managers tend to just do what other managers do. Are there good ideas not being implemented? Easy (boring) topics would be the 4-man rotation and using closers for more than the 9th inning. I would expect, though, that at least one writer would be able to think of something really clever.
How about this for a challenge: Where do the Pirates go from here? If you were the Pirates GM what is your plan for the next three months of the season? The off-season? The next few years?
When a runner on first tries to steal base, the batter will "swing to protect the runner". Write and article examing the validity of this tatic. The only concern I have is that the necessary data may not be available.
How about: the effect on player stats on home-field scoring decisions.
How often do you see a fielding miscue called a hit? My impression is that some scorers -- perhaps most scorers -- make some of their calls to make the home team look good.
You can presumably get at scorer bias statistically. Team error rates at home vs on the road; home vs visitor error rates at each park, and so on. Is it possible to come up with a correction factor for scorer bias, then apply that to player stats? I suspect the biggest changes would be to fielding stats.
(Yes, I realize that it would be tough to come up with a clean statistical adjustment. The Red Sox DO field more cleanly than the visitors at Fenway -- they know where the balls hit off the wall will land and such. But I think that looking for possible scorer bias might show us some interesting things.)
In the Mariners-Yankees game on Tuesday, Ichiro hit a weak grouder to the pitcher, and Joba completely missed it (Cano then bobbled it as well, but by then it was too late). It was an obvious error by Joba, but the official scorer gave the hit to Ichiro, presumably because Ichiro gets a ton of hits.
In the 90s through the early 00s, was it better to be the Atlanta Braves and Cleveland Indians (regular contenders with only one championship between them) or the Florida Marlins (2 time world champion with no other good seasons and still no division championships)?
Another suggestion, if Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, Rafael Palmeiro and Mark McGwire are cheaters for using steroids, are our baseball heroes of the past cheaters for popping stimulants which most freely admit they did.
A topic suggestion... How do we bring SABRmetrics to a broader audience?
Clearly it's influence is growing, but I would love to hear the ideas of the contestants on how to continue the maturation process on a general public level.
We hear a lot at BP about the consequences of short benches and bloated bullpens. Let's see some actual quantitative analysis -- analyze the difference between carrying a 12th (or 13th) pitcher vs another bat/glove.
-Another vote for the salary cap/revenue sharing analysis.
-Another vote for the team fixes fot struggling franchises. But, for many of these teams, especially the smaller market ones, it may be simply "draft better".
-Related to that, it would be good to analysis on the affects of spending differences and odds of playoff participation. I have a strong bias on this, but let the data say what it will.
-Another vote for umpire analysis using the pitch tracking data. How consistent with the official zone are they? How internally consistent are the umpires (e.g. a ball out of zone but in a particular place they call a strike, how consistent are they?) If biases do emerge, what are they? Franchise? Relative status/tenure of the hitter vs. pitcher (e.g. Pujols vs. scrub, who gets the calls)? Home vs. away? Specific players (e.g. "blacklisted" players)?
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I'd like to see the contestants constructively -- but thoroughly -- write columns critiquing a BP column's analysis. Extra points if the critique is of one of the judges' columns.