Everyone likes a good list. ESPN has them. Baseball America publishes them. Even our own experts Jay Jaffe (Prospectus Hit List) and Kevin Goldstein (Prospects Lists) provide them for our readers.
This past week I received my copy of the Sporting News and noticed it was the Top 50 MLB Players issue. SN boasts that a panel of experts made up of ”Hall of Famers, major award winners and other baseball personalities” cast their ballots for the top players in the game today.
Among the experts included Willie McCovey, Stan Musial, Brooks Robinson, Tony Gwynn, Tom Seaver, and Greg Maddux. But the expert tag was also pinned on Tom Henke, Tim Salmon, and (cringe) Steve Phillips. Well at least they didn’t ask Joe Morgan for his opinion!
Given the panel, I, of course, had to immediately discount the validity of the player list. I mean, come on…what makes Tom Henke an expert analyst?
There are other problems, though, too with trying to analyze this list. SN didn’t spell out any parameters or outline any criteria for what makes these 50 players the best in the game. Was age a consideration? How about future potential? Or injury status? We just don’t know. Since Mariano Rivera is #9 on the list, age probably didn’t mean all that much to the voters. But they did recognize the likes of Ian Kinsler and Chad Billingsley so I guess future stardom did figure into some of their thinking.
However the panel arrived at their decisions, we need to take the results with a grain of salt. Still, it’s fun to pick apart the “expert” choices especially when Steve Phillips is part of the evaluation process!
Below are the SN 2009 top 50 player rankings together with their respective 2008 VORP (for reference purposes):
Sporting News Rank - 2008 VORP
1. Albert Pujols 98.60
2. Alex Rodriguez 62.90
3. Johan Santana 73.60
4. Manny Ramirez 48.40
5. Hanley Ramirez 78.60
6. Chase Utley 63.50
7. Roy Halladay 70.60
8. Derek Jeter 34.70
9. Mariano Rivera 34.30
10. Chipper Jones 75.90
11. Ryan Howard 36.40
12. Grady Sizemore 59.10
13. David Wright 66.10
14. Justin Morneau 47.10
15. Jimmy Rollins 44.30
16. Josh Beckett 34.60
17. Mark Teixeira 35.20
18. Dustin Pedroia 60.00
19. Tim Lincecum 72.30
20. Evan Longoria 35.30
21. Lance Berkman 73.10
22. Jose Reyes 62.90
23. Carlos Beltran 57.60
24. Ian Kinsler 54.80
25. Zack Greinke 44.30
26. Josh Hamilton 57.40
27. Alfonso Soriano 32.10
28. Miguel Cabrera 43.50
29. CC Sabathia 51.90
30. Ichiro Suzuki 34.60
31. Brandon Webb 51.00
32. Ryan Braun 44.40
33. Dan Haren 53.70
34. Francisco Rodriguez 22.80
35. Matt Holliday 61.70
36. Kevin Youkilis 53.60
37. Vladimir Guerrero 41.00
38. Jake Peavy 50.60
39. Joe Mauer 57.00
40. Carlos Quentin 51.30
41. Jason Bay 48.30
42. Chad Billingsley 50.60
43. Cliff Lee 76.50
44. Torii Hunter 32.50
45. Victor Martinez 4.30
46. Roy Oswalt 43.30
47. Carlos Delgado 38.50
48. Carlos Zambrano 36.10
49. Cole Hamels 55.50
50. Brian McCann 52.00
My initial reactions?
Overrated: Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Carlos Delgado, Francisco Rodriguez (is there a NY theme developing here?), Jimmy Rollins, Justin Morneau, Ichiro
Underrated: Cole Hamels, Brian McCann, Victor Martinez, Kevin Youkilis, Zack Greinke, Ryan Braun, Joe Mauer, Chad Billingsley
Notable Omissions: Nick Markakis, Prince Fielder, Jon Lester, Derek Lowe, Matt Cain, Jonathan Papelbon, Carlos Lee
Not bad, actually. I'd add Ryan Howard to your "overrated" list (is there an "egregiously overrated" list for him?) and Lance Berkman to the "underrated" list (while removing Ryan Braun, Kevin Youkilis and Victor Martinez from it), and it surely wouldn't be wrong to find room for Aramis Ramirez (the real power behind the Cubs) at the expense of Soriano, etc. However, this comes a lot closer to the real 50 best players -- whoever they may be -- than most lists of its kind.
I guess I just don't see how Joe Mauer could be ranked 39th.
Arguably the best hitter in the league not named Albert Pujols - while playing a premium defensive position who has won two batting titles in the last three years and is an MVP candidate on a yearly basis.
This list lost all credibility with me when it had Derek Jeter ranked #8 - but if you read the Todd Jones column in the same Sporting News issue, you would see how much love continues to (wrongly) spew out in Jeter's direction.
I agree that Mauer is underrated on this list, but I don't agree about Jeter and credibility. It's easy to home in on his big shortcoming (defensive range, which I agree is overlooked not just for him but for many others on this list) and forget the enormous number of things that he does right, and has done right for fifteen years. Sustained excellence does count for something, even if it's not Pujols-level sustained excellence ("sustained awesomeness"?).
"Arguably the best hitter in the league not named Albert Pujols..."
Yes: very, very, very arguably. It's gonna take more than a month of power to convince me he deserves to have even a sniff at being called the second best hitter in baseball.
Excellent hitter? Second-best in baseball? No. Perhaps one day, but not yet.
Eh, with career VORP, players like Sheffield, Smoltz, heck, even Moyer would float to the top. You really want to judge the top 50 players based on career VORP?
I'm not sure that the last 8 weeks of play should really put Greinke ahead of Sabathia. Up until the start of this season it was a no-brainer regarding Sabathia. Rarely should 8 weeks change relative values that dramatically.
I don't know if I'd put Greinke above Sabathia, though it helps that Greinke's 3 years younger and hasn't been worked as hard as Sabathia has (though Sabathia at 28 isn't particularly old either). On the other hand, Sabathia has a better track record and we really don't know much if Greinke's anxiety disorder is prone to a relapse...I guess it depends on whether I am picking players for this year, or picking players to be the long-term cornerstone of a franchise. I think it's a tough pick either way, and I couldn't really fault a person for preferring one over the other.
I think this list has the same issue as Rany's old Prospects list, in that it really isn't clear what is meant by Top 50 MLB Players...The Top 50 from last year, Top 50 for this year, Top 50 for the future, Top 50 for the past, etc...
Which may explain why Steve Phillips influence isn't more visible...he may have been confused and accidentally picked the Top 50 MLB Players Whose Names I Can Spell.
Of course not, but the list isn't "best value for dollar" -- on which Jeter wouldn't be close to the top. That's the lot of top players in their decline phase: you're no longer good value for dollar even if you're still a big asset to your team. I think even Phillips might understand that one, although perhaps I overestimate him.
career vorp is useful in comparing players with similar roles. a closer may be a better pitcher by ability, but given his role the vorp will be low. also does not take into account defense.
I think that the numbers for Manny and Teixeira do not include what they did with both teams they played for, though for Jason Bay they do. I'm sure that's just an oversight.
As regards Chipper v. Longoria, Longoria has a slight edge in ISO, but given his K problems, it's hard to believe he'll have a BA that gives him better than a .340-.350 OBP or so. Sure, Longoria is much more durable, and a better defender, but Chipper is sustainably a .430 OBP or so hitter. .08 or .09 of OBP will make up a LOT of faults.
Its ridik that Jeter is behind Rollins and Reyes. you can make an argument that jeter's the 4th best shortstop, but no higher than that. gonzalez is a glaring omission. And Russell Martin over Delgado should def be there. and quentin over bay i dont like. even tho im a yankees fan. 11-1
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DOES BASEBALL PROSPECTUS NOT LIKE MORNEAU?????????????????? He is not overated. DEREK STINKEN JETER IS OVERATED. Justin Morneau is a great player. He isn't quite as good as Joe Mauer, (he's close though) but without the both of them in our lineup, the Twins would STINK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Mauer should be At Least 10th on this list. I would love it if a Baseball Prospectus writer answered this comment, because it seems that you all HATE Morneau. It might be because the Twins are totally unappriciated, but I thought that Baseball Prospectus would look past the media, and see that Morneau DESERVED THE RANKING HE GOT!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Maybe if you watched the Twins games, instead of looking at the OBP-happy PECOTA (That's the only reason that Mauer is "more valuable")you'd get the fact that every Twins fan knows already: MORNEAU IS GREAT!!!!!!!!!!!! Sorry for the rant, I just wish that people who didn't live in Minnesota, and people who don't see every Twins game, would give Morneau the credit he deserves.
I still love this website, I just have an issue with the bias against Justin Morneau, and the Twins in general.
Where would Raul Ibanez fit into this list? His offensive performance so far has been excellent, but from a statistical perspective he may just be good, not exceptional...
One minor correction to the data: The 2008 VORP for #29, CC Sabathia, is listed at 51.9. It was, in fact, something like 77.4. I believe the 51.9 is merely the VORP he compiled in his 1/2 season with the Brewers and does not include his 1/2 season with the Indians. CC was not merely an excellent pitcher in '08 as the listed VORP would suggest, but the best pitcher in baseball.
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It's actually not as bad as I might have thought.
Carlos Delgado's inclusion nullifies any notion of the list's quality.
Jeter's ranking makes it a terrible list - no credibility.