In addition to the materials I mentioned the other day, I ended up with one significant additional resource at the AL Tout Wars auction Saturday morning. Derek Jacques showed up to help track values, in particular manning the Player Forecast Manager and the Team Health Reports grid, while serving as sounding board and not being allowed to bid on David Ortiz.
The team BP ended up with was exactly as planned: one starter (James Shields), one closer (Joakim Soria) and an inexpensive staff around them picked for their skills, especially ability to keep ERA and WHIP low. I think I can do very well in those two categories. The plan allowed me to spend on offense, and I feel that I grabbed a lot of value and only overpaid in a couple of spots.
There was one other guideline I followed. See if you can suss it out from the roster:
C Mauer 14
C Kottaras 2
1B Morneau 30
2B Casilla 13
SS M. Izturis 3
3B Longoria 29
MI Cedeno 1
CI Larish 1
OF Ad. Jones 22
OF Choo 18
OF Upton 34
OF Buck 4
OF Teahen 6
UT Saltalamacchia 10
P Rowland-Smith 3
P Shields 23
P An. Reyes 6
P Niemann 2
P Gallagher 2
P Porcello 2
P E. Ramirez 1
P Soria 28
P R. Ramirez 1
Derek had the THR grid available the whole time, and it was a factor in most bid/no-bid decisions. There were a lot, and I mean a lot, of players who I wasn't going near due to age or THR color.
I love Joe Sheehan, one of the best in the business at what he does, but to think he'll be at the top of ERA/WHIP with rowland-smith, an. reyes, porcello, gallagher, and Niemann on the staff is just wishful thinking. To get Edwar and Ramon at a $1 a piece are great picks though, the benefit of increasing the player pool by not requiring players to be on ml roster or dl. we'll see with the ERA/WHIP.
I actually like the picks of Rowland-Smith and Reyes. Depending on the league and how things turn, you could punt/trade saves and stash those guys in RP slots (should be eligible) and steal some wins and good count stats from a place where not everyone will be able to.
Also, I think Rowland-Smith will certainly benefit from having a greatly improved OF defense in a very good pitchers ball park.
Interesting flexibility. You should be able to move Salty to C and ditch Kotteras at some point. Teahen should gain MI qualification and then Cedeno can hit the highway. The tough part will be in getting some players that will give you production in those spots, but UT and OF should be "easier" to get somebody who can produce better than Kotteras and Cedeno. Unfortunately you don't have a RES who has a sure path to step into one of those spots. Although LaPorta could be big if things break your way, Raburn not so much, but I can't think of much better upside off the top of my head. Gordon Beckham? Nah.
Saltalamacchia for $10 in the UT spot is terrible value. He should be in the C spot and you should have taken a player like Crede for $2 rather than Kottaras (these are their values in the PFM so I'm assuming that's how you chose to bid $10 for Saltalamacchia). Anyway Crede would have netted you 8 more runs, 4 more runs, 20 more RBIs, and extra SB and .21 of BA to boot; all for the same price as Kottaras. So why again do you have Saltalamacchia in the UT spot at $10.
In an auction, player cost isn't correlated perfectly to order of acquisition. Kotteras came up for $1, I went to $2 thinking he'd be worth it as Wakefield's personal catcher with a shot at more given Bard's release and Varitek's...Varitekness. The bidding stopped there.
Later, Saltalamacchia came up and I was in on him because the price was right. I think getting him for $10 is crazy value. He's going to rake. That he's listed at UT is a function of when these guys were nominated.
With that said, I think all three players are rosterable in this format, and I do have some Mauer insurance built in there. If he's healthy, Kotteras should have trade value, and even if he doesn't, getting .250/8/25/15/0 from that roster spot isn't bad.
I cannot emphasize enough just how deep a 12-team AL-only league is. We start 168 position players. The entire AL may roster between 180 and 190 position players at any given time.
joe-
i like the kotteras pick much more than the salty pick. my guess is that the rangers will go (eventually) with a teagarden/ramirez duo at catcher, with the loser playing DH quite a bit. salty just seems to inconsistent at this point to merit being a regular.
agree with you on adam jones, though. i like the under-30 strategy as well. go with the projection and trade away/waiver those that don't hit it.
One other thing I saw was the potential 2nd half oomph that most of the reserve players provide. I like packing the main roster with fairly solid "now" producers and having reserve picks that have full-time potential. I'm intrigued by Larish 2nd half full-time potential if Detroit lays an egg.
I had virtually no injuries in 2005, which is the biggest reason for the good finish that season.
Thanks for looking all that up, by the way. I spend so much time positioning myself as a fantasy expert that it's important my track record be established.
I just found it unusual that you said the team ended up "as planned" This, to me at least, meant that you thought it was a competitive team. At first glance I thought it was an awful team and when I ran some projections my opinion was confirmed.
I'm not saying that you will 100% guaranteed finish in the back of the pack, but for the sake of clarity I think you should have mentioned that "team BP" was not really a contender.
I love his chance to have excellent context numbers (R and RBI) batting in the #2 spot for that offense. Throw in development in skill areas, and I can see .280/20/100/75/20, maybe better. Love the guy.
Looks like the LIMA plan- $68 on pitching (no more than $30 on saves), 1 good SP and a good RP book ending "high skills pitchers at low costs". Next thing you know and you guys will be talking about BaBip, strand rates, and HR/F% as leading indicators of performance. Just teasing.
Your roster also reminds me of why I prefer a shallow-mixed league- messing with guys like Larish and Gallagher is too much for a casual excuse to go to vegas and run some light hearted competition among friends Plus, you'll never see those guys on BBTN.
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Guideline: stay away from over-30 players, who may be more likely to be injured?
Yup. All 27 players are under 30. Not so much about injuries as trying to catch the good parts of careers. It's a portfolio move.