Teams had until Monday to decide whether to offer their free agents arbitration. As I’ve written before, I consider this to be something of a bright-line test of competence for an organization, as the risks and rewards are clear, and in almost all cases favor making the offer. Article XX, Section B(3) of the current CBA (thanks, Maury) states:
The former Club of a free agent, no later than by the December 1 following the free agency election period, may offer to proceed with the Player to salary arbitration under Article VI of this Agreement, for the next following season. The Club’s offer shall be communicated to the LRD, which shall notify the Association in writing. Said offer shall be effective upon receipt by the Association and the Club will not be permitted to retract the offer. If the former Club of the free agent does not so offer, it shall lose all rights to compensation under Section B(4) of this Article XX with respect to that free agent.
On or before December 7, the Player may accept the Club’s offer to arbitrate. The Player’s acceptance shall be communicated to the Association, which shall notify the LRD. The Player’s failure to accept the Club’s offer on or before December 7 shall be deemed to constitute rejection of the offer.
If the Player accepts the offer to arbitrate, he shall be a signed player for the next season and the parties will conduct a salary arbitration proceeding under Article VI; provided, however, that the rules concerning maximum salary reduction set forth in Article VI shall be inapplicable and the parties shall be required to exchange figures on the last day established for the exchange of salary arbitration figures under Article VI.
The choice for the club is pretty simple. If the player is valuable enough to warrant a one-year contract, offer him arbitration. You will get draft-pick compensation if he signs elsewhere, and if he does not, you will have a good player signed to a one-year deal. Remember that the risk in signing free agents is almost always performance after the first season; we generally have a good handle on what any player might do the next year, so evaluating whether you want any player for one year is simply a matter of estimating performance and salary. The Venn diagram that shows “players who are good enough to return a draft pick” in one circle and “players who wouldn’t be worth signing to a one-year deal at an arbitrated salary” intersects in a very, very tiny space.
The Yankees made a mistake by not offering arbitration to either player, the biggest mistakes any team made in this round of decisions. For a team with the Yankees’ revenues, especially as they move into an ATM with foul poles, to decline the services of above-average players or draft picks in the event of their departure is a stunning waste of resources. Bobby Abreu projects as a five- or six-win player, Pettitte a bit below that. Even if you account for the fact that the Yankees may not have much room to grow marginal revenues for the next two years or so, those wins are valuable because they could be the difference between making the postseason and missing it.
Certainly there’s no baseball reason to not want either player. In Abreu’s absence, the Yankees nominally have an outfield of Xavier Nady, Johnny Damon, Melky Cabrera and Hideki Matsui, with Nick Swisher at first base. Abreu is better than all of those players, and if having him would create a logjam, it does so by forcing inferior talent to the bench, the waiver wire or the trade market. Pettitte was the team’s #3 starter last year, and would project as the #4 even if the Yankees were to sign multiple starters in the free-agent market.
All of that assumes, of course, that the players accept arbitration, foregoing multi-year contracts at market salaries to take a one-year contract with the Yankees. The more likely scenario is that both players would sign elsewhere (or in Pettitte’s case, retire), allowing the Yankees to collect two draft picks for each, either a #1 and a sandwich pick or a #2 and a sandwich pick. Even with the Yankees’…mixed…record in the draft of late, forfeiting the right to those picks is an enormous waste.
Two days ago, the Yankees had assets in Abreu and Pettitte that could have been considered short-term investments with minimal risk and fairly certain benefit (were they to rejoin the club), or long-term investments with more risk and uncertain benefit, but higher upside (were they to become draft picks). Now, they have nothing. How a team with the cash reserves of the Yankees can make a choice like that is inexplicable, and recalls the decision to forego the services of Carlos Beltran three years ago, a decision also motivated by short-term cash concerns.
The inability to balance risk and reward wasn’t restricted to the Bronx. By my count, there were 50 Type A or Type B free agents, one of whom, Jeremy Affeldt, had already signed and will be treated as if he were offered arbitration. That left 49 who could have been offered arbitration, and just 24 were. Of those 24, just five strike me as possibly questionable, and at that, I’m not sure you can criticize any team for rolling the dice on getting the draft pick. Casey Blake, Paul Byrd, Darren Oliver, Dennys Reyes and Brian Shouse are all marginal talents that could accept the offer, but only Blake and maybe Byrd would make enough in arbitration to outweigh their 2009 contributions or make eating their contract painful.
On the other hand, the list of players who were not offered arbitration includes a whole bunch of guys in the same situation as Abreu and Pettitte. The Phillies punted Pat Burrell and Jamie Moyer, both Type A free agents, in a situation identical to that of the Yankees. They have the money and the absence of the players is not easily rectified. Having both on one-year deals would have been a solid solution, and giving up the shot at draft picks is a waste. The Diamondbacks may not be terribly attached to Adam Dunn, but as much as they need his OBP, they should have dangled arbitration. See also Johnson, Randy, given their questions behind Brandon Webb and Dan Haren in the rotation. The Cubs allowed Kerry Wood-arguably the perfect pitcher to have one year at a time, given his health history-to walk.
You can’t even argue any longer that these decisions freeze a team. A player offered arbitration has until just December 7 to accept or decline, allowing a team to go to the winter meetings without uncertainty. Moreover, the player can be traded at midseason (beginning June 16), and sooner should you get his permission. Theres is simply no reason, even given the externalities present, for teams to be as risk-averse as they were in this process. The risk isn’t great enough, and the reward is considerable.
So credit the Dodgers for offering arbitration to Derek Lowe and Manny Ramirez, and the Brewers their decision to offer it to Ben Sheets and CC Sabathia, and the Angels to Francisco Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira. Even if those players accept, and even if that creates a higher payroll in the short term, no MLB team has to be so concerned with cashflow that it can’t accept having good players on one-year deals. The more likely scenario is that these teams will reap the benefits of their decision down the road, when the players they take with the draft picks they get as compensation begin contributing, or becoming valuable properties in trade.
There are about a half-dozen easily reparable problems with the Futures Game, not least of which is that it’s scheduled against a full slate of games on a Sunday afternoon. What should be a showcase of the next generation of All-Stars-”This year, they play on Sunday. Soon, they’ll play on Tuesday!”-ends up as something of an afterthought, as baseball fans around the country are much more likely to be watching their hometown favorites do battle on the last day before the break.
Those fans who do tune in, or who are lucky enough to be in the house for the kickoff of All-Star Week, are treated to some entertaining individual performances from some of the top prospects in the game. Like the Arizona Fall League, the Futures Game can fall a bit short of the hype due to the apprarance of some second- and third-line players, a problem exacerbated this year by USA Baseball’s desire to use the game as a tryout for the Olympic team. There’s also the fact that it’s clearly an exhibition; at any given moment, it was 50/50 whether anyone on the field or in the stands would know the score.
Then Dexter Fowler goes streaking across Yankee Stadium’s center field, perhaps the most sacred patch of grass in the baseball universe, to take away a triple, and you forget everything but the baseball. Henry Rodriguez comes in from the bullpen, dealing 100-mph heat and striking out the side, and it doesn’t matter much that his victims aren’t top-10 prospects. Casey Weathers faces off against Angel Villalona with two men on, and just for a second you see September 2012 in the NL West, a season on the line.
That’s what makes the Futures Game great. It is, to borrow a phrase from Kevin Goldstein, something to dream on, a glimpse of great baseball to be played years down the road, by players whose stardom is still gestating. This year’s Futures Game was, by and large, a dud, a desultory 3-0 win by the World team that included two extra-base hits, a couple of sharp defensive plays and a whole lot of weak contact. Those moments, though, were the takeaway. Fowler, who like every outfielder in this game played very shallow, got a good jump and took a direct route to the rocket hit over his head by Ivan DeJesus. The play showed not just good physical skills, but a clear ability to play center field that went beyond the player’s speed.
Che-Hsuan Lin’s two-run homer in the seventh, a line drive down the left-field line, was the nominal highlight of the game. Impressive as it was, the game’s best memory was made by Rodriguez, who came into the game throwing 99 and got to 100 during his inning. After walking Bryan Anderson on four pitches, Rodriguez struck out Chris Valaika, Greg Golson and Chris Getz on 13 pitches, relying almost entirely on his fastball. Rodriguez has been a disaster at Double-A (8.82 ERA, 36/36 K/BB), and there’s no way that he ends up as a starter in the majors, but no pitcher today-not Casey Weathers, not Carlos Carrasco-showed the kind of dominance Rodriguez did. He is not far from being a shutdown short reliever in Oakland.
Other players worth writing about, for one reason or another: Matt LaPorta. Everyone’s talking to LaPorta this weekend, following the big trade that sent him to the Indians earlier this week. He didn’t have a great day, picking up a soft single in the first, drawing a walk and striking out. It doesn’t mean anything, especially when you’re facing four different pitchers and not playing a competitive game. It just means he didn’t display the skills he clearly has on this day.
Remember two things as you read on: it’s one day, and I am not a scout.
Fernando Martinez. He put on a show in BP and pulled a single through the 34 hole in the game. Health as much as talent and performance is going to determine his arrival time in Queens, but when you consider the Mets‘ holes in the outfield, “2009″ seems like as good a guess as any. I think he’s become something of an underrated prospect.
Angel Villalona: One of the two players, along with Jesus Montero, I was most looking forward to seeing, Villalona grounded out and was overmatched by Weathers in a pretty big spot in the eighth. He’s as big as advertised, and he honestly looks soft-his weight is around his middle. I have no idea how his physical deveolpment will affect his baseball skills, but it already seems like the challenge for him is going to be to stay in some kind of playing shape as he gets older. He looks kind of Molina-ish, and that’s not good for an 18-year-old. The strikeout didn’t bother me as much as his body did.
Nate Schierholtz. One of the USA Baseball guys, Schierholtz has to hold some kind of mark for most MLB experience for guys in the Futures Game. He was a regular during two stretches for the Giants last year, and barely has his rookie eligibility. He also can’t really hit, with a Lance Niekro skill set that produces some decent batting averages and little else. It was really weird seeing him here, and he wasn’t even the oldest guy on the team.
Jamie D’Antona. He was. At 26, D’Antona needs a Present Game to play in, but he’s been blocked by better players in the Diamondbacks‘ system. Because he can almost play catcher and third base, he’d have a lot of value on a major-league bench. A smart team could make him Brandon Inge, but with more bat than glove.
Greg Golson. You could actually see his trade value collapsing during the game. Golson has had the best season of his professional life, fooling some people into seeing him as a prospect. He’s not. He swings at everything, he’s an awkward outfielder and he doesn’t do anything else well enough to make up for those traits. The Phillies have about nine minutes to turn him into something of value, because by the end of the season, he’ll have been exposed again.
Will Inman. Today, Inman provided a great lesson in the value of observation versus stats. He’s had solid performance lines in his four professional season, and the stats make him look like a midrotation prospect. In person, he’s…awkward. I’m not sure how you get to the third-highest level of your profession and still do things the way Inman does, but he has. He has the longest arm action I can remember seeing, the kind of motion you cringe while watching. It also should leave him very exposed to lefthanded hitters. I could see him as a Jeff Nelson reliever, which limits his innings and lets him chew up righties. Anything else…unlikely.
I can’t emphasize what an eye-opener this was. I’m not going to sit here and say that performance analysis is invalid and I’m headed over to start a Web site devoted to the advancement of scouts, but the gap between what a player does and how he does it-and what that means for his future-was really put into stark relief by watching Inman.
Taylor Teagarden. Teagarden threw out two basestealers today. OK, one of them was Pablo Sandoval, another apprentice Molina, but still. Teagarden has to hit more to elbow out Max Ramirez and Jarrod Saltalamacchia-yes, those names are in the correct order-but if he provides even adequate offense, he’ll be a good major-league catcher because he can play the position well.
Carlos Carrasco. The best starting-pitcher prospect I saw, Carrasco threw fastballs at 90-93 and changeups about 10 mph slower, eschewing any breaking balls. He’s been rumored to be trade bait for the Phillies, who need starting pitching help. I’m not sure that Carrasco is much worse than the kinds of pitchers you can get back for him.
Ryan Mattheus. He has the track record of a non-prospect, but was dealing at 96-97 today, continuing the good work he’s done since moving to the bullpen at the start of the year. He did give up the homer to Lin, who jumped on a first-pitch fastball that was in off the plate. In addition, Jesus Delgado, Jake Arrieta and Hector Rondon looked the best of the pitchers not mentioned so far.
Regular column in the morning, more stuff from Yankee Stadium all day Monday from John Perrotto and I.
Two things have become crystal clear to anyone watching the first two days of coverage of the League Division Series on TBS:
1. Frank Caliendo has a new show coming to TBS.
2. Kenny Lofton has played for many teams in his 18-year career.
Those DHL ads featuring Lofton’s equipment being overnighted to seemingly every destination in the free world have been trumped in volume only by those spots plugging Caliendo’s show.
Lofton, the Cleveland Indians‘ left fielder, isn’t nearly as funny as Caliendo. However, he is not above having some fun poked at him in the ads. After all, he has played for 11 teams in his career and is in his third stint with the Indians.
“It was pretty obvious that I’m the guy for that commercial,” the 40-year-old Lofton said with a smile. “Shipping all over the place and all the different cities, who was the only guy they could call on? Me. I’ve been ever city there is in the States, I think.”
One place Lofton seems to wind up every year, though, is the postseason. This is his 11th and he tied Rickey Henderson’s career record for post-season steals on Thursday with his 33rd. That was part of a big night for Lofton as he went 3-for-4 with four RBI in helping the Indians to a 12-3 rout of the New York Yankees in Game 1 of the American League Division Series at Jacobs Field.
“Kenny is a big-game player and he’s given a boost to the bottom of our lineup,” said Indians manager Eric Wedge, whose team acquired Lofton from Texas in a late-July trade for catching prospect Max Ramirez. “Certain players have that within them and Kenny most definitely does. He’s done it his entire career.”
Yesterday’s post on Bryan Anderson triggered a small flood of requests for projections for other “neglected” catching prospects. I’m not going to respond to most of these; there are usually good reasons if a player is not in the system. But one guy I thought was worth spinning PECOTA’s wheels on was Max Ramirez, the catching prospect acquired by the Indians in the Bob Wickman deal.
Ramirez doesn’t have a player card up yet, but if he did you’d see some fairly impressive raw totals; he’s a lifetime .303/.401/.481 hitter in the minor leagues. The problem is with the way that Ramirez has been putting up those numbers. A large part of his value comes from his high walk rate, but he hasn’t been young for his levels and he strikes out a lot, which suggests that a lot of those walks result from exploiting weak A-Ball pitching, rather than a core competency for pitch recognition.
The other issue is that Ramirez may not really be a catcher. He spent as much time at DH last year as he did behind the plate, and his defense was not very good when he played, yielding -8 fielding runs in just 53 games played. Essentially, this is the George Kottaras skill set, and indeed Kottaras rates as Ramirez’ #2 comparable (#1 is Curtis Thigpen, but Thigpen’s defense is a lot better). Ramirez’ Upside score of 38.7 also puts him right in Kottaras’ neighborhood. PECOTA does think that Ramirez can cut down on his strikeout rate and produce some reasonable batting averages — his .265/.345/.400 age-26 batting line doesn’t look too bad — but that doesn’t solve the problem of his being a ‘tweener. Think Ryan Garko with less power; I’ll pass.
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Transaction Analysis: Swaps and Moves