In Kevin’s article he built an “All-Star” of minor leaguers over 30, and his off-the-cuff guess was 52 wins.
Let’s get serious about that number, speculative as the entire enterprise is.
For hitters, I’m going to use their regular translation for all of 2008 - combining across whatever multiple teams, including the majors, they may have had. For their defense I’ll use their averages over the last three years, pro-rated to 162 games. I made guesses as to how their time might be spent at each position, pretty much the way I’d do with a fantasy team in pre-season.
The team total for EqR comes to 602 over 4374 outs, a .238 EqA. That’s only slightly worse than Washington and Kansas City, the two lightest-hitting teams in the majors. Hold that number.
The pitchers - I’m using their actual innings to date, and the average of the four ERAs I spit out with a translation: an ERA based on their actual runs allowed, one that adjusts that figure for the quality of the team’s defense, one based completely on peripherals, and one that starts from the first ERA and adjusts for their “unluckiness” in hits and runs allowed. I’m going to pro-rate their innings through to the end of the season.
Name IP ERA R
Walrond 159 4.38 77
Gulin 162 4.88 88
Ohka 163 5.75 104
Mazone 196 4.95 108
Pettyjohn 191 6.20 132
Childers 71 2.58 20
King 52 4.23 24
Lehr 75 3.61 30
Randolph 68 3.49 27
Sanches 52 4.50 26
Strickland 75 4.84 40
Total 1264 4.81 676
One big problem is that we need 1458 innings to complete a season (162*9), so I.m going to assume that we could find 194 innings of 6.00 pitching to take us the rest of the way there; that pushes our run total up 805.
The defense came in at -31, so that pushes the runs allowed up to 836.
A team that scores 602 adjusted runs and allows 836 is going to have a record around .341, which is 55 wins.
Kevin, I think you’re a touch low. And I’m pretty sure he’ll tell me I haven’t taken enough off for defense.
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