Thoughts on the NCAA Field of 64, announced yesterday by the committee and available on PDF in bracket form:
– For me, the single largest injustice done by the committee was relegating TCU to a three-seed, while a team with a worse resume (Michigan) hosted and a team the Horned Frogs swept (Dallas Baptist) was a two-seed. TCU played an astounding 28 games against teams in the top 64 in the RPI, and went 14-14. Michigan, on the other hand, played five such games and went 1-4. TCU’s conference dominance, losing just six games, is very similar to Michigan’s, who lost just five. So, is the committee telling us that the Big Ten is head and shoulders above the Mountain West Conference, when a look at average RPI would tell us just the opposite? Not just that, but TCU is headed to a regional against the one team that swept them this season, Wichita State, while Michigan heads a block up from their practice facility.
– How difficult it must have been for the committee to leave Oregon State off the field of 64, given the Beavers status as two-time defending champions. The Beavers were in a similar bubble position last year, and once brought into the field of 64, they rode their three-seed into a national championship. No such luck this season given the parity in the SEC and Big 12, for which the committee thought needed to be addressed. Given its young roster we know the Beavers will be back, but it’s always strange to look at a field and not be given the opportunity of a repeat. Good season, OSU.
– I wonder how much some of these larger conference tournaments really meant to the committee. The most blatant example would be the inclusion of Arkansas, who while a rain-out from the seven seed in the SEC tourney, failed to make the field. While, by contrast, Houston won the Conference USA tournament and still found themselves as a three-seed, effectively ranked fourth in the conference. It’s also fairly easy to call Oklahoma the last team in the tournament at this point, and I’m not sure I would put them in above Kansas State, who made a run to the Big 12 title. Yes, I would hesitate in putting too much stock into a single weekend after a three-month season, but if a conference tourney win is enough for an automatic bid, it should be enough to sway the minds of the committee.
– I’m most excited to see some of the regional match-ups the conference brought for us. Georgia and Georgia Tech should certainly do battle on Saturday, as I don’t have much faith in Lipscomb or Louisville, respectively, beating either on Friday night. That’s a great way to strengthen a rivalry, as is the potential Gators-Seminoles battle should Florida get past Shooter Hunt. I just love that the committee is making an ardent attempt to create or strengthen rivalries (OK State - Wichita State, Coastal Carolina - East Carolina, Rice - Texas) — it’s a great way to bring some greater interest into the sport.
– The Hurricanes certainly didn’t get the easiest road as a national number one seed, as Missouri has risen as high as #3 in national rankings this spring and Ole Miss has top five talent. North Carolina, meanwhile, has the winner of Elon and UNC Wilmington on Saturday, giving them the easiest road to the super regionals. Arizona State got Oklahoma as their three see, and even Coastal Carolina’s draw looks easier than Miami’s. The one saving grace, I suppose, is that if they should get out of the weekend, they do have the Ann Arbor Regional awaiting them for the Supers. However, the top team deserves better, I would think.
– Most exciting regional: has to be Long Beach State. While Tanner Scheppers against Andrew Liebel on Friday night would re-invent this regional, even without Scheppers, it’s crazy-deep. Friday we should see a battle between Tyson Ross and Brian Matusz, and you could have made arguments that Cal should have been a two-seed and San Diego a one-seed. These are three really close teams 1-3, and while the home team has to be the favorite, the pitching match-ups always favor San Diego. Tossing a dart blind might be your best chance at picking this regional.
I’ll have my 16 regional picks up by Thursday night or Friday morning.
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