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December 11, 2006, 03:47 PM ET
Market Insanity Update

by Nate Silver

All winter long, I’ve been somewhat obsessed with tracking the inflation in the free agent market. The magic number, after the most recent round of signings, is 47%. That is, teams are willing to pay 47% more for the same talent than they were one winter ago. This number seems to have stabilized after being as high as 70% — and as “low” as 30% — during various other parts of the free agent cycle.

I’ve had to make a few modifications to the MORP formula, by the way, which I’ll describe in a full-length column sometime soon. But as a teaser, here are the three best and worst deals of the winter so far, according to MORP 2.0.

Best Deals

1. Adam Kennedy, Cardinals: $17.9 million savings.
2. Dave Roberts, Giants: $9.4 million savings.
3. Craig Counsell, Brewers: $7.3 million savings.

Worst Deals

1. Carlos Lee, Astros: $27.2 million overspend.
2. Gil Meche, Royals: $19.4 million overspend.
3. Adam Eaton, Phillies: $12.8 million overspend.

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12-04-06 — The Ledger Domain: Why the Free Spending?
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