Year Club LG BA OBP SLG
2007 FLO NL .320 .401 .565
This is a preliminary version of his PECOTA projection for 2008.
Year Club LG BA OBP SLG
2008 FLO NL .316 .399 .561
Simply put, PECOTA was projecting him to do almost exactly as well in 2008 as he did in 2007.
Now, let’s move his home ballpark from Dolphin Stadium to Comerica Park, but keep him in the National League.
Year Club LG BA OBP SLG
2008 DET NL .319 .399 .569
Dolphin Stadium and Comerica Park play quite similarly for right-handed hitters; Cabrera does pick up eight points of slugging average, but that isn’t much.
Finally, let’s move him into the American League.
Year Club LG BA OBP SLG
2008 DET AL .304 .381 .523
Now, that difference is a little more noticeable — a 64-point drop in OPS. It’s much harder for a player to stand heads and shoulders above the pack in the American League. Since 2001, there are 36 players who have posted an OPS of 1.000 or higher in the National League, as compared to just 23 in the AL.
But here’s the key question … does this make Cabrera any less valuable to the Tigers? Absolutely not. This simply represents the prevailing exchange rate between the two leagues. Cabrera will be just as valuable to the Tigers, even if he might not be quite as valuable to his fantasy owners. And if more players like Cabrera migrate to the American League, the gap between the two circuits is only going to increase.
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Wonky disclaimer: this should not be read to mean that there is a 64-point gap in talent between the AL and the NL. The talent gap is big, but more along the lines of 25-30 points of OPS. The balance of the difference has to do with the fact that the NL is actually a better hitter’s league right now, especially for a power hitter, perhaps because it has a lot of small ballparks.
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