PECOTA has Rule 5 draft #1 pick Ryan Goleski projected at a .235/.298/.376 line next year. That’s in Cleveland, technically, but it won’t change very much if he’s in Oakland. It also thinks he’s pretty much done growing, the steepest parts of the growth curve having been long since passed by the time a typical player hits age 25.
Looking over the top 20 players on his comparables list, there’s one name that stands out: Marcus Thames, who had a fine half-season with the Tigers last year. After that, there’s a Nelson Cruz here, a Jason Lane there, and a bunch of guys that not even Kevin Goldstein has heard of.
So the A’s have a scratch-off ticket that has a 1-in-20 chance of turning into Marcus Thames. Is that worth the $50,000 posting fee? Certainly. But it’s not worth expending any significant amount of playing time for a team that looks like it’s going to have to scratch and claw for runs.
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