John Perrotto did a fine job in recapping what may have been Curt Schilling’s final start as a Red Sock, a win that raised his World Series record to 4-1 with a 2.06 ERA. As the prospect of the soon-to-be 41-year-old’s free agency looms, one question has found its way into my inbox yet again: is Schilling a Hall of Famer?
That may be the most common JAWS question I’ve received over the past couple years, one I’ve addressed in multiplechats as well as indirectly for an ESPN Page 2 piece by BP alum Jonah Keri. Here’s the last conversation I had on the topic back in June:
Kurt Billings (Newton): True or False: Had Curt Schilling gotten that final out [to complete a no-hitter] he’d seal the deal on his HOF credentials.
Jay Jaffe: False. JAWS-wise, Schilling’s at 103.3 WARP career/63.4 WARP peak /83.4 JAWS, where the average pitcher is at 99.0/62.7/80.9. In a more conventional sense, he’s got 213 wins with a winning percentage above .600, and some serious postseason juice as well — perhaps the most of any player this era.
I’m the last person who’d call myself a Schilling fan, but I think his ticket has been punched.
JAWS is soon to be recalibrated with the end of another season (Clay Davenport’s various tweaks necessitate this), but we know that Schilling finished the year at 4.7 WARP, taking him to 85.7 points, about five above the Hall average for starters. He’s up to 216 wins now, though his winning percentage has slipped a few hairs to .597. Far more importantly, adding three good October starts has pushed his postseason record to 11-2 — fifth in wins — with a 2.23 ERA, and likely a third World Series ring (can a Yankee fan get his jinx on?).
In other words, particularly given his October stature, it will be very tough to argue that Schilling shouldn’t get the vote whenever he finally reaches the ballot.