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October 18, 2007, 05:06 PM ET
Triangulation

by Nate Silver

This was not a serious offer to Joe Torre. Nobody with any modicum of self-pride would be willing to accept a 33% pay cut at a late stage of his career, which is what this ultimately amounts to, from a base of $7.5 million in 2007 to $5.0 million in 2008. And nobody with any tangible sense of the randomness inherent to postseason baseball would be willing to give much benefit of the doubt to incentive clauses that are difficult to achieve under the best of circumstances, and which have little to do with one’s own performance.

No. This offer was a public relations stunt, designed to make it look as though the Yankees had not put Joe Torre out to pasture. It was not an offer that had any chance of being accepted, nor was it an offer that that had any chance of facilitating future discussions. It was an insulting offer, quite frankly, and a conversation-ender.

That is not to a render a judgment about what Joe Torre is ultimately worth to the Yankees. Very probably, the marginal revenue that Torre produces is not worth $7.5 million more than what Don Mattingly would give you, nor is it worth $5.0 million more. But it’s not like Torre went from being worth $7.5 million yesterday to $5.0 million today, just because the Yankees lost three out of four games to another very talented baseball club.

If it were my business, I would not have made this offer. I would have offered Joe Torre more, or I wouldn’t have made him an offer at all. I can’t entirely blame the Yankees for trying to triangulate the situation. But I hope that people see this offer for what it was.

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