At 4:00 eastern time Saturday the Mets‘ finished off a 13-0 thrashing of the Marlins.
INDAY UPDATE: The Mets’ thrashing of the Marlins raises their playoff chances from 21.0% to 31.1%: division champ chance up from 17.6 to 25.6, wild card up from 3.5 to 5.5. It cuts the Phillies‘ chances from 82.4/1.5/84.0 to 74.4/2.4/76.9. The chance of an NL East tie, which would require a playoff game, is up to 34.0%.
The Mets’ victory drops the Padres‘ wild card chances from 82.5 to 79.9 and the Rockies‘ chances from
4.4 to 4.0. The chance of a wild card playoff game is up from 16.3 to 19.8%; the chance of a three-way tie is
up from 4.8 to 7.7 and a four-way tie is up from 1.8 to 3.0%.
UPDATE #2: Philly fans go from yesterday’s high to a sad low, as a badly-fielded seventh inning costs them two runs in a 4-2 loss to the Nationals. The East division title odds are now basically 50-50, with a very slight edge to the Phils: 50.4 for them, 49.6 for the Mets. The wild card chance is 3.4% for each of them. Total playoff chance 53.8 Philly, 52.9 New York. The chance of a playoff game is 53.2%.
In the wild card, the Padres go back up to 81.0% while the Rockies fall back to 4.1. The chance of a wild card playoff drops a little, down to 17.3, with the three-way tie down to 7.1 but the four-way tie up to 4.0 - not sure I understand that, but OK.
UPDATE #3: It didn’t take long after that for the Padres to finish off a loss to the Brewers, 4-3 in 11 inning. That gives Arizona the western division title (there’s still a 17% chance of an Arizona-San Diego tie, but that would mean Arizona wins the division and SD wins the WC) and drives the wild card tie chances way up. The Padres are still a game ahead of everyone else, and so hold 79.7% chance of making the playoffs even with the loss. The Rockies (7.7), Mets (6.3), and Phillies (6.3), more or less split the 20% of the time the Padres don’t make it.
The chances of tie games almost double with this decision: a playoff for the WC was needed in 32.5% of the simulations, with an 11.7% chance of a two-way tie, a 13.2% chance of a three-way tie, and a 7.6% chance for a four-way tie. The four-way tie situation is really another three-way tie, since it would also involve the Mets and Phillies being tied for first in the NL East, and the playoff for that would remove the winner from the wild card round.
UPDATE #4: Looks like the Diamondbacks took it easy after clinching earlier in the day, as Colorado rolled to a 11-1 win. That win keeps the possibility of a four-team tie, and it happens in 12.5% of the simulations - a 1 in 8 shot. There is now a 40% chance that a wild card playoff game will be needed, and a 20% chance that 3 or 4 teams will be involved. The Padres’ odds dropped to 75% on the result, with Colorado moving up to 12.8% and the Mets and Phillies even at 5.9%.
0 comments have been left for this post.
