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September 21, 2007, 07:48 PM ET
Where Will Barry Bonds End up in 2008?

by Nate Silver

Based on a variety of factors related to need, money, culture, and geography, this is how I’d set the odds.

Padres          4-1
A’s             5-1
[Retirement]    6-1
Angels         10-1
Tigers         12-1
Giants         12-1
Orioles        25-1
Diamondbacks   50-1
Mariners       50-1
Rangers        50-1
White Sox      50-1
Indians        50-1
Yankees        50-1
Red Sox        75-1
Pirates       100-1
Braves        100-1
Cardinals     100-1
Mets          150-1
Devil Rays    150-1
Blue Jays     200-1
Phillies      200-1
Astros        200-1
Cubs          200-1
Brewers       200-1
Nationals     300-1
Dodgers       300-1
Twins         500-1
Reds          500-1
Rockies      1000-1
Royals       2000-1
Marlins      5000-1

My main point is that the Padres are a way underrated fit. They have no problem picking up players with some baggage, they’re on the West Coast in a low-key media environment, they have a smart GM who understands Bonds’ value, they’ll need a left fielder if Milton Bradley departs to free agency, and they’re a good team that will give Bonds the opportunity to go out a winner.

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