18 hours after posting my mock draft, my list of picks is already looking like it’s pretty broken, but hey, that’s the nature of prognostication, especially in a draft that remains highly unstable until the final minute, and there’s still tons of great, and accurate information in there and I’m excited about seeing how it all pans out.
No draft in any other major sports is based less on talent than baseball’s, and that’s because of the signing bonus demands, in particular with Scott Boras, though he’s surely not alone. There was a very brief rumor last night that the D-Rays were off of David Price (not a Boras client) at No. 1 because of his money demands (around $8 million or so), but they were short-lived and inaccurate. Well, the money is probably accurate, but Tampa is still definitely looking like they’ll take the player who is clearly best prospect in the draft.
I’ve gotten a lot of email in reference to my mock draft and chat, and much of it relates to Scott Boras and his elite clients and how they are basically creating a mine field in the first round. Most of this email is highly negative, and assumes I have equally negative when it comes to Boras. Let me make something clear, I have no problem with Boras, or what Boras does. His job is to do what he believes is in the best interests of his clients – not other teams, and not baseball itself, simply his clients. And based on the money they get, you can’t argue with the results.
One of Boras’ favorite tactics is to establish a big contract for a player as some point, and then use that deal as a comp for future negotiations. Let’s look at three of Boras’ top clients, and based on conversations over the last 72 hours that have taken place with team sources, the kind of comps he’s been throwing out there.
Rick Porcello, rhp, Seton Hall Prep (NJ): Boras’ comp here is Josh Beckett, who signed a four-year big league deal out of high school for a total package of right around $7 million. Beckett was the top pitching prospect in the 1999 draft, going number two overall after the Devil Rays selected Josh Hamilton (they also strongly considered Beckett). Is he as good as Beckett? No, but he’s closer than you might think. I’ve had more than one scouting director tell me he’s the best high school righty they’ve seen since Beckett, and at least one told me he’d have to seriously consider him if he had the top pick. That’s high praise indeed for a player who could fall mightily in a few hours, as people are afraid of the possibly eight-figure price tag.
Matt Wieters, c, Georgia Tech: Six years ago, Mark Teixeira was the best hitter in the draft, but he slid to the Rangers at No.5 due to bonus demands. Boras ended up negotiating a $4.5 million bonus as part of a big league deal worth just under $10 million. Boras is using Teixeira’s deal as a starting point in pre-draft discussions on Wieters, and this time, he’s a bit off. Teixeira had an outstanding career at Georgia Tech, while Wieters, playing at the same school has been certainly good, but below expectations. He’s not in Teixiera’s class offensively, but the fact that he plays a premium position changes the equation a bit. He’ll certainly get a big league deal, but it will probably be less than what Teixeira did.
Mike Moustakas, ss, Chatsworth HS (California): 13 years ago Alex Rodriguez was the number one pick in the draft when the Mariners made a late decision to go with the Miami-area shortstop over Wichita State’s Darren Dreifort. Negotiations were long, and at times contentious, before Rodriguez signed a deal that included a $1 million bonus and a big league deal worth a total of $1.3 million. That might not sound like much, but it was the second-highest bonus in draft history at the time of the signing. One source has Boras comparing Moustakas to A-Rod, and this time, it’s not even close. Coming out of high school, Rodriguez was six-foot-three, while Moustakas is almost smallish at six-foot even. Moustakas is clearly one of the top high school hitters in the draft, but Rodriguez is a bit of a scouting legend, with some of the most impressive scores for a high school infielder in recent history. This is the only time when Boras’ comp sounds a bit crazy, but as I said earlier, you can argue with the super-agent’s methods, but not the results.
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