Presented without further commentary below, I’ve presented an update on how the Top 20 prospects according to PECOTA, Kevin Goldstein, and Baseball America have fared thus far this season. Hitters are listed along with their slash stats; the numbers you see for pitchers are (IP/BB/K/ERA). I’ve applied a letter grade to each player based on his performance on the season to date; this is admittedly a bit crude, but I’ve attempted to make some adjustments for things like age, level, and park effects. I’ve also figured a weighted GPA for each list, assigning a weight of 100 to the #1 pick, on down to 25 for the #20 pick, with the weights decreasing linearly in between. I’ve avoided grades below D, since I don’t think it’s fair to go lower than that at this point in the season unless something truly catastrophic has happened.
It’s been an extremely close battle so far; each list has something to brag about (Dustin Pedoria, Justin Upton, Ryan Braun) and other things to be ashamed of. But the Goldstein list ranks a hair ahead of PECOTA so far, which in turn rates a hair ahead of Baseball America.
Also note that I’ve exclude Daisuke Matsuzaka from consideration on the BA list, since Kevin and I did not think he qualified as a prospect. Everyone else’s ranking is adjusted upward accordingly.
PECOTA
1 Alex Gordon MLB .185/.301/.298 D
2 Evan Longoria AA .304/.417/.569 A
4 Chris B. Young MLB .277/.314/.465 B-
6 Dustin Pedroia MLB .308/.394/.433 A
7 Alexi Casilla AAA .252/.341/.304 D
MLB .233/.250/.256
8 Felix Pie AAA .397/.454/.586 A-
MLB .224/.240/.388
10 Chris Iannetta MLB .198/.333/.333 D
11 Kevin Kouzmanoff MLB .209/.281/.381 D
12 Brent Lillibridge AA .274/.355/.388 C+
13 Eric Patterson AAA .311/.365/.497 B+
14 Andy LaRoche AAA .235/.309/.367 D+
MLB .200/.442/.257
15 Delmon Young MLB .253/.296/.394 D+
17 Fernando Martinez AA .296/.364/.396 B+
18 Sean Rodriguez AA .243/.351/.392 C+
19 Billy Butler AAA .314/.429/.579 B
MLB .243/.256/.297
3 Tim Lincecum MLB 33.1/11/33/3.24 A
AAA 31.0/11/46/0.29
5 Philip Hughes MLB 10.2/4/11/3.38 B-
AAA 16.0/4/17/3.94
9 Clayton Kershaw A 50.0/28/68/2.34 B
16 Yovani Gallardo AAA 60.1/21/84/2.39 A-
20 Kevin Slowey AAA 64.1/5/57/1.54 A-
Weighted GPA: 2.61
Baseball America
1 Alex Gordon MLB .185/.301/.298 D
2 Delmon Young MLB .253/.296/.394 D+
5 Cameron Maybin A+ .306/.427/.486 A-
6 Evan Longoria AA .304/.417/.569 A
7 Brandon Wood AAA .222/.324/.377 C-
8 Justin Upton A+ .341/.433/.540 A
AA .351/.403/.825
11 Chris B. Young MLB .277/.314/.465 B-
12 Andrew McCutchen AA .214/.284/.369 D
13 Jay Bruce A+ .322/.374/.590 A
14 Troy Tulowitzki MLB .278/.355/.385 C
16 Reid Brignac AA .258/.304/.371 C-
17 Carlos Gonzalez AA .242/.263/.355 D
18 Andy LaRoche AAA .235/.309/.367 D+
MLB .200/.442/.257
3 Philip Hughes MLB 10.2/4/11/3.38 B-
AAA 16.0/4/17/3.94
4 Homer Bailey AAA 52.1/21/43/1.89 C+
9 Andrew Miller A+ 41.1/15/28/3.48 B-
AA 23.0/4/17/0.78
10 Tim Lincecum MLB 33.1/11/33/3.24 A
AAA 31.0/11/46/0.29
15 Yovani Gallardo AAA 60.1/21/84/2.39 A-
19 Mike Pelfrey MLB 30.3/17/13/6.53 D+
AAA 15.1/4/8/3.52
20 Matt Garza AAA 56.0/22/53/3.21 B
Weighted GPA: 2.50
Goldstein
1 Alex Gordon MLB .185/.301/.298 D
3 Delmon Young MLB .253/.296/.394 D+
5 Brandon Wood AAA .222/.324/.377 C-
7 Cameron Maybin A+ .306/.427/.486 A-
8 Chris B. Young MLB .277/.314/.465 B-
9 Jay Bruce A+ .322/.374/.590 A
10 Evan Longoria AA .304/.417/.569 A
11 Reid Brignac AA .258/.304/.371 C-
12 Ryan Braun AAA .342/.418/.701 A
15 Andrew McCutchen AA .214/.284/.369 D
18 Fernando Martinez AA .296/.364/.396 B+
20 Andy LaRoche AAA .235/.309/.367 D+
MLB .200/.442/.257
2 Philip Hughes MLB 10.2/4/11/3.38 B-
AAA 16.0/4/17/3.94
4 Homer Bailey AAA 52.1/21/43/1.89 C+
6 Tim Lincecum MLB 33.1/11/33/3.24 A
AAA 31.0/11/46/0.29
13 Matt Garza AAA 56.0/22/53/3.21 B
14 Yovani Gallardo AAA 60.1/21/84/2.39 A-
16 Clayton Kershaw A 50.0/28/68/2.34 B
17 Andrew Miller A+ 41.1/15/28/3.48 B-
AA 23.0/4/17/0.78
19 Adam Miller AAA 44.0/14/39/2.45 B
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