Almost two weeks since I first wrote this up. Since that first article, Bonds has gone 5-31 with no homers, although he has drawn 16 walks. His batting line has dropped from .329/.526/.785 to .282/.503/.618, and with the drop in HR/AB comes lower likelihoods of reaching the goal, since his HR to PA ratio this season is part of the estimate. The 50% threshold, originally at June 16 (I think) when I first ran, has slipped back to the fifth of July, while the chance of not making it all in 2007 has grown from six to eight percent.
The original article was: http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6219Clay
Date That day Cumulative
150 May 30 5 5
151 May 31 7 12
152 Jun 1 30 42
153 Jun 2 57 99
154 Jun 3 122 221
155 Jun 4 276 497
156 Jun 5 543 1040
157 Jun 6 944 1984
158 Jun 7 1536 3520
159 Jun 8 2322 5842
160 Jun 9 3468 9310
161 Jun 10 4715 14025
162 Jun 11 6538 20563
163 Jun 12 8316 28879
164 Jun 13 10631 39510
166 Jun 15 12929 52439
167 Jun 16 15340 67779
168 Jun 17 18090 85869
169 Jun 18 20417 106286
170 Jun 19 23056 129342
171 Jun 20 25348 154690
173 Jun 22 27059 181749
174 Jun 23 29168 210917
175 Jun 24 30372 241289
176 Jun 25 31551 272840
177 Jun 26 32469 305309
178 Jun 27 32655 337964
180 Jun 29 33084 371048 ******** Single most likely day **************
181 Jun 30 32793 403841
182 Jul 1 32190 436031
184 Jul 3 31298 467329
185 Jul 4 30657 497986
186 Jul 5 29409 527395 ********* 50% cumulative chance reached ****************
187 Jul 6 28066 555461
188 Jul 7 27038 582499
189 Jul 8 25173 607672
194 Jul 13 23851 631523
195 Jul 14 22303 653826
196 Jul 15 20763 674589
197 Jul 16 19269 693858
198 Jul 17 17756 711614
199 Jul 18 16217 727831
200 Jul 19 14886 742717
201 Jul 20 13631 756348
202 Jul 21 12359 768707
203 Jul 22 11444 780151
204 Jul 23 10204 790355
205 Jul 24 9239 799594
206 Jul 25 8494 808088
207 Jul 26 7510 815598
208 Jul 27 6730 822328
209 Jul 28 6066 828394
210 Jul 29 5549 833943
212 Jul 31 5063 839006
213 Aug 1 4531 843537
214 Aug 2 4117 847654
215 Aug 3 3744 851398
216 Aug 4 3356 854754
217 Aug 5 3082 857836
218 Aug 6 2839 860675
219 Aug 7 2601 863276
220 Aug 8 2317 865593
221 Aug 9 2161 867754
222 Aug 10 2079 869833
223 Aug 11 1934 871767
224 Aug 12 1777 873544
225 Aug 13 1687 875231
226 Aug 14 1571 876802
227 Aug 15 1438 878240
228 Aug 16 1432 879672
229 Aug 17 1379 881051
230 Aug 18 1298 882349
231 Aug 19 1240 883589
232 Aug 20 1230 884819
233 Aug 21 1230 886049
234 Aug 22 1183 887232
235 Aug 23 1126 888358
236 Aug 24 1106 889464
237 Aug 25 1043 890507
238 Aug 26 1039 891546
239 Aug 27 1054 892600
240 Aug 28 1000 893600
241 Aug 29 991 894591
243 Aug 31 957 895548
244 Sep 1 937 896485
245 Sep 2 1004 897489
246 Sep 3 978 898467
247 Sep 4 953 899420
248 Sep 5 931 900351
250 Sep 7 917 901268
251 Sep 8 950 902218
252 Sep 9 954 903172
253 Sep 10 913 904085
254 Sep 11 891 904976
255 Sep 12 854 905830
257 Sep 14 857 906687
258 Sep 15 856 907543
259 Sep 16 876 908419
260 Sep 17 832 909251
261 Sep 18 836 910087
262 Sep 19 845 910932
263 Sep 20 773 911705
264 Sep 21 824 912529
265 Sep 22 796 913325
266 Sep 23 818 914143
267 Sep 24 810 914953
268 Sep 25 776 915729
269 Sep 26 732 916461
271 Sep 28 746 917207
272 Sep 29 814 918021
273 Sep 30 755 918776
Not this year 81224
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