strupp (Madison): Joe, Cain > Sheets? really? (I’m no Brewer fan, but still…) can you elaborate a little please?
Joe Sheehan: I love Ben Sheets, but you have to look at what he is: a guy who’s made 47 starts in two-plus seasons, whose ERA keeps climbing and whose peripherals have slipped this year.
I can’t imagine I’m the only one who’d take Cain over him, or even that I’m in the minority. In fact, instant poll: readers, send me your choice between the two.
I got 34 votes, and the results leaned overwhelmingly Matt Cain: 22 to 7, with five people a bit on the fence. Those five, I should note, leaned Sheets in their comments, mostly of the “Sheets for now, Cain for the future” variety.
Here are some of the reader comments:
“the lack of innings and strikeouts for Sheets is troubling”
“Sheets gets hurt too much, at this stage Cain is more likely to make 30 starts/200IP.”
“Both their peripherals are down, but Cain’s advantage over Sheets is being driven by an unsustainable 3.5% HR/OF rate (2006: 9% HR/OF) and if either recovers to their previous levels of performance Sheets is far superior (even in 2005-2006) to Cain.”
“I love Matt Cain, but who are you and what did you do with Joe Sheehan? The Joe I know would insist that you can’t throw out Sheets’ past four seasons (granted, a couple of them shortened by injury) of impeccable peripherals. Especially not solely because of the numbers generated over the past five weeks. Not unless you have some reason to believe that his five-week performance is a better indicator of future expectations than Sheets’ career to date. Not saying that you couldn’t be right, but absent more specific information I think it’s still too soon to draw this kind of conclusion about Sheets.”
(Note that almost all of the stats referenced above are from the early and middle part of the week, and may be outdated.)
The point about Cain’s unsustainable HR/flyball and BABIP rates is an important one. The righthander has allowed just three homers in 57 1/3 innings, giving up 75 flyballs (per ESPN.com) in that time. Cain’s 2007 G/F ratio of .72 is in line with his career numbers coming into this season, so it’s clear that he’s a flyball pitcher, and flyball pitchers don’t give up homers 4% or so of their fly balls. Cain’s .245 BABIP is second-lowest on the Giants. He’s been very fortunate so far, and as his K/BB isn’t great (44/29), you can make a case that I’ve overrated him.
Sheets also has an unsustainably low BABIP, .251, which is third-lowest on the Brewers, a mediocre defensive team. Sheets does still have good K/BB numbers (34/12 this year), but that 3-1 ratio is a big drop from his last few seasons, and reflects both a lowered strikeout rate and a higher walk rate. Sheets’ HR rate is also up this year, the highest of his career. He’s more of a flyball pitcher now than he was at his peak, so you’d expect a few extra longballs, and his HR/FB is a little high and should come down.
I like Stuff score as a quick’n’dirty measure of effectiveness. Cain is at 18 this year, Sheets 11, and that difference is partially explained by the HR/FB numbers.
The real separation between the two pitchers is this: Sheets has not effective over a full season since 2004. Cain was in 2006. Cain is no great bet to stay healthy—he’s 22, and will throw about 400 innings over his age-21 and age-22 seasons, a risk factor—but he’s the only one of the two pitchers who’s made 30 starts in a season of late.
I’m less convinced of “Cain > Sheets” than I was on Monday, but I still think I would choose the Giants’ hurler over his Brewers’ counterpart. Staying in the rotation is that important.
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