Last week in my Schrodinger’s Bat column I discussed the historical frequency with which runners get thrown out stretching on the base paths. While we found that looking back to 1970 runners are indeed getting thrown out stretching less frequently these days than in the past, the reasons for the decline are less clear. Although a greater number of slower runners in the game today, smaller ballparks, and a response to an expanding run environment are all tempting explanations, the historical downward trend in triples that persists despite controlling for a number of these factors tends to argue that in large part runners are simply more cautious. And a reasonable hypothesis is that that caution stems from the increasing excellence of defenders who make it more difficult for runners to take that extra base.
On an individual level I found that Hal McRae led all runners by being nabbed 45 times (36 times stretching a single and 9 times a double) which comes out to once every 41 times he hit a single or double. But in terms of rate he was second to Albert Belle who was thrown out 32 times, once every 37 singles plus doubles. But as a father-son combo the McRae’s are the clear winners as son Brian was caught 25 times, once every 44 times he had an opportunity.
I rehash all of that in the interests of correcting an oversight in calculating the number of times runners were thrown out stretching. In those calculations I failed to include the plays where a runner was thrown out attempting to stretch a triple into an inside-the-park homerun. Although those plays comprise just 2% of the total number of times a runner was thrown out stretching, not including those 227 instances leaves a less than complete picture. In the interests of completing that picture the following table lists the revised top and bottom 15 runners with 1,000 or more singles, doubles, and triples in rate of getting thrown out.
Name S+D+T BX2 BX3 BX4 Total OA Rate
Hal McRae 1890 36 9 0 45 42.0
Albert Belle 1345 28 4 0 32 42.0
Chet Lemon 1660 29 7 2 38 43.7
Jose Cardenal 1159 23 2 0 25 46.4
Vladimir Guerrero 1448 23 8 0 31 46.7
Brian McRae 1233 21 4 0 25 49.3
Reggie Smith 1302 20 5 1 26 50.1
Fernando Vina 1156 17 5 1 23 50.3
Mike Scioscia 1063 19 2 0 21 50.6
Enos Cabell 1587 21 9 1 31 51.2
Jose Valentin 1062 14 5 1 20 53.1
Cesar Cedeno 1888 29 6 0 35 53.9
Keith Moreland 1158 14 7 0 21 55.1
Aurelio Rodriguez 1240 16 5 1 22 56.4
Buddy Bell 2313 35 5 0 40 57.8
------------------------------------------------------------------
Edgar Renteria 1665 4 0 1 5 333.0
Orlando Merced 1005 2 1 0 3 335.0
Mark Belanger 1015 2 0 1 3 338.3
Jim Sundberg 1398 4 0 0 4 349.5
Joe Randa 1420 3 1 0 4 355.0
John Kruk 1070 3 0 0 3 356.7
Walt Weiss 1182 2 1 0 3 394.0
Chris Speier 1647 3 0 1 4 411.8
Ichiro Suzuki 1293 2 1 0 3 431.0
Dan Driessen 1311 2 1 0 3 437.0
John Olerud 1984 4 0 0 4 496.0
Jeffrey Leonard 1198 2 0 0 2 599.0
Garret Anderson 1840 3 0 0 3 613.3
Darin Erstad 1391 1 0 0 1 1391.0
Robin Ventura 1591 1 0 0 1 1591.0
Jason Kendall 1667 1 0 0 1 1667.0
The most any one person was caught trying to go all the way was three times, a distinction shared by Lou Brock, Dave Chalk, Shawon Dunston, Roy Howell, Amos Otis, and Mike Schmidt.
0 comments have been left for this post.
