I would normally make this a “Prospectus Today,” but I missed Sunday’s newsletter after a cross-country flight and 14 hours of sleep. With just two hours to go until the Mets and Cardinals bring sunshine back to the world, I’ll use Unfilitered to get these out. The rules are the same as always: I compare my wins projections with the over-under totals at Pinnacle Sports to see where the most value can be had. Well, if betting were legal. Which it isn’t. ($1, Bill Simmons)
There appear to be five places where I differ enough from the posted numbers to feel strongly about a recommendation. It’s no surprise that the Diamondbacks are one: I have them winning 89 games against a 78.5 betting line. I may be wrong about the Snakes, but they will finish above .500. The biggest gap in the other direction is with the Nationals, who I have as a 57-win team, against a posted line of 68 wins. I can’t see this team not losing 100 games. The Nationals and Diamondbacks are the two best bets in season-long over/unders this year, for those of you interested in such things.
The other gaps of note are the Blue Jays (Sheehan: 76, Pinnacle: 87), the Angels (Sheehan: 80, Pinnacle: 90.5) and the Rangers (Sheehan: 89, Pinnacle: 80). I’m reasonably confident that these five teams represent the best values on the board this year.