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March 16, 2007, 02:47 AM ET
Skepticism & Despair: St. Louis Cardinals

by Nate Silver

So now the word is out that two-thirds of the Cardinals‘ starting outfield — Jim Edmonds and Juan Encarnacion — is likely to begin the season on the DL.

I don’t want to make too much of this. Neither player is expected to be out for all that long, though you have to wonder about Edmonds, who is recovering from two separate injuries (shoulder, foot), is 37 years old, and is no stranger to the Disabled List.

Still, these injuries are going to expose just how top-heavy the Cardinals are. The story I linked to above suggests that the Opening Day outfield might be Chris Duncan in left, Preston Wilson in center, and Scott Spiezio in right, which is not only a below-average offensive trio but might be the worst defensive outfield since the 1997 Oakland A’s. I don’t know whether injuries tend to snowball, but I do know they’re a bigger problem when neither your bench nor your farm system is ready to produce adequate replacements.

From my point of view, the most underreported story of the off-season is how Walt Jocketty — coming off a World Championship, and more than 3.4 million fans in his new ballpark — allowed the Cardinals to bleed talent when they desperately needed to add it. I’ve publicly disavowed PECOTA’s projection that the 2005 champs will finish with 90 losses, but it wouldn’t surprise me one bit if that’s where the 2006 champs wind up.

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