Approaching the July 31 trading deadline, and having already traded two members of their starting lineup in the past month, the rumors abound of the Pirates’ shopping second baseman Freddy Sanchez. Colorado and San Francisco are two teams mentioned to have an interest in the 31 year former batting champion, who will be making his third All-Star appearance this week.
One name mentioned possibly being sent Pittsburgh’s way is Colorado prospect Eric Young Jr, a 24 year old second baseman, now playing at Triple-A Colorado Springs. The trading strategy of Pirates’ GM Neil Huntington has been to exchange his multi-million dollar veterans for younger players with lots of upside. Looking at the raw statistics, Young appears to fill this template. Since hitting .264 in Rookie ball five years ago, Young has always posted batting averages between .290 and .301, with a career minor league on base percentage of .383. On Sunday, he thrilled the crowd in St. Louis with a long homerun to center in the Futures Game. Like his father, Young also deliver large numbers of stolen bases – 87 in 2006, 73 in 2007, and 48 little more than halfway through this season. However, looking at Young’s translated stats give a much different picture.
Despite climbing across four level in four years, my Oliver projections gives a very consistent representation of Young’s projected major league statistics.
Year Age Level BA OB SA wOBA AB H DO TR HR BB SO
2006 21 Low-A .251 .327 .355 .307 323 81 14 4 4 33 61
2007 22 High-A .251 .315 .361 .302 414 104 18 5 6 34 81
2008 23 Double-A .254 .325 .356 .307 414 105 19 4 5 39 84
2009 24 Triple-A .255 .326 .359 .308 384 98 17 4 5 35 76
I do not have any numbers for Young’s defense, and I expect him to be able to steal at least 50 bases in a major league season, but average BABIP, average walks, average strike outs, and 40% of the league average homerun rate make for a hitter who would struggle to be a starting major league second baseman.
I do not see the upside in Eric Young Jr’s batting stats, and would hope that the Pirates shop Freddy Sanchez elsewhere.
I really liked this bit, as Brian moved from a macro-level work that is so impressive to a more basic argument about why he doesn't like this particular rumor.
Agreed that the analysis of EY Jr is good, but should the Bucs expect to get more for Sanchez? Sanchez himself, it seems to me, often struggles to be a starting MLB 2B. Sure, when he hits .330 he's pretty good, but last year it was .270 without walks, power, or even league-average fielding. With his salary, I'd think a B prospect is all that should come back to Pittsburgh.
That is the problem with Sanchez, he has to hit over .300 so that his double and singles combined with few homers or walks are productive. 2008 was a lost year with a lingering shoulder injury, but now may be the last chance to sell high. I would not expect a Matt laPorta like talent for Sanchez, but in exchange for helping another team in their pennant chase it would be nice to get someone who at least projects to be average.
Freddy Sanchez has a career 100 OPS+; exactly league-average. His fielding numbers are sort of all-over-the-place; let's call it league-average as well.
I understand that your Oliver projections show EY as a below-average hitter. But if he's also capable of playing Gold Glove defense at 2nd AND has game-changing speed (say, 40 net steals), then I would think that combo would add up to at least as much net value as Mr. League Average.
Now, don't get me wrong -- I don't know whether EY has Gold Glove-level defense or game-changing speed. (I suspect he falls a little short on both.) But it seems to me that you can't reach a conclusion as to whether Sanchez is worth EY without at least attempting to measure those contributions as well.
We all pretty well know how god Freddy Sanchez is, and this is probably the last best chance to sell high with him.
I wanted to focus on maximizing the return, pointing out that Young's 'raw' stats look impressive enough, but not when translated.
I pointed out that I do not know Young's defense, and I do believe this is a necessary piece of information. I have minor league play by play data, and am working on the database code to extract defensive ratings. If I join BP, they likely have more tailor made data available, as Dan Fox did do a minor league Simple Fielding Runs in 2007.
Andrew McCutchen has an average bat for center field. He will add value through his speed and defense. Eric Young is a below average bat for second base. He obviously has speed, and a big I Don't Know about his defense. Even if Young is a gold-glover, how many of those types do you put in the lineup at one time? I think McCutchen's arrival was part of the reason for Nyjer Morgan's departure.
As an additional idea for future Unfiltereds of this type... is an EY more valuable at Coors than in Pittsburgh? Similarly, how would Sanchez (who I am not a fan of) translate over to Coors?
I like this kind of analysis on how prospects could perform in the major leagues, especially in the context of potential trades. Whether or not to trade EY is a topic of debate here where I live in Denver.
Good job, Brian. Nice and to the point - great for reading at work! I like this type of stuff in an Unfiltered format - bite size takeaways for when I don't have a half hour to burn at the computer.
This is much more like a typical Unfiltered post than those submitted by your competitors.
I would love to see more posts just like this one as trade deadlines approach. Team-specific blogs will often run similar articles, but without the international visibility and accountability of a place like BP (though they probably know their team's farm system better).
In addition to the statistical projections of Eric Young, though, there should also be some consideration given to scouts' analysis. And more important than that is the very real possibility that, because he was raised by a man who played pro ball, he has the temperament and experience to, at the very least, not be a total bust. Tony Gwynn Jr., for instance, might be only a replacement level player, but we can rest assured that he won't be a total flake or become listless and despondent when he slumps.
I don't know. Maybe I've just developed such an affinity for EY Sr.'s jocular warmth on 'Baseball Tonight' that I just can't help but be bias towards the spawn of his loins!
Eh... one of the best father/son duos right now was/is Cecil and Prince Fielder, and they are estranged... also, some sons of major leaguers get drafted as organizational favors and not as much on their baseball ability. So, while the father/son aspect might be a factor, I don't think it is "more important" than a scout's (or sabremetrician's) analysis
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I really liked this bit, as Brian moved from a macro-level work that is so impressive to a more basic argument about why he doesn't like this particular rumor.