The depth charts (and the player forecast manager, PFM) got updated this weekend. The intention was, and still is, do revise them roughly weekly from here on out; that this one stretched out to a month was entirely my fault, generated by a bout of ill health and frantic catching up across the board.
But we are somewtat better (and at least able to function) now, and I’ve tried to catch up on the charts. One of the toughest decisions to make - and one which turned out to delay the process - was to rewrite them so that they only reflected what was left of the season, not what has gone before. A player who just came back now after missing all of April could be listed as a 90-95% player (no one, ever, lists at 100%) if he’s expected to play every day. The PFM should give $$ values for the player’s remaining value only. I am pretty sure that this is the right way to do it, but it did mean a lot of effort had to go into debugging the spreadsheet that I use to tie all of the information together - the concept that all estimates are for 162 games was hard-coded all over the place, a process that by itself took the better part of a week to sort through.
At this moment, the program is still using the base PECOTA projections from the pre-season, unmodified except for playing time. That is going to change, although I’m not sure exactly how - probably by using some combination of PECOTA modified by current performance, at least at first, and I hope eventually by a new PECOTA run that explicitly incorporates the current season. On the depth chart page itself, I think I need to add some indication of the team’s record-to-date, not just their expected future record, which is what you’ll see right now.
One thing I have done is to take the team projections from the depth chart and start using it in the PECOTA-based postseason odds report, instead of the pre-season PECOTA numbers. So as of this morning, the PECOTA-based postseason odds report does know that Manny Ramirez was suspended for 50 games, and does knock some points off the Dodgers’ success chances (though they’re still strong favorites). I’ll continue to update that, as injuries and trades change team strengths.
We haven’t tried to run these throughout an entire season before, so I’m sure there’s bound to be some more hiccups, and I’ll try to keep breathing evenly through them.