This week’s Wait ‘Til Next Year is coming tomorrow, but it won’t be of the usual sort — my college focus will be historically research-based, so I think it’s more appropriate to put our weekly top 25 here in Unfiltered. We see a shift atop the rankings this week, because although both LSU and Fullerton lost two games, it’s becoming more difficult to ignore the Titans wins against the hardest schedule in college baseball.
1. Cal State Fullerton
2. Louisiana State
3. Texas
4. North Carolina
5. Rice
6. Texas A&M
7. Georgia
8. Baylor
9. Georgia Tech
10. Arizona State
11. Irvine
12. Miami
13. Oklahoma
14. Arkansas
15. Texas Christian
16. Oklahoma State
17. Ole Miss
18. East Carolina
19. San Diego
20. Cal Poly
21. College of Charleston
22. Coastal Carolina
23. UC Riverside
24. San Diego State
25. Ohio State
Pepperdine is effectively replaced by the Stephen Strasburg gang, as the Aztecs won a big series against their conference rivals (TCU), while the Waves were swept by theirs (San Diego). Ohio State and College of Charleston just keep on winning, and both are going to be tough, under the radar two-seeds in regionals this May. The Georgia Tech series win over Miami returns the Yellow Jackets to the top ten, which saw little change besides the swap at the top.
It’s also not hyperbole to say that this weekend will be the most substantial of the season thus far. We have four series featuring teams exclusively in the top 16, which is going to really help us sort out that jumbled mess next week. For now, I’ll just tell you where I wish I’d be this weekend:
Friday: Texas A&M at Texas Tech, Brooks Raley vs. Miles Morgan. This was difficult to decide, but these arms will have the radar guns out on every pitch. Raley is the new hot stock in college baseball, a fantastic athlete that, oh by the way, touches 92 with his fastball (from the left side). Morgan is still recovering from arm surgery, but before he was injured, was one of the top arms in this class. Reports have been good on his stuff, and it’s doubtful he’ll make it past the fifth round.
Saturday: UC Irvine at Cal State Fullerton, Christian Bergman vs. Noe Ramirez. From a stuff perspective, this isn’t the best Saturday choice. But these are two gutsy pitchers that throw good sinkers, and this will be as hard fought as any series in the nation. Irvine is on a roll, but this won’t be Fullerton’s first test against a good team. In this contest, the best defense is going to win.
Sunday: Kentucky at Ole Miss, Alex Meyer vs. Scott Bittle. One of college baseball’s best new arms against one of the nation’s most dominant veterans, this is the pitching match-up of the weekend. The Rebels decision to finally put Bittle in the weekend rotation is probably overdue, and he did much to prove it last Sunday, striking out 10 over seven innings. Meyer was enigmatic in his last start, and will likely be for much of this season. But outside of Stephen Strasburg, Gerrit Cole and Kyle Blair, I’m not sure there’s a better arm in the country.
How do injuries that are not supposed to be season ending affect your standings? Obviouly I'm speaking specifically of Rice, but the question could apply to any team (for example Vanderbilt last year when Alvarez broke his hamate bone). It doesn't seem like you factored this news into your standings at all.
Is this because you are taking a more long-term look at the injury situation (Berry and Ojala should be fine before the postseason).
Or are you just taking a short-term, results-based look at things (Rice was fine last week without them so no sense dropping them in the rankings unless they start losing).
Or do you think Rice is #5 even without Ojala and Berry?
Just curious how you approach injuries in general.
Good question. The rankings, at this point in a season, are a combination of what a team has done, and what I believe a team is capable of. The Rice resume is very deserving of the 5-spot in the rankings, and when Berry and Ojala return, I think they have Omaha potential (and thus, have the potential to deserve their spot).
That said, the team is probably going to struggle a bit with Berry and Ojala out, and that will effect them in the rankings, a bit. The committee probably won't cut Rice a lot of slack if they start dropping weekend series, so as a result, while their potential will remain the same in my mind, their road to reaching that potential could get more difficult (if that makes any sense).
So: if Rice starts losing, it won't impact my opinion of what their team might do, but it makes getting to Omaha more difficult. That would have to be reflected in the rankings.
Well, I think that really depends how organizations gauge Raley's answer when they ask him about his signability. I think, on pure talent, Raley's a supplemental first (late first, early second) type guy. But he's a sophomore, and it certainly wouldn't be the first time a guy fell in the draft because he used his leverage for a big demand. So Brooks needs to make a decision about whether or not to cash in now, or stay in school and see if he can't get into the first round in a weaker 2010 draft.
I don't think being the draft between Strasburg and Bryce Harper helps, but it doesn't look to be a very good crop. You have some nice pitching depth with Harvey, Blair, Loux, Raley, Workman, and I like Dietrich and Hague as shortstops, but then you start running out of names fast. You'll hear scouts hammer the draft for a lack of a top guy and a lack of depth. Never a good combo.
Bryan, Last week you talked about Kyle Roller (ECU) having a ridiculously good season. But, you also say "the 248-pound junior probably doesn't have a lot of professional potential". I'm curious (because I have no scouting background/knowledge whatsoever) what do scouts see that they don't like? Is it his build? Is it holes in his swing? Again, just curious. Also, sorry this is a week late, I just caught your last column.
First of all, Roller has spent some time at DH this season, and defensively, he's a bit of a mess. So to be successful at the pro level, he's going to have to hit like bonkers -- like he's been doing lately. Problem is, Roller is the type of player that you hear the scouting term "metal bat swing" thrown around -- let it be known, I haven't had conversations with scouts specifically about Roller, but he's not exactly a unique commodity. The fact that scouts aren't talking about his power potential tells you that they wonder if he'll hit for power as a pro. Roller's doing enough to be drafted, it's just doubtful he'll ever do enough to play in the bigs.
Thanks for the response. Having just moved to Greenville, NC, this is my first opportunity to really watch good college ball (as opposed to going to Phillies games). I haven't yet got a feel for how play translates from the college game to the pros, but I'm working on it.
What are your thoughts on fast-rising players for the upcoming draft? By at least one account, Jared Mitchell and Josh Phegley may be top-10 picks. Do you concur?
12 comments have been left for this post.
How do injuries that are not supposed to be season ending affect your standings? Obviouly I'm speaking specifically of Rice, but the question could apply to any team (for example Vanderbilt last year when Alvarez broke his hamate bone). It doesn't seem like you factored this news into your standings at all.
Is this because you are taking a more long-term look at the injury situation (Berry and Ojala should be fine before the postseason).
Or are you just taking a short-term, results-based look at things (Rice was fine last week without them so no sense dropping them in the rankings unless they start losing).
Or do you think Rice is #5 even without Ojala and Berry?
Just curious how you approach injuries in general.
Good question. The rankings, at this point in a season, are a combination of what a team has done, and what I believe a team is capable of. The Rice resume is very deserving of the 5-spot in the rankings, and when Berry and Ojala return, I think they have Omaha potential (and thus, have the potential to deserve their spot).
That said, the team is probably going to struggle a bit with Berry and Ojala out, and that will effect them in the rankings, a bit. The committee probably won't cut Rice a lot of slack if they start dropping weekend series, so as a result, while their potential will remain the same in my mind, their road to reaching that potential could get more difficult (if that makes any sense).
So: if Rice starts losing, it won't impact my opinion of what their team might do, but it makes getting to Omaha more difficult. That would have to be reflected in the rankings.