While watching Game 2, I felt like a lot of pitchers were nibbling, costing themselves pitches after getting ahead of hitters. I’m a pitch efficiency freak and while yes, you have to set hitters up, nibbling bugs me. So I asked Data Wizard (Level 24) Bil Burke to look something up for me. How many pitches does it take a guy to get the strikeout on someone after getting to and 0-2 count?
The answer: 2.22 more pitches, or 4.22 per at-bat when a 0-2 count is reached. Is putting away a guy quickly a skill? Here’s the top of the list and keep in mind the pitch is the total for the AB, so Hoffman needs just 1.5 more pitches to get the K:
Again, some good names and some guy you go “oh, yeah, him.” I’m not sure what this “nibble number” tells us, but I was curious and thought I’d share. What do you think it means?
I think your "nibble number" can't distinguish between pitchers who don't have an out pitch (e.g. Dan Wheeler) and pitchers who nibble (e.g. Chad Gaudin). You might want to look at the number of balls after 0-2, rather than the total number of pitches -- the guys who get fouled off repeatedly aren't nibbling.
Considering this is for a K only, I dont think it means anything. And because of only looking for the result of K, you end up with Livian and Mr. Eaton on the top of the list. Hoffman's number supports his amazing career and is more than likely a reason in which he has pitched as long as he has.
I think if you used these numbers in relation to IP or K/9, we might have a significantly better stat to work with. Those would certainly wash out the top and bump up some notables on the bottom of the list. The toughest part would be coming up with a measurable that would not wash out the number of pitches on the delta.
I almost commented on this as well. Certainly if you're going to count PA's that end in a K, you should also count the ones that end in a walk or HBP -- that's clearly relevant to "nibbling", and those PA should count against the pitchers who so thoroughly waste an 0-2 count.
Whether other PA's should be included is less clear, and depends on exactly what you're trying to measure. Guys who give up a lot of HR after 0-2 counts are clearly not nibbling, but is that a good thing? For the rest, I'm willing to believe that BABIP is less pitcher-independent than normal after an 0-2 count, but someone would have to actually come up with the numbers to prove it.
My observation the past couple years is that pitchers don't "nibble" on an 0-2 pitch, but waste a pitch that's nowhere near the strike zone. I'm not talking about "set-up" pitches, because many pitchers today don't do that. They seem to think an 0-2 pitch has to be thrown so it can't conceivably be called a strike, and the batter won't under any circumstances swing at it.
And why do hitters think swinging on a 3-1 count is mandatory?
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I think your "nibble number" can't distinguish between pitchers who don't have an out pitch (e.g. Dan Wheeler) and pitchers who nibble (e.g. Chad Gaudin). You might want to look at the number of balls after 0-2, rather than the total number of pitches -- the guys who get fouled off repeatedly aren't nibbling.