John Perrotto detailed the lineup changes for tonight’s Game Two. Just to take a look at them in a bit more detail…
If you combine the use of Rocco Baldelli tonight with the use of Ben Zobrist yesterday, you can conclude that Gabe Gross is something of an unperson now. Joe Maddon doesn’t seem to want to use Baldelli on consecutive days, so that left him choosing between Zobrist/Baldelli or Baldelli/Gross in these two games. That he chose the former, which entailed playing an unexperienced Zobrist in right field, does not bode well for Gross’ status. It will be interesting to see what Maddon does in Game Three; using Zobrist against Jamie Moyer would indicate Baldelli is starting Game Four against Joe Blanton, and confirming the burial of Gross.
Fernando Perez might be the best combination of all these talents, but is not under consideration for an increased role.
As mentioned in the linked piece, Maddon cited Brett Myers’ reverse split as a reason for the use of Baldelli tonight. Left-handed batters hit just .235 against him, righties .293. However, that’s entirely a balls-in-play thing. Myers had a much higher walk rate against lefties and similar isolated power against both sides. Against lefties, he allowed a .283 BABIP; against righties, .323. His “backwards” split is a statistical fluke, not a reflection of his skills.
Supporting this are two things: one, Myers’ skills. He’s a fastball/breaking ball pitcher, the type who typically has a normal platoon split, and his arm slot isn’t unusually over-the-top in a way that would change that. (Think about Mike Mussina, as a counter-example.) In his career, Myers has had better strikeout rates and fewer walks against lefties, although he does give up slightly more power to them. At best, he’s platoon-neutral.
Maddon’s decision to go Zobrist/Baldelli because he wanted Baldelli playing against Myers simply isn’t a good one. It’s based on the wrong information.
Charlie Manuel is playing Pedro Feliz at third base, DHing Greg Dobbs and benching Matt Stairs. This is based on in part on wanting Feliz’ glove on the field, which is defensible.
“I like Feliz’s defense at third base,” Manuel said. “I know that Dobbs hasn’t played on turf for two years.”
The other plank in the platform is Stairs’ career stats against Shields, which isn’t a good reason on which to base a decision. Three-for-20 isn’t enough information as compared to the career numbers of Stairs and Feliz. Given that the only player Manuel might pinch-hit for is Carlos Ruiz-and doing so with Stairs would probably cause a pitching change-Manuel is essentially forfeiting three at-bats of Stairs for Feliz’ glove. The Phillies are not so productive right now that the tradeoff makes sense, especially when you think about the right-handed strikeout pitcher on the mound for them tonight.
Once again, Manuel has Chase Utley and Ryan Howard batting back-to-back. Now, I’ll repeat what I said on BPR: the Phillies’ chance to win tonight’s game is in the first five innings, and by that, I mean hitting some longballs off of Shields in that time. They have to go deep to score, and tonight could well be the night Howard gets tracked. The man eviscerates right-handed pitching. Once 15 outs are up, though, the chance that Howard gets to face a right-hander plummets. By batting Utley directly in front of Howard, Manuel continues to make the tactical decisions easy for Maddon. It would be trivially easy, completely consistent with the players’ skill sets, to switch Utley and Jayson Werth (batting second) in the lineup. That one move won’t stop Maddon from targeting the two lefthanded batters, but it will create a cost to doing so.
By the way, if you had “yes” on the “Can Los Lonely Boys stretch the anthem longer than the Backstreet Boys did?” prop, collect your winnings.
As much as you been showing a disdain for the Phils (argue it, but it's there you ex-New Yawka), but you have been dead on about Howard and Utley. It isn't about helping Howard, but rather putting Burrell/Werth in the best position to succeed, and that is to get them an AB against a lefty in late innings.
Here is the problem with splitting Utley and Howard with Werth
Werth is .291/.374/.545 vs LHP and .251/.347/.408 vs RHP in his career.
Utley has a little bit of a split in favor of RHP, .306/.373/.546 to .280/.381/.479.
So it is an easy decision to let Utley hurt you a little more against a righty, and then kill Werth with the righty, and then go lefty with Howard.
Victorino has no splits to speak of: .289/.346/.404 vs RHP and .279/.346/.486 vs LHP. He's got a little more power against lefties, so again, you probably going righty, righty, lefty, and I'm not sure what you've gotten out of this, given you now have fewer people hitting in front of Utley, meaning there are less RBI opportunities for him.
Since when is .067 of SLG a "little bit" of a split, and .082 of SLG "no split to speak of"? I understand that OBP is Life, but when OBP is essentially equal in splitsville, you can look at the other numbers and still discern a significant difference. Weighing .008 of OBP vs .067 of SLG, I would personally take the SLG every day of the week and twice on Sunday. But the Victorino comment has me truly baffled.
On the other hand, much has been made of Howard's October slump, largely due to his sub-.350 SLG, but the man has put up a .400 OBP in the playoffs (entering the WS).
I guess if you're trying to make a particular argument, you can ignore those points that run counter - it just makes the argument that much less persuasive.
I guess the slugging is showing something there, I was mainly looking at the OBP. I'm still not convinced that moving Utley up to the 2 spot is ultimately the best choice here.
"So it is an easy decision to let Utley hurt you a little more against a righty, and then kill Werth with the righty, and then go lefty with Howard."
Aren't we working under the assumption that Werth is going to face a righty before the lefty comes in to face Utley and Howard? If so, isn't the only question from a raw numbers standpoint "who does Utley hit better?"? Is the lineup value of having Utley behind Werth greater than the value of letting Utley face his better side?
That sounds about right to me. Though the question may be "is the lineup value of having Utley behind Werth *all game long* greater than the value of letting Utley face his better side *in the latter part of the game when reliever matchups kick in*." I'm not sure this changes the answer of course.
The popular belief among major league managers and fans still appears to be that there is "lineup value" in having your best/better hitters (eg Utley) hit in the three- spot. Some studies have indicated that the two-spot is actually a better place to put a great hitter. I recall that a study in The Book (Tango, Lichtman and Dolphin) suggeested that normally the 3rd spot is a good place to put your 5th best hitter. (I'm sure I'm oversimplifying but...)
So I'd probably go with Utley in the two-spot, because of the matchup advantage AND the lineup value.
the problem with Joe's analysis is that the splits for Myers in favor of RHBs existed in the 3 years (2005-2007)BEFORE this year and are nearly the same as the current season (2008)
vs LHB (800 ABs) .238/.319/.397/.716
vs RHB (1000 ABs) .273/.316/.472/.788
I've known this because my strato team is top heavy with lefties and switch-hitters and my main division rival has used him against me very effectively the last 3 years ... so the split is real and reproducible
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As much as you been showing a disdain for the Phils (argue it, but it's there you ex-New Yawka), but you have been dead on about Howard and Utley. It isn't about helping Howard, but rather putting Burrell/Werth in the best position to succeed, and that is to get them an AB against a lefty in late innings.
Here is the problem with splitting Utley and Howard with Werth
Werth is .291/.374/.545 vs LHP and .251/.347/.408 vs RHP in his career.
Utley has a little bit of a split in favor of RHP, .306/.373/.546 to .280/.381/.479.
So it is an easy decision to let Utley hurt you a little more against a righty, and then kill Werth with the righty, and then go lefty with Howard.
Victorino has no splits to speak of: .289/.346/.404 vs RHP and .279/.346/.486 vs LHP. He's got a little more power against lefties, so again, you probably going righty, righty, lefty, and I'm not sure what you've gotten out of this, given you now have fewer people hitting in front of Utley, meaning there are less RBI opportunities for him.
Since when is .067 of SLG a "little bit" of a split, and .082 of SLG "no split to speak of"? I understand that OBP is Life, but when OBP is essentially equal in splitsville, you can look at the other numbers and still discern a significant difference. Weighing .008 of OBP vs .067 of SLG, I would personally take the SLG every day of the week and twice on Sunday. But the Victorino comment has me truly baffled.
On the other hand, much has been made of Howard's October slump, largely due to his sub-.350 SLG, but the man has put up a .400 OBP in the playoffs (entering the WS).
I guess if you're trying to make a particular argument, you can ignore those points that run counter - it just makes the argument that much less persuasive.
I guess the slugging is showing something there, I was mainly looking at the OBP. I'm still not convinced that moving Utley up to the 2 spot is ultimately the best choice here.