At the end of the 2006 season, the Kansas City Royals (you knew they’d be involved in this post somehow) were trying to complete an improbable sweep in Detroit, a sweep which would not only knock the Tigers out of first place, but just as importantly (since the Tigers and Twins were both going to the playoffs), would move the Royals a game ahead of the Devil Rays for the worst record in the majors.
The final game of the year went into extra innings. In the bottom of the 11th against Joe Nelson, with one out the Tigers got back to back singles from Ordonez and Guillen, with Guillen taking second base after an error. The Royals intentionally walked Ivan Rodriguez to pitch to Inge, who could have driven in the winning run without benefit of a hit. Instead, Inge struck out on a 2-2 count. Jimmy Gobble came in to retire Curtis Granderson, the Royals scored in the 12th, and held on to win.
Eight months later, the clear #1 player in the draft, David Price, was selected #1 overall - and because of the outcome of the game the previous October 1st, that #1 pick was the property of Tampa Bay.
As a Royals fan, what hurt the most was that I could see all of this happening in real time - I could watch David Price slipping out of my hands as Inge struck out. I had no doubt when the Royals held on for the win that the game would have a huge impact on the fortunes of the Royals. It didn’t occur to me that the game would have a far more immediate and undeniable impact on the fortunes of Tampa Bay.
The irony is that the Royals may yet be thankful that Nelson got out of that jam - while Price is a better prospect than Mike Moustakas, who the Royals selected with the #2 pick, Moustakas is certainly an elite prospect in his own right. It’s certainly not far-fetched that Moustakas will wind up with the better career in the long-run.
But neither Moustakas nor anyone else in the 2006 draft gets out of that bases-loaded two-out jam in the 8th tonight. No one but David Price blows away the Red Sox in the 9th. Without Price, the Rays might not be going to the World Series. Without Inge, the Rays might not have Price.
Makes me very happy that the Mariners wons some games at the end of the year to give the Nationals the top pick after the Nats almost blew it with some September wins.
I was thinking of the same thing except on the other side. I am dreading the day I have to watch Strausberg winning a World Series for the Nats while my M's are still waiting for Silva to finish out his contract. Why couldn't the Mariners lose two of three against the A's at the end of the year?
Now imagine how we Giants fans feel whenever we watch our club take the field without the numerous first-rounders that Sabean intentionally jettisoned with his signings of dead-meat FAs like Michael Tucker.
I was thinking about this same game the other day when Matt Stairs hit the homer for Philly. He also hit one in that game for the Tigers to tie it and send it to extra innings.
" ... Moustakas is certainly an elite prospect in his own right. It’s certainly not far-fetched that Moustakas will wind up with the better career in the long-run." Moustakas is good, but that's rationalization of the highest order.
It's a rationalization, but not a silly one. All things being equal, it's better to have an elite position player prospect than an elite pitching prospect. Position player prospects are much more projectible and much less likely to suffer major injury and wash out completely.
Of course, all things aren't equal...Price is a better pitching prospect than Moustakas is a position player prospect, so you'd definitely rather have Price. But it is quite true that one day we might look back and decide the Royals got the better player.
This is not a perfect comparison, but I remember 4-5 years ago or so, people will talking about how Minnesota blew it by taking Joe Mauer over Mark Prior, because Prior was dominating at the major league level. Just a few years later, it's already clear who's going to have the better career. (And while Mauer was taken #1 overall, at the time of the draft, Prior was seen as the clear best prospect...Minnesota selected Mauer due to expected price and maybe due to his being a home-town hero).
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Makes me very happy that the Mariners wons some games at the end of the year to give the Nationals the top pick after the Nats almost blew it with some September wins.
I was thinking of the same thing except on the other side. I am dreading the day I have to watch Strausberg winning a World Series for the Nats while my M's are still waiting for Silva to finish out his contract. Why couldn't the Mariners lose two of three against the A's at the end of the year?
The M's certainly appeared to be trying to lose down the stretch, but then in those last three games they seemingly gave up on it.