Just some thoughts in advance of tonight’s Brewers/Phillies game:
Dave Bush gets a closeup, and while Bush has, in the past, been a pitcher I pushed as a sleeper candidate, an underrated hurler, etc., I’m not sure this is the time to tout him as someone who might surprise this evening. Since a strong 2006 season, Bush’s peripherals have been slipping, with his strikeout rate and home-run rate going in opposite directions, leaving him a back-end starter rather than a #3 with #2 upside. You can ski on his Stuff scores: from 21 to 14 to 6 in three years. He survived this year on a very low BABIP (.238), and his problems with lefty batters (.244/.308/.473) could give him trouble against the Phillies’ lineup core. In six career starts against the Phillies-here’s your grain of salt-Bush has allowed 10 homers. Carlos Villanueva might be warming up right now.
The Brewers bats haven’t been good, with four singles, three doubles and five walks in two games. That’s it. They’re not quite as HR-dependent as the White Sox are, but they do need to hit some long balls if they’re going to win. The matchup of Jamie Moyer-despite his history of being effective against right-handed batters-is as good as it will get for the Brewers in this series. They have to take advantage of the situation.
The Phillies are 2-0 in this series without getting a ton from Ryan Howard and Chase Utley. The two are 1-for-12 with six walks the “1″ being Utley’s double Wednesday off of Mike Cameron. In what could well be a high-scoring affair tonight, with two good offensive teams facing #3 starters in a hitters’ park, what the Phillies get from their two best hitters could be a key to whether we see a Game Four in this series.
I can’t help but wonder, should the Brewers not win three straight games here, if it will have been worth it for them. Was it worth Matt LaPorta, a couple of other prospects, and the cash they paid Sabathia to have the September they had, and a couple of postseason home games? The cash will cancel out, so it just comes down to the question of whether the six years of LaPorta at below-market cost was worth it. We say, all the time, that flags fly forever; trading the future to win a championship is just something you have to do sometimes. But what happens when what you trade for is just a naked flagpole?
I don’t know if there’s a right answer. I just think the question is interesting.
I would think that the payoff for a team like the Brewers in making the playoffs for the first time in 25+ years would be greater than that of a team like, say the White Sox or the Twins, who have been to the playoffs on a fairly regular basis over the same time span. This appearance, even if it ends tonight, should do wonders to revitalize the Milwaukee fanbase.
The Brewers won 7 more games in 2008 than 2007 and sold 200k more tickets. Sabathia has to be a big part of those developments. Those tickets alone must be worth $5m. Without searching the site, didn't Nate Silver estimate that making it to the playoffs was worth $20-30m for a team? And the Brewers will still get draft picks when CC walks. So is LaPorta really better than $25m + draft picks + goodwill?
As a Milwaukee resident, I can attest that people have gone nuts for this team. I have colleagues that don't care about baseball rushing home to catch a couple innings of games, etc.
As long as Laporta is with the Indians, people will remember how dominate CC was as a Brewer. That has got to be worth something. I do think it is too early to ask this question. Assuming the Phillies beat them (which I suppose you are doing), you are comparing the known outcome (which is maybe a bit below what one would reasonably expect) of one side of the deal, with the unknown outcome of the Indian's side of the deal. The Brewers made the playoffs and it is very probable that they would not have had they not done the trade. As a Tribe fan who has been uber-excited about getting can't miss prospects like Marte, Brandon Phillips (not that I mind that trade of course), Alex Escobar(?), I am sad to admit that there is a very real chance that Laporta may be the key component to the next world series championship for the Indians. At the time the trade was made it was a good move. If they had to do it over again knowing that Sheets would be hurt for the playoffs and that they would have to rely on Dave Bush down 2 games to none... I bet they would still do it. Of course, if in 5 years Laporta has a few MVP-type seasons underneath his belt, maybe they would choose otherwise.
Don't forget assuming Sabathia walks next year the Brewers get 2 draft picks for him. LaPorta is defensively challenged just like Gamel and Fielder and that limits the value somewhat for an NL team. Sabathia was a significant fan draw as most or all of his games were sellouts and he was a huge boon to merchanidising, only Braun jerseys seem more common at games now.
I don't think this trade can really fail even if LaPorta ends up being a complete stud.
True, the draft picks have some value, but LaPorta is right now much more valuable. The cost of the picks is (obviously depending on who they select) betwen $3m and $10m in signing bonuses, with a much higher failure rate. LaPorta is essentially free (in baseball money terms) for the next 2-3 seasons and then dramatically below market after that.
The merchandising angle, like the revenues from today's game (and tomorrow's) are negated by CC's salary this year. They won't be selling more Sabathia jerseys in coming years, and if LaPorta is a stud, they'll only serve as a reminder of the cost.
Perhaps the playoff run will "energize" the fan base long-term. If it doesn't though, and say LaPorta is a 4 win player for three of his team-controlled seasons. What are the odds the Brewers will be within 4 of the playoffs in the next few years? Further, the money LaPorta "saves" by being good and inexpensive could be spent on players who could get them above the threshold. This is all predicated on his being a good/very good player.
But for clubs in small markets, sacrificing several years of success for 1/7 (presuming Sabathia's value as Secret Sauce improves the Brewers' odds in the playoffs) chance of a World Series seems steep.
Whether or not LaPorta is essentially free, he still has to produce on the field. As someone pointed out above, since he is defensively challenged, his value to the Brewers is lessened. Plus the fact that at the moment, there isn't anywhere for him to play (he's not better than Braun or Fielder and may not be better than Hart). Also, the fact that the Brewers have Mat Gamel (who hit nearly as well as LaPorta at Double A and is a year younger) makes it easier to trade LaPorta.
I think for many people, especially the writers at BP, the value of prospects has become way too high. Overvaluing prospects leads to decisions like the one Cashman made, thinking that the potential value of Hughes, etc. was worth more than Johan's. Certainly that move cost the Yankees a playoff spot this season and who knows what the effect is going to be down the road.
LaPorta may be good, but he was effectively blocked by young, good players already on the Brewers (Fielder, Braun). His best value to the Brewers was as trade bait. CC almost single-handedly got them to the playoffs, which represents the best in-season trade value you could possibly get. Finally, LaPorta is just as likely to be adequate as he is to be great (this is the case for virtually all young players whose value comes solely from one aspect of their game).
Perhaps the problem is looking at the outcomes. Yes, a naked flagpole wasn't the Brewers goal, but they got *exactly* what the bargained for: a chance at post-season success. I guess I just think of it as [chance of winning]*[value of the flag] + [1-chance of winning*[~0].
It's still a good bet, even if it doesn't pan out.
I feel like BP at times has a tendency to underrate the inherent value of a chance. The Brewers aren't dead, but remain unlikely to progress much further. Hence, we question w hether they gave up too much for a season ending inan LDS. As a Dodger fan, I asked this myself in 2006. Howevver, in the end, the improvement in probability the Brewers gained from Sabathia has a value, and its one that was worth some expenditure (qualified somehow, ie, a 45% chance at an LCS appearance, appearing is worth X, therefore..) that can't be treated like a bad investment simply because luck and probability did not work out in their favor. The Brewers spent X for that opportunity - because its not an opportunity every team actually has, and a profitable one. How much is a 10% chance to win the WS this season worth? That's how something like this has to be evaluated, because Sabathia was (and to an extent could be reasonably expeccted to have been) a significant factor in the playoff appearance. Losing out of hte LDS means you didn't get the prize, but simply having that opportunity has a significant value - after all, the best way to win the prize is to have a lot of 20-30% shots at it, not one or two 50-60% shots.
Take your shot. Live with the consequences. You have to live down the Selig legacy before you get cute with getting to the playoffs with an optimal chance of success at a minimal cost. It's going to take a lot of chances to pull off that win.
Really good stuff here. Seems like the consensus is that the deal was worth it--and of course, the Brewers are still playing, so...
I disagree that BP, as a group, overvalues young players. I think, if anything, the industry has followed our lead, going back a decade, about the value players below arb and FA thresholds have.
The trade was the right play for the Brewers. The certain end here is that they made the postseason for the first time in 25 years and that Sabathia was the reason. It's not like you can marginalize his impact as part of the team in a larger sense. They got in by a single game based on a dominating start he contributed on the final day of the season. Contributions to team success don't get any more obvious than Sabathia's as a Brewer.
No one really has a sound grasp of what LaPorta's value as a major leaguer will be, so it's putting the cart before the horse to talk about "control" of him for however-many seasons into the future. There is also the matter of where he would actually play for Milwaukee, and the presence of young building blocks at first and in left render LaPorta less valuable to the Brewers than he would be to other teams. My feeling is that he's going to have to turn out to be Ryan Braun Jr. in order to make Milwaukee seriously revisit the decision to deal him.
Joe, I agree you and other contributors to this site have lead to baseball being able to properly value young player/prospects. However there is one area that is overlooked and not yet factored into all of this. Emotion and the role emotion plays in the connection between a team and its fans. I work in marketing with a consumer products company, I can tell you that all of those marketing dollars are spent to try to create an emotional connection with our core consumer. Emotional connection is a very, very difficult thing to quantify and put a price tag on. But we do know that the greater the emotional connection, the more loyal consumers we will have, the greater margins we can make....profits..etc. These loyal consumers will even buy into new products that they otherwise would not try. With a stong emotional connect, your consumers, your fans will stick with you during the (downturn) times when you are not spending huge amounts of money on marketing
The Brewers move to add CC was not just a home run with the fans, it was an emotional grand slam for the Brewers brand. The Brewers franchise has a willing and able fan base, after all these are the same fans that worship the Packers and travel across the universe to see the Badgers football team play--they can dial up fandom as high as any fan base. Brewers fans have always felt, team management was cheap and unwilling to make any move, let alone a bold move (and expensive move), to try to win. Brewers fans have been yerning to see a winner, any kind of a winner for literally decades. The CC trade changed all of this. CC was clearly the reason Milwaukee made the postseason. CC was the reason Milwaukee ended up with 41 sell outs and finished 9th in attendance, ahead of Boston. I am sure next season the excitement for the Brewers (even without CC) will be much greater because of CC's presense and the fact this team made the playoffs in 2008 and changed the image of the Brewers from a team that was never really serious about competing, to one that can fight and one that won't give up without trying. People can much more easily root for a team like this, then one that people think and know, isn't serious about winning.
What is that worth? Hard to say. I think the missing piece of the equation in evaluating baseball ROI of any move, is the emotional connection between the team (product) and fans (consumer). I think the A's, who have demonstrated brillance in running their baseball operations, have been missing, or disregarding, branding and maintaining a emotional connection with their fans. You can't ever manage a product and disrespect the deep emotional connection between your product and fans. The team should factor in branding and emotional connections during this process of cold-blooded roster management. That connection, your brand, has a price tag too, and it is something that takes time to build up and something that can be destroyed overnight.
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To be fair, when you haven't been to the playoffs in 20-some-odd years, just making it means quite a lot.