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Articles Tagged Win Curve 

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07-30

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10

Pebble Hunting: The Oakland A's and Getting Past Windows
by
Sam Miller

03-30

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3

The BP Wayback Machine: Defending Jeffrey
by
Nate Silver

10-08

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5

Playoff Prospectus: ALCS Preview
by
Ben Lindbergh and Derek Carty

08-04

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1

The Asian Equation: Finding Relief from NPB
by
Michael Street

11-16

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3

Prospectus Q&A: J.C. Bradbury, Part I
by
David Laurila

02-12

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18

Prospectus Hit and Run: AL East Competitive Ecology
by
Jay Jaffe

02-03

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13

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Lay of the Land
by
Jay Jaffe

12-17

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26

Ahead in the Count: Anatomy of a Blockbuster
by
Matt Swartz

10-09

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42

Prospectus Today: Second Day Roundup
by
Joe Sheehan

09-24

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27

The Biz Beat: Fixing the GM Rankings
by
Shawn Hoffman

08-20

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57

The Biz Beat: A New Way to Rank the GMs
by
Shawn Hoffman

08-01

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0

Transaction Analysis: Deadline Day
by
Christina Kahrl

05-17

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Schrodinger's Bat: Organized Common Sense
by
Dan Fox

04-30

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0

The Ledger Domain: Q&A with Vince Gennaro
by
Maury Brown

10-27

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Prospectus Today: Game Four
by
Joe Sheehan

10-16

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0

Future Shock: Monday Morning Ten-Pack
by
Kevin Goldstein

10-16

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Prospectus Today: LCS, Day Six
by
Joe Sheehan

10-14

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0

Future Shock: Where Did the Tigers and the Athletics Come From?
by
Kevin Goldstein

10-14

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0

Prospectus Today: LCS, Day Four
by
Joe Sheehan

10-14

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0

Playoff Prospectus: The Best and Worst of Mets and Cardinals Postseason Pitching
by
Jim Baker

10-13

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0

Prospectus Today: LCS, Day Three
by
Joe Sheehan

10-12

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0

Prospectus Today: The Games Go On
by
Joe Sheehan

10-12

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0

Player Profile
by
Marc Normandin

10-11

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Remembering Buck O'Neil
by
Alex Belth

10-11

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Prospectus Today: LCS, Day One
by
Joe Sheehan

10-09

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0

Completely Random Statistical Trivia
by
Keith Woolner

10-09

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Prospectus Today: Division Series, Day Six
by
Joe Sheehan

10-07

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Prospectus Today: Division Series, Day Four
by
Joe Sheehan

10-06

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Prospectus Today: Division Series, Day Three
by
Joe Sheehan

10-06

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0

Prospectus Matchups: October Musings
by
Jim Baker

10-05

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Prospectus Today: Division Series, Day Two
by
Joe Sheehan

07-07

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0

Schrodinger's Bat: Thinking and Rethinking: Part 2
by
Dan Fox

04-27

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0

Schrodinger's Bat: Of Crowds and Splits
by
Dan Fox

04-06

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0

Schrodinger's Bat: Wins and the Quantum
by
Dan Fox

03-20

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0

2006--Setting the Stage
by
Jonah Keri

11-22

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0

Lies, Damned Lies: Defending Jeffrey
by
Nate Silver

10-12

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1

Lies, Damned Lies: A Mulligan on Guzman
by
Nate Silver

09-06

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Prospectus Game of the Week: St. Louis Cardinals @ Houston Astros, 9/4/05
by
Jonah Keri

05-31

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Prospectus Game of the Week: Detroit Tigers @ Baltimore Orioles, 5/29/05
by
Jonah Keri

04-25

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Prospectus Game of the Week: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs, 4/24/05
by
Jonah Keri

10-12

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0

Call It In The Air!
by
Dave Pease

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July 30, 2012 5:00 am

Pebble Hunting: The Oakland A's and Getting Past Windows

10

Sam Miller

Should teams that aren't expected to contend really always be sellers?

In a three-week period last December, the A’s traded the only two starting pitchers who had thrown 200 innings for them in the previous year, and the team’s closer. The moves left the A's with a starting rotation of Brandon McCarthy, one empty spot, and three pitchers who had a) combined for 17 starts in their careers and b) had never appeared on a Baseball America top 100.

The state of the team’s rotation, though, didn’t seem to matter. The A’s were not playing for this year, and with three trades in three weeks they made that very clear. Rather than criticize the A’s for failing to put a competitive team on the field, it was safe to applaud Billy Beane for putting Oakland in a position to someday put a competitive team on the field, someday in the future, someday after 2012. They punted. A prudent move.

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Once upon a time, the Marlins were big sellers, not big buyers. Their reputation took years to recover from their last big sell-off, but are firesales sometimes justified?

While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive (and mostly free) online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audiencesend us your suggestion.

Nate tackled the question of when it makes sense to be a seller in the article reproduced below, which originally ran as a "Lies, Damned Lies" column on November 22, 2005.

Read the full article...

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October 8, 2011 3:35 pm

Playoff Prospectus: ALCS Preview

5

Ben Lindbergh and Derek Carty

A look at the ALCS match-up between the Tigers and Rangers

Why the Tigers Will Win: Detroit boasts the best pitcher (Justin Verlander) and the best hitter (Miguel Cabrera) in the series. What’s that? Baseball is a team sport, you say? Okay, so cherry-picking players might not be the most honest means of handicapping a series, and Detroit is the underdog, the usual crapshoot caveats aside. However, you have to assume that Jose Valverde will guarantee victory at the first hint of a lead. So far he’s been almost infallible, except for the bit about the ALDS not going to Game Five.

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August 4, 2011 12:17 am

The Asian Equation: Finding Relief from NPB

1

Michael Street

In his fifth Asian Equation column, Michael looks at the relievers who have enjoyed modest success--and failure--making the move from Japan to America.

The last group in my analysis of the player’s who have migrated to MLB from Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) are the relievers, the least appreciated members of a successful baseball team. Yet, of all NPB imports, they have been the most numerous (explaining the length of this article, for which I apologize in advance) and the cheapest. Diminished quality is the most obvious reason for these extremes, since starters who don’t meet MLB standards get shifted to the bullpen, and lesser talents also keep salaries down. Additionally, the typical NPB pitcher’s arsenal matches well with an MLB reliever’s skillset.

As I discussed in my last Asian Equation article, NPB is a breaking ball league, which translates better to relief than starting. A good breaking ball might fool major league hitters the first or second time they see it in a game, but it probably won’t the third or fourth time. As an illustration, here’s how batter OPS rises against two of the biggest NPB starting-pitcher busts as compared with three current MLB pitchers: the best, the most mediocre, and an old junkballer. While MLB batters’ performance improves against each pitcher the more times they see him in a game, the change is far more dramatic with Matsuzaka and Kawakami.

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November 16, 2010 9:00 am

Prospectus Q&A: J.C. Bradbury, Part I

3

David Laurila

The baseball economist discusses market value, revenue sharing, and a player's value to various teams.

J.C. Bradbury is the author of The Baseball Economist and the newly-released Hot Stove Economics: Understanding Baseball’s Second Season. An associate professor at Kennesaw State University, Bradbury has a Ph.D. in economics from George Mason University.


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February 12, 2010 12:43 pm

Prospectus Hit and Run: AL East Competitive Ecology

18

Jay Jaffe

There's no denying it, this is the division where the big boys come to play.

It's no secret that the American League East has been the game's strongest division in recent years. They've produced the highest winning percentage and Hit List Factor by far over the past three years, as well as the last three AL pennant winners, two of the last three World Series champions, and the strongest fourth-place team of the wild-card era. With the two highest average payrolls, those of the Yankees and Red Sox, and a reliance on more free-agent muscle than any other division, this is baseball's high-rent district, though not every team is trying to spend with the big boys. As part of my ongoing series on the game's competitive ecology (introduced via a division-based overview, and continued with a look at the NL East), today we delve further into some numbers that illustrate that diversity.

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February 3, 2010 11:43 am

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Lay of the Land

13

Jay Jaffe

From several angles, the AL West could prove to be the best division in baseball.

In preparing a recent column regarding the Dodgers' payroll situation, I made reference to the competitive ecology in which the team competes. "Competitive ecology" is a phrase introduced into the Baseball Prospectus lexicon by Keith Woolner, who wrote about it several times in the context of market-size issues and better revenue-sharing plans. For my money, he summarized it best in a pre-BP post to a Red Sox mailing list that was far ahead of its time:

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December 17, 2009 4:26 pm

Ahead in the Count: Anatomy of a Blockbuster

26

Matt Swartz

It may seem as though everyone involved in the Aces-for-Prospects swaps came out ahead, but it simply isn't so.

The Blue Jays, Phillies, Mariners, and Athletics put together a blockbuster trade that has rarely been seen in baseball history: nine players will belong to new organizations next year, including two former Cy Young winners very much in their prime.

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October 9, 2009 1:04 pm

Prospectus Today: Second Day Roundup

42

Joe Sheehan

The Rockies knot things up while Los Dos Angeles take leads in their respective series.

Jim Tracy is going to win the NL Manager of the Year Award, because when you take over a team in May and that team plays .600 baseball under you and makes the playoffs, that's just the way it goes. When I wrote about the Rockies in July, I noted that their success seemed in part to be due to personnel decisions Tracy had made, largely in improving the defense.

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September 24, 2009 12:19 pm

The Biz Beat: Fixing the GM Rankings

27

Shawn Hoffman

Tweaking the system to better evaluate the benefits of draft position.

Way back in August of 2009, I tried to evaluate major league front offices on how efficiently they were spending their payroll dollars, building on the work of Doug Pappas and Nate Silver. I called it MR3/ExpMR-which was horrible. So from now on, we're going with Payroll Efficiency Rating, or PER. So there.

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August 20, 2009 12:10 pm

The Biz Beat: A New Way to Rank the GMs

57

Shawn Hoffman

Building on the work of Doug Pappas and Nate Silver, a new kind of scorecard.

Back in 2004, the late Doug Pappas came up with a simple way to evaluate how well each team was spending their money: marginal payroll per marginal win. Here's Doug's original formula:

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August 1, 2007 12:00 am

Transaction Analysis: Deadline Day

0

Christina Kahrl

The results, the winners, the losers, and the Pirates.

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