Rain (and snow) has wreaked havoc on the schedule in the first few weeks, but bad weather isn't always a significant drag on attendance.
We often think of baseball players as being the Boys of Summer. We envision the warmth of the sun on our face while we are laughing with the kids who are on break from school. The ballpark experience is the full embodiment of “summer.”
The problem is, we’re not quite there yet. Just because the 2013 season is underway doesn’t mean that we’re getting summertime weather. Far from it.
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Max examines all the factors that influence pitch velocity, lays out his simple and complex approaches to making PITCHf/x information more accurate, and determines how hard the Nationals are really throwing.
Cooling off the radar guns No more calling Strasburg's 91 mph pitch a 'changeup'. It's disheartening to like 98% of the rest of us for whom 91 is a 'fastball'.—@BMcCarthy32
If you want to estimate run-scoring accurately, what are all the factors you need to take into account?
The forces that influence run-scoring
As a reader of this site, you would be suspicious of any article that compared a starter’s ERA and a reliever’s ERA without making any adjustment for role: it has been shown several times (including by yours truly) that the luxury of pitching in short bursts and not having to face the same batters multiple times in a single outing significantly deflates relievers’ ERAs.
Similarly, we can’t model run-scoring on a team level without accounting for all the factors at play at any particular time. Many elements combine to shape the distribution of runs scored. Some of them are quite obvious, while others remain hidden until they’re exposed by the most brilliant analysts. In the following paragraphs, I’ll try to evaluate as many of those components as possible in an attempt to isolate their individual effects on offensive outcomes.
Examining attendance trends throughout Major League Baseball in the early going of 2012
You’re reading Baseball Prospectus, and I write for them. So, maybe not everyone will understand when I say that numbers are flat. They don’t tell the whole story. They can only get you close. What you have to have with numbers is “context.” I don’t care what the application of numbers is; if you don’t explain them, you’re only telling part of a story and, possibly, the wrong one.
Major League Baseball attendance is no different. The variables underneath what drives attendance figures are often overlooked. Each year I look at the numbers, and each year there seems to be something else to throw in to try and determine the underlying facets of them.
Revisiting Nate's attempt to quantify the trade-off in scheduling cold-weather games.
While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audience, send us your suggestion.
As we welcome another stretch of cold-weather baseball and its attendant scheduling concerns, here's another look at Nate Silver's statistical take on the subject in a "Lies, Damned Lies" column from April 13, 2007.
This year's World Series may be the latest ever on the calendar, but it's actually in for a bit of luck as far as the weather's concerned. Current forecasts suggest that we shouldn't see any temperatures worse than the mid-40s, and it's very possible it will be in the 50s most of the time.
Nate tries to quantify the trade-off in scheduling cold weather games.
Let’s face it: we live in a society that is reactive rather than proactive. In spite of years of warning to the contrary, it took a storm of epic proportions to make us recognize that New Orleans was a disaster waiting to happen. Airport security seems preoccupied with the question of what the terrorists thought of last time, rather than what they’re going to think of next. Less importantly but closer to home, it was only when the All-Star game ended in a tie that we came to recognize that such an outcome was probably inevitable until the rules of the contest were revised.