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Articles Tagged Walk-off Homer 

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06-22

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Daily Roundup: Around the League: June 22, 2013
by
Clint Chisam

06-14

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Daily Roundup: Around the League: June 14, 2013
by
Clint Chisam

06-08

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1

Daily Roundup: Around the League: June 8, 2013
by
Clint Chisam

06-05

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Daily Roundup: Around the League: June 5, 2013
by
Clint Chisam

06-01

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Daily Roundup: Around the League: June 1, 2013
by
Clint Chisam

05-21

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2

Daily Roundup: Around the League: May 21, 2013
by
Clint Chisam

05-17

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Daily Roundup: Around the League: May 17th, 2013
by
Clint Chisam

05-04

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Daily Roundup: Around the League: May 4, 2013
by
Clint Chisam

04-04

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4

Daily Roundup: Around the League: April 4, 2013
by
Clint Chisam and Joe Hamrahi

05-03

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What You Need to Know: Thursday, May 3
by
Daniel Rathman

10-23

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8

World Series Prospectus: Once, Twice, Three Times a Long Ball
by
Jay Jaffe

10-20

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16

World Series Prospectus: Opening Salvos
by
Jay Jaffe

10-05

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24

The Lineup Card: 10 Players Whose Careers Were Defined by Big Postseason Moments
by
Baseball Prospectus

09-28

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11

Prospectus Hit and Run: A Night in the Life of Team Entropy
by
Jay Jaffe

09-09

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4

Prospectus Hit and Run: NL Post-Season Rotation Ramble
by
Jay Jaffe

08-12

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7

Prospectus Hit and Run: WWWMW (What's Wrong With Mariano Week)
by
Jay Jaffe

08-10

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7

Prospectus Hit and Run: What the Halo?
by
Jay Jaffe

05-02

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6

Prospectus Hit and Run: Bautista's Enduring Young Charms
by
Jay Jaffe

10-27

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16

World Series Prospectus: Fall Classic Memories
by
Baseball Prospectus

10-14

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17

Playoff Prospectus: ALCS Preview: Rangers vs. Yankees
by
Jay Jaffe

08-12

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2

Prospectus Hit List: All Chipper'd Out?
by
Jay Jaffe

05-13

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10

Prospectus Hit List: Blowing Up
by
Jay Jaffe

10-29

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6

Prospectus Hit and Run: From One to the Other
by
Jay Jaffe

08-28

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14

Prospectus Hit List: Breaking in and Breaking Down
by
Jay Jaffe

05-01

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12

Prospectus Hit List: Back to Earth
by
Jay Jaffe

10-15

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5

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Comeback Kings
by
Jay Jaffe

08-08

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Prospectus Hit List: Still Rising in the East
by
Jay Jaffe

06-08

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Prospectus Hit List: Padres Riding High
by
Jay Jaffe

04-20

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Prospectus Hit List: Three Weeks In
by
Jay Jaffe

10-16

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Prospectus Today: LCS, Day Six
by
Joe Sheehan

10-14

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Prospectus Today: LCS, Day Four
by
Joe Sheehan

10-14

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Playoff Prospectus: The Best and Worst of Mets and Cardinals Postseason Pitching
by
Jim Baker

10-11

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Prospectus Today: LCS, Day One
by
Joe Sheehan

10-07

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Prospectus Today: Division Series, Day Four
by
Joe Sheehan

10-06

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Prospectus Today: Division Series, Day Three
by
Joe Sheehan

10-06

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Prospectus Matchups: October Musings
by
Jim Baker

10-04

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Prospectus Today: Division Series, Day One
by
Joe Sheehan

09-26

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Prospectus Hit List: Week of September 26
by
Jay Jaffe

06-27

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Prospectus Game of the Week: Houston Astros at Chicago White Sox, June 23, 2006
by
Derek Jacques

06-08

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Schrodinger's Bat: Swing and Miss
by
Dan Fox

05-16

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Prospectus Hit List: Week of May 14
by
Jay Jaffe

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May 1, 2009 1:02 pm

Prospectus Hit List: Back to Earth

12

Jay Jaffe

The leaders start coming back to the pack, while the Washington/Baltimore corridor gets acquainted with special ignominy.

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October 15, 2008 1:45 pm

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Comeback Kings

5

Jay Jaffe

With both League Championship Series at 3-1, what are the chances, and how often has it happened?

With both the Dodgers and Red Sox facing 3-1 deficits in their respective League Championship Series, the inevitable question being asked by advertisers and network executives desperate for a marquee World Series matchup-not to mention any fan who's decided they'd like to hear Tim McCarver, Joe Buck, and a chorus of moralizing pundits tell us even more about the Manny Ramirez saga-is, "Can they come back?" The answer is, probably not, as just 11 teams have come from down 3-1 to win a seven-game post-season series. Still, the legendary comebacks and heartbreaking collapses in those 11 series have stocked baseball lore with a memorable cast of heroes and villains, including Mickey Lolich, Willie Stargell, Don Denkinger, Donnie Moore, Steve Bartman, and Dave Roberts.

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August 8, 2008 12:00 am

Prospectus Hit List: Still Rising in the East

0

Jay Jaffe

This week's lifts, grifts, and drifts as the best part ways with the rest coming down the stretch.

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June 8, 2007 12:00 am

Prospectus Hit List: Padres Riding High

0

Jay Jaffe

They don't need Sister Sarah's mule to keep moving on up, but they're not the only improving SoCal squad.

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Forging ever deeper into the season, the teams on this weeks' Hit List are jockeying for position just as much here as in the standings.

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October 16, 2006 12:00 am

Prospectus Today: LCS, Day Six

0

Joe Sheehan

Our servers, like the Cardinals bullpen and the A's, crashed. Only two of those get to come back.

\nMathematically, leverage is based on the win expectancy work done by Keith Woolner in BP 2005, and is defined as the change in the probability of winning the game from scoring (or allowing) one additional run in the current game situation divided by the change in probability from scoring\n(or allowing) one run at the start of the game.'; xxxpxxxxx1161098296_18 = 'Adjusted Pitcher Wins. Thorn and Palmers method for calculating a starters value in wins. Included for comparison with SNVA. APW values here calculated using runs instead of earned runs.'; xxxpxxxxx1161098296_19 = 'Support Neutral Lineup-adjusted Value Added (SNVA adjusted for the MLVr of batters faced) per game pitched.'; xxxpxxxxx1161098296_20 = 'The number of double play opportunities (defined as less than two outs with runner(s) on first, first and second, or first second and third).'; xxxpxxxxx1161098296_21 = 'The percentage of double play opportunities turned into actual double plays by a pitcher or hitter.'; xxxpxxxxx1161098296_22 = 'Winning percentage. For teams, Win% is determined by dividing wins by games played. For pitchers, Win% is determined by dividing wins by total decisions. '; xxxpxxxxx1161098296_23 = 'Expected winning percentage for the pitcher, based on how often\na pitcher with the same innings pitched and runs allowed in each individual\ngame earned a win or loss historically in the modern era (1972-present).'; xxxpxxxxx1161098296_24 = 'Attrition Rate is the percent chance that a hitters plate appearances or a pitchers opposing batters faced will decrease by at least 50% relative to his Baseline playing time forecast. Although it is generally a good indicator of the risk of injury, Attrition Rate will also capture seasons in which his playing time decreases due to poor performance or managerial decisions. '; xxxpxxxxx1161098296_25 = 'Batting average (hitters) or batting average allowed (pitchers).'; xxxpxxxxx1161098296_26 = 'Average number of pitches per start.'; xxxpxxxxx1161098296_27 = 'Average Pitcher Abuse Points per game started.'; xxxpxxxxx1161098296_28 = 'Singles or singles allowed.'; xxxpxxxxx1161098296_29 = 'Batting average; hits divided by at-bats.'; xxxpxxxxx1161098296_30 = 'Percentage of pitches thrown for balls.'; xxxpxxxxx1161098296_31 = 'The Baseline forecast, although it does not appear here, is a crucial intermediate step in creating a players forecast. The Baseline developed based on the players previous three seasons of performance. Both major league and (translated) minor league performances are considered.

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October 14, 2006 12:00 am

Prospectus Today: LCS, Day Four

0

Joe Sheehan

The NLCS becomes a battle just as the ALCS is edging towards an end.

\nMathematically, leverage is based on the win expectancy work done by Keith Woolner in BP 2005, and is defined as the change in the probability of winning the game from scoring (or allowing) one additional run in the current game situation divided by the change in probability from scoring\n(or allowing) one run at the start of the game.'; xxxpxxxxx1160835748_18 = 'Adjusted Pitcher Wins. Thorn and Palmers method for calculating a starters value in wins. Included for comparison with SNVA. APW values here calculated using runs instead of earned runs.'; xxxpxxxxx1160835748_19 = 'Support Neutral Lineup-adjusted Value Added (SNVA adjusted for the MLVr of batters faced) per game pitched.'; xxxpxxxxx1160835748_20 = 'The number of double play opportunities (defined as less than two outs with runner(s) on first, first and second, or first second and third).'; xxxpxxxxx1160835748_21 = 'The percentage of double play opportunities turned into actual double plays by a pitcher or hitter.'; xxxpxxxxx1160835748_22 = 'Winning percentage. For teams, Win% is determined by dividing wins by games played. For pitchers, Win% is determined by dividing wins by total decisions. '; xxxpxxxxx1160835748_23 = 'Expected winning percentage for the pitcher, based on how often\na pitcher with the same innings pitched and runs allowed in each individual\ngame earned a win or loss historically in the modern era (1972-present).'; xxxpxxxxx1160835748_24 = 'Attrition Rate is the percent chance that a hitters plate appearances or a pitchers opposing batters faced will decrease by at least 50% relative to his Baseline playing time forecast. Although it is generally a good indicator of the risk of injury, Attrition Rate will also capture seasons in which his playing time decreases due to poor performance or managerial decisions. '; xxxpxxxxx1160835748_25 = 'Batting average (hitters) or batting average allowed (pitchers).'; xxxpxxxxx1160835748_26 = 'Average number of pitches per start.'; xxxpxxxxx1160835748_27 = 'Average Pitcher Abuse Points per game started.'; xxxpxxxxx1160835748_28 = 'Singles or singles allowed.'; xxxpxxxxx1160835748_29 = 'Batting average; hits divided by at-bats.'; xxxpxxxxx1160835748_30 = 'Percentage of pitches thrown for balls.'; xxxpxxxxx1160835748_31 = 'The Baseline forecast, although it does not appear here, is a crucial intermediate step in creating a players forecast. The Baseline developed based on the players previous three seasons of performance. Both major league and (translated) minor league performances are considered.

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Jim digs back and looks at the best starting efforts by the Mets and Cardinals in the era of divisional play.

\nMathematically, leverage is based on the win expectancy work done by Keith Woolner in BP 2005, and is defined as the change in the probability of winning the game from scoring (or allowing) one additional run in the current game situation divided by the change in probability from scoring\n(or allowing) one run at the start of the game.'; xxxpxxxxx1160845280_18 = 'Adjusted Pitcher Wins. Thorn and Palmers method for calculating a starters value in wins. Included for comparison with SNVA. APW values here calculated using runs instead of earned runs.'; xxxpxxxxx1160845280_19 = 'Support Neutral Lineup-adjusted Value Added (SNVA adjusted for the MLVr of batters faced) per game pitched.'; xxxpxxxxx1160845280_20 = 'The number of double play opportunities (defined as less than two outs with runner(s) on first, first and second, or first second and third).'; xxxpxxxxx1160845280_21 = 'The percentage of double play opportunities turned into actual double plays by a pitcher or hitter.'; xxxpxxxxx1160845280_22 = 'Winning percentage. For teams, Win% is determined by dividing wins by games played. For pitchers, Win% is determined by dividing wins by total decisions. '; xxxpxxxxx1160845280_23 = 'Expected winning percentage for the pitcher, based on how often\na pitcher with the same innings pitched and runs allowed in each individual\ngame earned a win or loss historically in the modern era (1972-present).'; xxxpxxxxx1160845280_24 = 'Attrition Rate is the percent chance that a hitters plate appearances or a pitchers opposing batters faced will decrease by at least 50% relative to his Baseline playing time forecast. Although it is generally a good indicator of the risk of injury, Attrition Rate will also capture seasons in which his playing time decreases due to poor performance or managerial decisions. '; xxxpxxxxx1160845280_25 = 'Batting average (hitters) or batting average allowed (pitchers).'; xxxpxxxxx1160845280_26 = 'Average number of pitches per start.'; xxxpxxxxx1160845280_27 = 'Average Pitcher Abuse Points per game started.'; xxxpxxxxx1160845280_28 = 'Singles or singles allowed.'; xxxpxxxxx1160845280_29 = 'Batting average; hits divided by at-bats.'; xxxpxxxxx1160845280_30 = 'Percentage of pitches thrown for balls.'; xxxpxxxxx1160845280_31 = 'The Baseline forecast, although it does not appear here, is a crucial intermediate step in creating a players forecast. The Baseline developed based on the players previous three seasons of performance. Both major league and (translated) minor league performances are considered.

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October 11, 2006 12:00 am

Prospectus Today: LCS, Day One

0

Joe Sheehan

The Tigers take on a completely different personality at the plate, and use it to win.

\nMathematically, leverage is based on the win expectancy work done by Keith Woolner in BP 2005, and is defined as the change in the probability of winning the game from scoring (or allowing) one additional run in the current game situation divided by the change in probability from scoring\n(or allowing) one run at the start of the game.'; xxxpxxxxx1160590386_18 = 'Adjusted Pitcher Wins. Thorn and Palmers method for calculating a starters value in wins. Included for comparison with SNVA. APW values here calculated using runs instead of earned runs.'; xxxpxxxxx1160590386_19 = 'Support Neutral Lineup-adjusted Value Added (SNVA adjusted for the MLVr of batters faced) per game pitched.'; xxxpxxxxx1160590386_20 = 'The number of double play opportunities (defined as less than two outs with runner(s) on first, first and second, or first second and third).'; xxxpxxxxx1160590386_21 = 'The percentage of double play opportunities turned into actual double plays by a pitcher or hitter.'; xxxpxxxxx1160590386_22 = 'Winning percentage. For teams, Win% is determined by dividing wins by games played. For pitchers, Win% is determined by dividing wins by total decisions. '; xxxpxxxxx1160590386_23 = 'Expected winning percentage for the pitcher, based on how often\na pitcher with the same innings pitched and runs allowed in each individual\ngame earned a win or loss historically in the modern era (1972-present).'; xxxpxxxxx1160590386_24 = 'Attrition Rate is the percent chance that a hitters plate appearances or a pitchers opposing batters faced will decrease by at least 50% relative to his Baseline playing time forecast. Although it is generally a good indicator of the risk of injury, Attrition Rate will also capture seasons in which his playing time decreases due to poor performance or managerial decisions. '; xxxpxxxxx1160590386_25 = 'Batting average (hitters) or batting average allowed (pitchers).'; xxxpxxxxx1160590386_26 = 'Average number of pitches per start.'; xxxpxxxxx1160590386_27 = 'Average Pitcher Abuse Points per game started.'; xxxpxxxxx1160590386_28 = 'Singles or singles allowed.'; xxxpxxxxx1160590386_29 = 'Batting average; hits divided by at-bats.'; xxxpxxxxx1160590386_30 = 'Percentage of pitches thrown for balls.'; xxxpxxxxx1160590386_31 = 'The Baseline forecast, although it does not appear here, is a crucial intermediate step in creating a players forecast. The Baseline developed based on the players previous three seasons of performance. Both major league and (translated) minor league performances are considered.

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October 7, 2006 12:00 am

Prospectus Today: Division Series, Day Four

0

Joe Sheehan

The A's won a Division Series, and they did it their way. The Tigers are one win away from joining them in an ALCS matchup no one predicted.

\nMathematically, leverage is based on the win expectancy work done by Keith Woolner in BP 2005, and is defined as the change in the probability of winning the game from scoring (or allowing) one additional run in the current game situation divided by the change in probability from scoring\n(or allowing) one run at the start of the game.'; xxxpxxxxx1160276734_18 = 'Adjusted Pitcher Wins. Thorn and Palmers method for calculating a starters value in wins. Included for comparison with SNVA. APW values here calculated using runs instead of earned runs.'; xxxpxxxxx1160276734_19 = 'Support Neutral Lineup-adjusted Value Added (SNVA adjusted for the MLVr of batters faced) per game pitched.'; xxxpxxxxx1160276734_20 = 'The number of double play opportunities (defined as less than two outs with runner(s) on first, first and second, or first second and third).'; xxxpxxxxx1160276734_21 = 'The percentage of double play opportunities turned into actual double plays by a pitcher or hitter.'; xxxpxxxxx1160276734_22 = 'Winning percentage. For teams, Win% is determined by dividing wins by games played. For pitchers, Win% is determined by dividing wins by total decisions. '; xxxpxxxxx1160276734_23 = 'Expected winning percentage for the pitcher, based on how often\na pitcher with the same innings pitched and runs allowed in each individual\ngame earned a win or loss historically in the modern era (1972-present).'; xxxpxxxxx1160276734_24 = 'Attrition Rate is the percent chance that a hitters plate appearances or a pitchers opposing batters faced will decrease by at least 50% relative to his Baseline playing time forecast. Although it is generally a good indicator of the risk of injury, Attrition Rate will also capture seasons in which his playing time decreases due to poor performance or managerial decisions. '; xxxpxxxxx1160276734_25 = 'Batting average (hitters) or batting average allowed (pitchers).'; xxxpxxxxx1160276734_26 = 'Average number of pitches per start.'; xxxpxxxxx1160276734_27 = 'Average Pitcher Abuse Points per game started.'; xxxpxxxxx1160276734_28 = 'Singles or singles allowed.'; xxxpxxxxx1160276734_29 = 'Batting average; hits divided by at-bats.'; xxxpxxxxx1160276734_30 = 'Percentage of pitches thrown for balls.'; xxxpxxxxx1160276734_31 = 'The Baseline forecast, although it does not appear here, is a crucial intermediate step in creating a players forecast. The Baseline developed based on the players previous three seasons of performance. Both major league and (translated) minor league performances are considered.

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October 6, 2006 12:00 am

Prospectus Today: Division Series, Day Three

0

Joe Sheehan

The Yankees continued their run through the ... hey, not so fast! In San Diego, the Cardinals continued to make a statement about the importance of home-field advantage, while in New York the Mets were the one team to keep order in the first two games.

\nMathematically, leverage is based on the win expectancy work done by Keith Woolner in BP 2005, and is defined as the change in the probability of winning the game from scoring (or allowing) one additional run in the current game situation divided by the change in probability from scoring\n(or allowing) one run at the start of the game.'; xxxpxxxxx1160157644_18 = 'Adjusted Pitcher Wins. Thorn and Palmers method for calculating a starters value in wins. Included for comparison with SNVA. APW values here calculated using runs instead of earned runs.'; xxxpxxxxx1160157644_19 = 'Support Neutral Lineup-adjusted Value Added (SNVA adjusted for the MLVr of batters faced) per game pitched.'; xxxpxxxxx1160157644_20 = 'The number of double play opportunities (defined as less than two outs with runner(s) on first, first and second, or first second and third).'; xxxpxxxxx1160157644_21 = 'The percentage of double play opportunities turned into actual double plays by a pitcher or hitter.'; xxxpxxxxx1160157644_22 = 'Winning percentage. For teams, Win% is determined by dividing wins by games played. For pitchers, Win% is determined by dividing wins by total decisions. '; xxxpxxxxx1160157644_23 = 'Expected winning percentage for the pitcher, based on how often\na pitcher with the same innings pitched and runs allowed in each individual\ngame earned a win or loss historically in the modern era (1972-present).'; xxxpxxxxx1160157644_24 = 'Attrition Rate is the percent chance that a hitters plate appearances or a pitchers opposing batters faced will decrease by at least 50% relative to his Baseline playing time forecast. Although it is generally a good indicator of the risk of injury, Attrition Rate will also capture seasons in which his playing time decreases due to poor performance or managerial decisions. '; xxxpxxxxx1160157644_25 = 'Batting average (hitters) or batting average allowed (pitchers).'; xxxpxxxxx1160157644_26 = 'Average number of pitches per start.'; xxxpxxxxx1160157644_27 = 'Average Pitcher Abuse Points per game started.'; xxxpxxxxx1160157644_28 = 'Singles or singles allowed.'; xxxpxxxxx1160157644_29 = 'Batting average; hits divided by at-bats.'; xxxpxxxxx1160157644_30 = 'Percentage of pitches thrown for balls.'; xxxpxxxxx1160157644_31 = 'The Baseline forecast, although it does not appear here, is a crucial intermediate step in creating a players forecast. The Baseline developed based on the players previous three seasons of performance. Both major league and (translated) minor league performances are considered.

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Jim cleans up some old business, ponders the all-time greats at second base, and tries to avoid throwing things at the TV set.

\nMathematically, leverage is based on the win expectancy work done by Keith Woolner in BP 2005, and is defined as the change in the probability of winning the game from scoring (or allowing) one additional run in the current game situation divided by the change in probability from scoring\n(or allowing) one run at the start of the game.'; xxxpxxxxx1160158525_18 = 'Adjusted Pitcher Wins. Thorn and Palmers method for calculating a starters value in wins. Included for comparison with SNVA. APW values here calculated using runs instead of earned runs.'; xxxpxxxxx1160158525_19 = 'Support Neutral Lineup-adjusted Value Added (SNVA adjusted for the MLVr of batters faced) per game pitched.'; xxxpxxxxx1160158525_20 = 'The number of double play opportunities (defined as less than two outs with runner(s) on first, first and second, or first second and third).'; xxxpxxxxx1160158525_21 = 'The percentage of double play opportunities turned into actual double plays by a pitcher or hitter.'; xxxpxxxxx1160158525_22 = 'Winning percentage. For teams, Win% is determined by dividing wins by games played. For pitchers, Win% is determined by dividing wins by total decisions. '; xxxpxxxxx1160158525_23 = 'Expected winning percentage for the pitcher, based on how often\na pitcher with the same innings pitched and runs allowed in each individual\ngame earned a win or loss historically in the modern era (1972-present).'; xxxpxxxxx1160158525_24 = 'Attrition Rate is the percent chance that a hitters plate appearances or a pitchers opposing batters faced will decrease by at least 50% relative to his Baseline playing time forecast. Although it is generally a good indicator of the risk of injury, Attrition Rate will also capture seasons in which his playing time decreases due to poor performance or managerial decisions. '; xxxpxxxxx1160158525_25 = 'Batting average (hitters) or batting average allowed (pitchers).'; xxxpxxxxx1160158525_26 = 'Average number of pitches per start.'; xxxpxxxxx1160158525_27 = 'Average Pitcher Abuse Points per game started.'; xxxpxxxxx1160158525_28 = 'Singles or singles allowed.'; xxxpxxxxx1160158525_29 = 'Batting average; hits divided by at-bats.'; xxxpxxxxx1160158525_30 = 'Percentage of pitches thrown for balls.'; xxxpxxxxx1160158525_31 = 'The Baseline forecast, although it does not appear here, is a crucial intermediate step in creating a players forecast. The Baseline developed based on the players previous three seasons of performance. Both major league and (translated) minor league performances are considered.

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