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Articles Tagged Walk Rate 

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05-10

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7

Fantasy Freestyle: Four Hot Hitters
by
Josh Shepardson

10-23

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2

BP Unfiltered: Dominican Players and Plate Discipline: Additional Data
by
Ben Lindbergh

10-23

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15

Baseball ProGUESTus: Finding a Way to Walk off the Island
by
Jorge Arangure Jr.

07-14

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5

BP Unfiltered: Francisco Liriano's Unconvincing Impression of a Minnesota Twin
by
Ben Lindbergh

06-24

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1

BP Unfiltered: Today's Tim McCarver Tracer
by
Ben Lindbergh

05-23

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3

Pebble Hunting: How Josh Harrison Beats Justin Verlander
by
Sam Miller

06-27

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3

Fantasy Beat: Who Am I?
by
Jason Collette

06-03

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2

Fantasy Beat: The Holy Trinity
by
Jason Collette

05-31

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5

Fantasy Beat: Who Am I?
by
Jason Collette

04-29

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4

Fantasy Beat: Give Me Something!
by
Jason Collette

01-17

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0

Ahead in the Count: Situational Pitching
by
Matt Swartz

10-01

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4

Ahead in the Count: Pitch Data and Walks
by
Matt Swartz

08-04

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2

Seidnotes: Let's Go for a Free Pass
by
Eric Seidman

07-22

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6

Changing Speeds: Cold Fusion
by
Ken Funck

05-28

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2

Fantasy Beat: Weekly Planner #9
by
Craig Brown

05-25

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6

Changing Speeds: Bounceback Pitchers
by
Ken Funck

11-25

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9

So You Need: Firemen
by
Jay Jaffe

07-13

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46

Prospectus Idol Entry: Balls and Strikes, Walks and Strikeouts
by
Brian Cartwright

04-16

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17

Checking the Numbers: Keeping Rare Company
by
Eric Seidman

03-13

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31

Fantasy Beat: Starting Pitchers, Part II
by
Marc Normandin

09-11

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7

Player Profile: Cliff Lee
by
Marc Normandin, Eric Seidman and Kevin Goldstein

12-20

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0

Player Profile: Vernon Wells
by
Marc Normandin

10-16

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0

Future Shock: Monday Morning Ten-Pack
by
Kevin Goldstein

10-16

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0

Prospectus Today: LCS, Day Six
by
Joe Sheehan

10-14

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0

Future Shock: Where Did the Tigers and the Athletics Come From?
by
Kevin Goldstein

10-14

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0

Prospectus Today: LCS, Day Four
by
Joe Sheehan

10-14

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0

Playoff Prospectus: The Best and Worst of Mets and Cardinals Postseason Pitching
by
Jim Baker

10-13

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0

Prospectus Today: LCS, Day Three
by
Joe Sheehan

10-12

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0

Prospectus Today: The Games Go On
by
Joe Sheehan

10-12

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0

Player Profile
by
Marc Normandin

10-11

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0

Remembering Buck O'Neil
by
Alex Belth

10-11

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0

Prospectus Today: LCS, Day One
by
Joe Sheehan

10-09

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0

Completely Random Statistical Trivia
by
Keith Woolner

10-09

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0

Prospectus Today: Division Series, Day Six
by
Joe Sheehan

10-07

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0

Prospectus Today: Division Series, Day Four
by
Joe Sheehan

10-06

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0

Prospectus Today: Division Series, Day Three
by
Joe Sheehan

10-06

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0

Prospectus Matchups: October Musings
by
Jim Baker

10-05

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0

Prospectus Today: Division Series, Day Two
by
Joe Sheehan

09-07

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0

Lies, Damned Lies: What to Do With Papelbon
by
Nate Silver

03-30

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0

Schrodinger's Bat: Projecting Wily Mo
by
Dan Fox

03-15

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0

Lies, Damned Lies: Another Look at Plate Discipline
by
Nate Silver

07-28

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0

Lies, Damned Lies: Evaluating the Trade Bait
by
Nate Silver

06-01

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0

Lies, Damned Lies: Strikeouts and Hitter Projections
by
Nate Silver

08-18

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0

Prospectus Triple Play: Chicago White Sox, Oakland Athletics, Philadelphia Phillies
by
Baseball Prospectus

05-19

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0

Lies, Damned Lies: Groundballs in the Mix
by
Nate Silver

02-24

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0

Prospectus Roundtable: Top 50 Prospects, Part IV
by
Baseball Prospectus

07-12

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0

Aim For The Head: Walk Rate Spikes
by
Keith Woolner

10-12

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0

Call It In The Air!
by
Dave Pease

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August 4, 2010 8:00 am

Seidnotes: Let's Go for a Free Pass

2

Eric Seidman

Continuing an examination of Cliff Lee's season, here's a closer look at his home run and walk rates.

I've been thinking an awful lot about walks lately—not the kind I try to take each night before bed, but rather the kind that Cliff Lee now avoids with startling regularity. My last two Seidnotes columns focused on his fantastic season in an attempt to deduce whether or not anyone ever matched his potentially historic pace. Additionally, I used his numbers to illustrate the differences between the more common strikeout-to-walk ratio and the strikeout-minus-walk differential. Today, I frame his walk-averse campaign in a slightly different light. Entering his most recent complete-game loss, Lee issued seven walks while surrendering nine home runs.

Yes, the man had walked fewer batters than he had allowed home runs! An out-of-character, two-walk performance on Sunday tied the numbers, but I began to wonder how rare it is for dingers to exceed walks. With that in mind, my goals today are to explore this very phenomenon, and to discuss walks and walk rates on a very basic level, as the numbers are used very frequently, yet leaders in the respective categories are not exactly common knowledge.

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A look at the surprise home run hitters of 2010, relative to their pre-season PECOTA forecasts.

On Tuesday night in Kansas City, Blue Jays right fielder Jose Bautista launched his major league-leading 26th home run, continuing one of the most unexpected power surges in recent memory. Long known as a journeyman with decent patience and a modicum of power, few expected Bautista at this stage of his career to suddenly turn into a long-ball machine. It’s always fun to see players suddenly show a propensity for the long ball—perhaps we identify with players who manage the baseball equivalent of the young Marty McFly balling up his fist and decking Biff with an unexpected haymaker. 

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May 28, 2010 3:27 pm

Fantasy Beat: Weekly Planner #9

2

Craig Brown

Tons of options this week with many pitchers making two starts who should be available in mixed leagues.

It feels like a virtual buffet of starting pitching as there are quite a few opportunities this week await owners who can juggle their rotations.  If you are in a head to head league and don’t have start limits, this could be a week where you obtain a serious pitching advantage over your opponent.

As always the asterisk next to the pitcher’s name means he’s owned in less than 50% of ESPN or Yahoo leagues. The starters are provided by Heater Magazine and are subject to change.  You can download the weekly pdf file that contains this list here.

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May 25, 2010 8:55 am

Changing Speeds: Bounceback Pitchers

6

Ken Funck

A number of young hurlers are making strong comebacks in 2010.

Last week in this space, I took a look at hitters who had already exceeded their 2009 VORP in the early stages of 2010 and tried to determine whether those players were likely to build on their exceptional starts. This week, I’ll be doing the same for pitchers. I’ve selected the five starters and five relievers who have achieved the greatest VORP bouncebacks so far this year, compared to last year’s VORP tally or, for players that put up negative VORP performances last year, a replacement-level zero VORP. To make the starter list, a pitcher must have thrown at least 90 innings last season, while the cutoff for relievers is 40 innings. Those performance benchmarks are designed to ensure the players selected pitched significantly, if poorly, last season, and are off to a good start, rather than off to a mediocre start that’s much better than their disastrous 2009 numbers.

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November 25, 2009 2:11 pm

So You Need: Firemen

9

Jay Jaffe

What free-agent relievers could offer the best deals for their new teams?

As an understanding of advanced metrics has taken hold in major-league front offices, the market for free-agent relievers has shrunk considerably, even allowing for the harsh economic climate of the past two winters. Teams that were once willing to shell out multi-year contracts for closers and top set-up men are increasingly shying away from such deals, realizing that reliever performances are fairly volatile from year to year due to sample sizes (to say nothing of injuries), that free-agent compensation rules disproportionately penalize teams for signing relievers, and that they can do just about as well by hunting for bargains or giving opportunities to their own youngsters.

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To read Brian Cartwright's Unfiltered post following up on one of the audience's suggested topics, surf here.

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April 16, 2009 12:18 pm

Checking the Numbers: Keeping Rare Company

17

Eric Seidman

Ground-ball percentages go up for some pitchers, unintentional passes go down for others, but both at once, almost never.

While revisiting the 2008 dominance of Cliff Lee last week, we investigated how pitchers with similarly large spikes in ground-ball rates have fared in subsequent seasons. The results weren't pretty, and showed that massive rate increases in this area have been few and far between since 1954, and a very low percentage of these pitchers have been able to sustain these higher rates. The research in no way invalidated Lee's success, but rather suggested that factors outside of a change in approach could have an influence on his 2009 performance. Hurlers intent on inducing grounders tend to follow a different set of rules when it comes to HR/FB rates and their percentage of unearned runs than do their fly-balling colleagues, and the group relies on defense more than those whose skill is missing bats. Combine all of these ingredients, and it becomes evident that even if Lee were to become just the fourth post-1994 pitcher to increase his ground-ball rate by at least eight percent and then see it fall no lower than three percent over the following three seasons-all while meeting respectable playing time qualifiers-he is still not guaranteed even a fraction of the success he experienced last season.

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March 13, 2009 11:44 am

Fantasy Beat: Starting Pitchers, Part II

31

Marc Normandin

Once you move past the bigger names among the moundsmen, picking the right guys to round out your staff can make all the difference.

Continuing from where we left off earlier in the week, here's part two of my starting pitching rankings:

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From Buffalo banishment to AL Cy Young contender from one season to the next, how's he doing it?

Following his recent campaigns, Cliff Lee's 2008 season looks to have come completely out of the blue. What began as a productive year that many thought would fade with more innings has instead withstood the test of time, at least within the limits of this single season. What many people have forgotten is that there was a time when Cliff Lee was considered a quality prospect in the Expos' and Indians' systems, before fatigue, an inability to translate his pure stuff into results, and injuries all derailed what seemed like a promising career. Today we'll have a go at what we might expect from this new-look Lee going forward.

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J.P. Ricciardi made his Lone Star State center fielder change his travel plans, keeping him in Toronto until at least 2011. Was it the right move?

How well off the Jays will end up remains to be determined. Wells does not have the same problems in his batted-ball data that I usually work with in these profiles, but instead has a stark contrast between his home and road statistics that brings his true value into question.

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October 16, 2006 12:00 am

Future Shock: Monday Morning Ten-Pack

0

Kevin Goldstein

Kevin checks out the newsmakers in the winter leagues.

\nMathematically, leverage is based on the win expectancy work done by Keith Woolner in BP 2005, and is defined as the change in the probability of winning the game from scoring (or allowing) one additional run in the current game situation divided by the change in probability from scoring\n(or allowing) one run at the start of the game.'; xxxpxxxxx1160988517_18 = 'Adjusted Pitcher Wins. Thorn and Palmers method for calculating a starters value in wins. Included for comparison with SNVA. APW values here calculated using runs instead of earned runs.'; xxxpxxxxx1160988517_19 = 'Support Neutral Lineup-adjusted Value Added (SNVA adjusted for the MLVr of batters faced) per game pitched.'; xxxpxxxxx1160988517_20 = 'The number of double play opportunities (defined as less than two outs with runner(s) on first, first and second, or first second and third).'; xxxpxxxxx1160988517_21 = 'The percentage of double play opportunities turned into actual double plays by a pitcher or hitter.'; xxxpxxxxx1160988517_22 = 'Winning percentage. For teams, Win% is determined by dividing wins by games played. For pitchers, Win% is determined by dividing wins by total decisions. '; xxxpxxxxx1160988517_23 = 'Expected winning percentage for the pitcher, based on how often\na pitcher with the same innings pitched and runs allowed in each individual\ngame earned a win or loss historically in the modern era (1972-present).'; xxxpxxxxx1160988517_24 = 'Attrition Rate is the percent chance that a hitters plate appearances or a pitchers opposing batters faced will decrease by at least 50% relative to his Baseline playing time forecast. Although it is generally a good indicator of the risk of injury, Attrition Rate will also capture seasons in which his playing time decreases due to poor performance or managerial decisions. '; xxxpxxxxx1160988517_25 = 'Batting average (hitters) or batting average allowed (pitchers).'; xxxpxxxxx1160988517_26 = 'Average number of pitches per start.'; xxxpxxxxx1160988517_27 = 'Average Pitcher Abuse Points per game started.'; xxxpxxxxx1160988517_28 = 'Singles or singles allowed.'; xxxpxxxxx1160988517_29 = 'Batting average; hits divided by at-bats.'; xxxpxxxxx1160988517_30 = 'Percentage of pitches thrown for balls.'; xxxpxxxxx1160988517_31 = 'The Baseline forecast, although it does not appear here, is a crucial intermediate step in creating a players forecast. The Baseline developed based on the players previous three seasons of performance. Both major league and (translated) minor league performances are considered.

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October 16, 2006 12:00 am

Prospectus Today: LCS, Day Six

0

Joe Sheehan

Our servers, like the Cardinals bullpen and the A's, crashed. Only two of those get to come back.

\nMathematically, leverage is based on the win expectancy work done by Keith Woolner in BP 2005, and is defined as the change in the probability of winning the game from scoring (or allowing) one additional run in the current game situation divided by the change in probability from scoring\n(or allowing) one run at the start of the game.'; xxxpxxxxx1161098296_18 = 'Adjusted Pitcher Wins. Thorn and Palmers method for calculating a starters value in wins. Included for comparison with SNVA. APW values here calculated using runs instead of earned runs.'; xxxpxxxxx1161098296_19 = 'Support Neutral Lineup-adjusted Value Added (SNVA adjusted for the MLVr of batters faced) per game pitched.'; xxxpxxxxx1161098296_20 = 'The number of double play opportunities (defined as less than two outs with runner(s) on first, first and second, or first second and third).'; xxxpxxxxx1161098296_21 = 'The percentage of double play opportunities turned into actual double plays by a pitcher or hitter.'; xxxpxxxxx1161098296_22 = 'Winning percentage. For teams, Win% is determined by dividing wins by games played. For pitchers, Win% is determined by dividing wins by total decisions. '; xxxpxxxxx1161098296_23 = 'Expected winning percentage for the pitcher, based on how often\na pitcher with the same innings pitched and runs allowed in each individual\ngame earned a win or loss historically in the modern era (1972-present).'; xxxpxxxxx1161098296_24 = 'Attrition Rate is the percent chance that a hitters plate appearances or a pitchers opposing batters faced will decrease by at least 50% relative to his Baseline playing time forecast. Although it is generally a good indicator of the risk of injury, Attrition Rate will also capture seasons in which his playing time decreases due to poor performance or managerial decisions. '; xxxpxxxxx1161098296_25 = 'Batting average (hitters) or batting average allowed (pitchers).'; xxxpxxxxx1161098296_26 = 'Average number of pitches per start.'; xxxpxxxxx1161098296_27 = 'Average Pitcher Abuse Points per game started.'; xxxpxxxxx1161098296_28 = 'Singles or singles allowed.'; xxxpxxxxx1161098296_29 = 'Batting average; hits divided by at-bats.'; xxxpxxxxx1161098296_30 = 'Percentage of pitches thrown for balls.'; xxxpxxxxx1161098296_31 = 'The Baseline forecast, although it does not appear here, is a crucial intermediate step in creating a players forecast. The Baseline developed based on the players previous three seasons of performance. Both major league and (translated) minor league performances are considered.

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