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Happy Thanksgiving! Regularly Scheduled Articles Will Resume Monday, December 1

Articles Tagged WARP 

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03-17

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22

Baseball Therapy: The Viability of Burying a Bad Bat
by
Russell A. Carleton

09-19

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1

Reworking WARP: The Importance of a Living Replacement Level
by
Colin Wyers

09-11

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17

Reworking WARP: Why We Need Replacement Level
by
Colin Wyers

09-05

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22

Reworking WARP: The Uncertainty of Offense, Part Two
by
Colin Wyers

08-28

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35

Reworking WARP: The Overlooked Uncertainty of Offense
by
Colin Wyers

08-21

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57

Reworking WARP: The Series Ahead
by
Colin Wyers

07-12

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7

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 242: The All-No-Bang-for-Your-Buck Team
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

03-18

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36

Baseball Prospectus News: Replacement Level and 10-Year Projections
by
Joe Hamrahi

02-21

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20

In A Pickle: All-Stars Are Not All Stars
by
Jason Wojciechowski

02-20

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10

Pebble Hunting: Fixing the Holes, American League
by
Sam Miller

01-02

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2

Pebble Hunting: The Non-Pitching Value of Pitchers
by
Sam Miller

12-14

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21

BP Unfiltered: Which WAR(P) Are You?
by
Sam Miller

11-21

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4

Sobsequy: Why We Need Sabermetrics
by
Adam Sobsey

10-02

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10

Baseball Therapy: WARP for People Who Didn't Like Math Class
by
Russell A. Carleton

10-01

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8

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 53: Is the Second Wild Card Working?/Explaining Mainstream Screeds Against Advanced Stats
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

01-04

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11

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Class of 2012: The Catch-All
by
Jay Jaffe

01-02

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21

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Class of 2012: The Outfielders, Part I
by
Jay Jaffe

12-30

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41

Prospectus Hit and Run: Morris on the Ballot, Smith to Close
by
Jay Jaffe

12-19

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18

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Class of 2012: Middle Infielders
by
Jay Jaffe

11-28

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8

Collateral Damage: The Season in Injuries: AL East
by
Corey Dawkins and Ben Lindbergh

11-21

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0

Collateral Damage: The Season in Injuries: AL Central
by
Corey Dawkins and Ben Lindbergh

11-18

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6

Collateral Damage: The Season in Injuries: AL West
by
Corey Dawkins and Ben Lindbergh

11-14

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9

Collateral Damage: The Season in Injuries: NL East
by
Corey Dawkins and Ben Lindbergh

11-07

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7

Collateral Damage: The Season in Injuries: NL West
by
Corey Dawkins and Ben Lindbergh

08-15

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8

Prospectus Hit and Run: Fast Breakers
by
Jay Jaffe

08-04

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1

The Asian Equation: Finding Relief from NPB
by
Michael Street

07-22

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12

Divide and Conquer, AL East: The Replacements
by
Dustin Parkes

07-20

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22

The Lineup Card: The Top 13 Veterans Committee Selections That Weren't THAT Bad
by
Baseball Prospectus

07-18

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5

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Replacement-Level Killers, Part II
by
Jay Jaffe

07-12

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7

Painting the Black: Mid-season Heroes and Goats, Part 1
by
R.J. Anderson

07-08

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2

Divide and Conquer, AL West: First-Half Heroes
by
Joey Matschulat

07-07

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14

The Asian Equation: The Decline of NPB Pitching Imports
by
Michael Street

07-06

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15

Divide and Conquer, NL East: First-Half MVPs
by
Michael Jong

06-29

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4

Divide and Conquer, NL East: National Fever
by
Michael Jong

06-08

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5

The Asian Equation: The Futile Quest for the Next Ichiro
by
Michael Street

05-25

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8

Aging Hurlers
by
Michael Jong

05-19

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14

Overthinking It: The Over/Under-30 All-Stars
by
Ben Lindbergh

04-05

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2

Prospectus Hit and Run: NL Bullpen Blowout
by
Jay Jaffe

03-30

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11

On the Beat: No Excuses
by
John Perrotto

02-15

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35

Prospectus Hit List: Winning the Winter, NL Edition
by
Tommy Bennett

02-14

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7

Prospectus Hit List: Winning the Winter, AL Edition
by
Jay Jaffe

01-25

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17

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Vortices of Suck
by
Jay Jaffe

01-21

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15

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Replacement-level Killers
by
Jay Jaffe

01-04

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7

Prospectus Hit and Run: Class of 2011: The Right Fielders
by
Jay Jaffe

01-03

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12

Prospectus Hit and Run: Class of 2011: Don't Stop The Rock
by
Jay Jaffe

12-23

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16

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Class of 2011: Bagwell and Baggage
by
Jay Jaffe

12-20

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16

Prospectus Hit and Run: Class of 2011: Starting Pitchers
by
Jay Jaffe

11-10

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11

Prospectus Hit and Run: Examining The Expansion Era Hall of Fame Ballot
by
Jay Jaffe

10-01

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15

Prospectus Perspective: Achieving WARP Speed
by
Christina Kahrl

08-19

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17

Changing Speeds: The Golden Generation
by
Ken Funck

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November 21, 2012 5:00 am

Sobsequy: Why We Need Sabermetrics

4

Adam Sobsey

The Mike Trout-Miguel Cabrera debate reminds us why the sabermetric movement was what baseball needed.

The Ai Weiwei retrospective at the Hirshhorn in Washington isn’t about baseball, but it is indirectly about ways of seeing baseball differently. Well, really it’s about ways of seeing everything differently. So perhaps it’s appropriate here to revive the old saw that when your only tool is a hammer, everything tends to look like a nail. I left thinking about baseball—or rather, thinking about thinking about baseball. A dancer would probably leave thinking about choreography, a banker about the economy.

Ai Weiwei’s gift is in the way he makes you rethink your own tools, your own subject. The Hirshhorn retrospective is called According to What?, a title borrowed from a 1964 Jasper Johns painting. Ai situates himself in Johns’ pop-art tradition, which is perhaps why thoughts of baseball seem near to hand:  it may be a national pastime, but the game is also a pop icon as much as Mao is. Its solemnities are ripe for sentimentality and sentimentality’s (more) evil twin, kitsch, and ripe too for sheer, soulless moneymaking.

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A handy guide to understanding what WARP means without many numbers.

Over the weekend, there were plenty of end-of-season retrospectives from columnists who cast non-existent ballots for the MVPs, Cy Young award winners, and Rookies of the Year. As might be expected, many of the columnists brought up the WARP (Mike Trout) vs. Triple Crown (Miguel Cabrera) angle. There was a common theme running through the pieces that argued for Cabrera: WARP is a complicated and math-heavy stat, and because it is so complicated, how can we be sure that Trout was actually the better player?

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Ben and Sam discuss whether the second wild card has made the stretch run more exciting, then talk about why papers publish columns that criticize advanced stats without making an effort to understand them.

Ben and Sam discuss whether the second wild card has made the stretch run more exciting, then talk about why papers publish columns that criticize advanced stats without making an effort to understand them.

Episode 53: "Is the Second Wild Card Working?/Explaining Mainstream Screeds Against Advanced Stats"

Read the full article...

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January 4, 2012 12:18 am

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Class of 2012: The Catch-All

11

Jay Jaffe

Tim Raines has his case re-examined, and the remainder of the Hall ballot gets a look.

We all have our pet projects. With the graduations of Bert Blyleven and Ron Santo to the Hall of Fame, mine is now Tim Raines. During his 23-year major-league career, Raines combined the virtues of a keen batting eye, dazzling speed, and all-around athleticism with a cerebral approach that made him an electrifying performer and a dangerous offensive weapon. Yet in four years on the ballot, he's reached just 37.5 percent of the vote, exactly half of what he needs to reach Cooperstown.

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Bernie Williams burned it up with the Yankees during his career, but did the Puerto Rican do enough to blaze a trail to the Hall?

Before Derek Jeter, there was Bernie Williams. As the Yankees emerged from a barren stretch of 13 seasons without a trip to the playoffs from 1982-1994, and a particularly abysmal stretch of four straight losing seasons from 1989-1992, their young switch-hitting center fielder stood as a symbol for the franchise's resurgence. For too long, the Yankees had drafted poorly, traded away what homegrown talent they produced for veterans, and signed pricey free agents to fill the gaps as part of George Steinbrenner's eternal win-now directive. But with Steinbrenner banned by commissioner Fay Vincent and the Yankees' day-to-day baseball operations in the hands of Gene Michael, promising youngsters were allowed to develop unimpeded.

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December 30, 2011 3:23 am

Prospectus Hit and Run: Morris on the Ballot, Smith to Close

41

Jay Jaffe

Jay Jaffe and JAWS examine the starting pitchers on this year's Hall of Fame BBWAA ballot, starting with the inevitable Jack Morris.

After delivering the JAWS piece on first basemen earlier this week, I had planned to tackle the outfielders—Tim Raines, Bernie Williams et al—next. The sad news of Greg Spira's untimely passing on Wednesday presented me with a reason to change course, however. In the service of working on a chapter on Jack Morris’s Hall of Fame case for Extra Innings: More Baseball Between the Numbers in November, I had called upon the Internet Wayback Machine to unearth Greg's seminal research piece questioning whether Morris "pitched to the score." a piece that was published in Baseball Prospectus 1997, predating Morris’s arrival on the BBWAA ballot by a three years and Joe Sheehan's own outstanding Morris research by five years. I suggested to Dave Pease that we republish it on our site to run alongside yesterday’s article in tribute to our fallen colleague and friend, a fine example of his intellectual curiosity and dogged research efforts, particularly as the work dated to a time when Retrosheet was in its infancy and the relevant data not easily compiled. This piece is dedicated to his memory.

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December 19, 2011 1:45 am

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Class of 2012: Middle Infielders

18

Jay Jaffe

Only one middle infielder passes the revamped JAWS' standards for Hall of Fame induction.

The past year has been a great one for JAWS, the Hall of Fame evaluation system whose creation marked my first contribution to Baseball Prospectus back in 2004 (I didn't name it until the next go-round). In 2011, two overly qualified candidates for whom I've advocated for the better part of a decade were finally elected. In January, Bert Blyleven received 79.7 percen tof the Baseball Writers of America vote, becoming the first player ever to gain entry on his 14th ballot. In December, the late Ron Santo received 93.8 percent of the vote from the Golden Era committee, a bittersweet result given his passing just a year ago but a vindication of what we've known here for years, that he too was worthy of a bronze plaque.

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November 28, 2011 9:00 am

Collateral Damage: The Season in Injuries: AL East

8

Corey Dawkins and Ben Lindbergh

The AL East standings show that while money can't buy good health, good health can buy a playoff berth.

Division: American League East

WARP lost Divisional Ranking (Overall Ranks—Best to worst):

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November 21, 2011 9:00 am

Collateral Damage: The Season in Injuries: AL Central

0

Corey Dawkins and Ben Lindbergh

Most AL Central teams enjoyed good health in 2011, but one caught the big leagues' worst injury bug.

Division: American League Central

WARP lost Divisional Ranking (Overall Ranks—Best to worst):

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November 18, 2011 9:00 am

Collateral Damage: The Season in Injuries: AL West

6

Corey Dawkins and Ben Lindbergh

Having completed our recap of the senior circuit's health problems, we turn to the American League.

Division: American League West

WARP lost Divisional Ranking (Overall Ranks—Best to worst):

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November 14, 2011 9:00 am

Collateral Damage: The Season in Injuries: NL East

9

Corey Dawkins and Ben Lindbergh

The NL East was in bad shape in 2011, and the team that brought up the rear was exactly the one you'd think.

Division: National League East

WARP lost Divisional Ranking (Overall Ranks—Best to worst):

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November 7, 2011 9:00 am

Collateral Damage: The Season in Injuries: NL West

7

Corey Dawkins and Ben Lindbergh

The Diamondbacks owed much of their surprising success to staying healthy, but

The end of the year brings joy to some teams—here’s looking at you, Cardinals—but for most it’s an offseason of “coulda, shoulda, wouldas.” Many of those regrets have to do with injuries, which regularly rob teams of their full potential. Everyone understands that injuries affect how the season plays out, but the extent to which they impact the outcome is harder to grasp. This season saw races come down to the wire in both leagues, with the Cardinals continuing their improbable run through the playoffs to become World Series champs.  How much easier would that have been for them if Adam Wainwright had been healthy? Would a healthy Daisuke Matsuzaka have made the difference in the AL East for the Red Sox? These questions and more will be answered as we break down each division over the next few weeks, starting with the NL West, home of two of the five teams with the most disabled list transactions.

In order to determine what teams were hurt most by injuries this year, we needed to get down to the only thing that matters in the end: wins.  Lost salary doesn’t tell us how injuries affected a team in the standings, but the significance of the wins lost to a team due to injury is clear. We decided that calculating the WARP generated by each injured player on a per-plate-appearance basis from 2009-2011 and multiplying by the number of plate appearances his injuries cost him this season would give us what we were looking for.

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