CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

Happy Holidays! Regularly Scheduled Articles Will Resume Monday, December 29

Articles Tagged WARP 

Search BP Articles

All Blogs (including podcasts)

Active Columns

Authors

Article Types

Archives

03-17

comment icon

22

Baseball Therapy: The Viability of Burying a Bad Bat
by
Russell A. Carleton

09-19

comment icon

1

Reworking WARP: The Importance of a Living Replacement Level
by
Colin Wyers

09-11

comment icon

17

Reworking WARP: Why We Need Replacement Level
by
Colin Wyers

09-05

comment icon

22

Reworking WARP: The Uncertainty of Offense, Part Two
by
Colin Wyers

08-28

comment icon

35

Reworking WARP: The Overlooked Uncertainty of Offense
by
Colin Wyers

08-21

comment icon

57

Reworking WARP: The Series Ahead
by
Colin Wyers

07-12

comment icon

7

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 242: The All-No-Bang-for-Your-Buck Team
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

03-18

comment icon

36

Baseball Prospectus News: Replacement Level and 10-Year Projections
by
Joe Hamrahi

02-21

comment icon

20

In A Pickle: All-Stars Are Not All Stars
by
Jason Wojciechowski

02-20

comment icon

10

Pebble Hunting: Fixing the Holes, American League
by
Sam Miller

01-02

comment icon

2

Pebble Hunting: The Non-Pitching Value of Pitchers
by
Sam Miller

12-14

comment icon

21

BP Unfiltered: Which WAR(P) Are You?
by
Sam Miller

11-21

comment icon

4

Sobsequy: Why We Need Sabermetrics
by
Adam Sobsey

10-02

comment icon

10

Baseball Therapy: WARP for People Who Didn't Like Math Class
by
Russell A. Carleton

10-01

comment icon

8

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 53: Is the Second Wild Card Working?/Explaining Mainstream Screeds Against Advanced Stats
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

01-04

comment icon

11

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Class of 2012: The Catch-All
by
Jay Jaffe

01-02

comment icon

21

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Class of 2012: The Outfielders, Part I
by
Jay Jaffe

12-30

comment icon

41

Prospectus Hit and Run: Morris on the Ballot, Smith to Close
by
Jay Jaffe

12-19

comment icon

18

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Class of 2012: Middle Infielders
by
Jay Jaffe

11-28

comment icon

8

Collateral Damage: The Season in Injuries: AL East
by
Corey Dawkins and Ben Lindbergh

11-21

comment icon

0

Collateral Damage: The Season in Injuries: AL Central
by
Corey Dawkins and Ben Lindbergh

11-18

comment icon

6

Collateral Damage: The Season in Injuries: AL West
by
Corey Dawkins and Ben Lindbergh

11-14

comment icon

9

Collateral Damage: The Season in Injuries: NL East
by
Corey Dawkins and Ben Lindbergh

11-07

comment icon

7

Collateral Damage: The Season in Injuries: NL West
by
Corey Dawkins and Ben Lindbergh

08-15

comment icon

8

Prospectus Hit and Run: Fast Breakers
by
Jay Jaffe

08-04

comment icon

1

The Asian Equation: Finding Relief from NPB
by
Michael Street

07-22

comment icon

12

Divide and Conquer, AL East: The Replacements
by
Dustin Parkes

07-20

comment icon

22

The Lineup Card: The Top 13 Veterans Committee Selections That Weren't THAT Bad
by
Baseball Prospectus

07-18

comment icon

5

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Replacement-Level Killers, Part II
by
Jay Jaffe

07-12

comment icon

7

Painting the Black: Mid-season Heroes and Goats, Part 1
by
R.J. Anderson

07-08

comment icon

2

Divide and Conquer, AL West: First-Half Heroes
by
Joey Matschulat

07-07

comment icon

14

The Asian Equation: The Decline of NPB Pitching Imports
by
Michael Street

07-06

comment icon

15

Divide and Conquer, NL East: First-Half MVPs
by
Michael Jong

06-29

comment icon

4

Divide and Conquer, NL East: National Fever
by
Michael Jong

06-08

comment icon

5

The Asian Equation: The Futile Quest for the Next Ichiro
by
Michael Street

05-25

comment icon

8

Aging Hurlers
by
Michael Jong

05-19

comment icon

14

Overthinking It: The Over/Under-30 All-Stars
by
Ben Lindbergh

04-05

comment icon

2

Prospectus Hit and Run: NL Bullpen Blowout
by
Jay Jaffe

03-30

comment icon

11

On the Beat: No Excuses
by
John Perrotto

02-15

comment icon

35

Prospectus Hit List: Winning the Winter, NL Edition
by
Tommy Bennett

02-14

comment icon

7

Prospectus Hit List: Winning the Winter, AL Edition
by
Jay Jaffe

01-25

comment icon

17

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Vortices of Suck
by
Jay Jaffe

01-21

comment icon

15

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Replacement-level Killers
by
Jay Jaffe

01-04

comment icon

7

Prospectus Hit and Run: Class of 2011: The Right Fielders
by
Jay Jaffe

01-03

comment icon

12

Prospectus Hit and Run: Class of 2011: Don't Stop The Rock
by
Jay Jaffe

12-23

comment icon

16

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Class of 2011: Bagwell and Baggage
by
Jay Jaffe

12-20

comment icon

16

Prospectus Hit and Run: Class of 2011: Starting Pitchers
by
Jay Jaffe

11-10

comment icon

11

Prospectus Hit and Run: Examining The Expansion Era Hall of Fame Ballot
by
Jay Jaffe

10-01

comment icon

15

Prospectus Perspective: Achieving WARP Speed
by
Christina Kahrl

08-19

comment icon

17

Changing Speeds: The Golden Generation
by
Ken Funck

<< Previous Tag Entries No More Tag Entries

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

March 17, 2014 6:00 am

Baseball Therapy: The Viability of Burying a Bad Bat

22

Russell A. Carleton

Or, would the Yankees be better off starting Derek Jeter or Brendan Ryan at shortstop?

Team captain and 39-year-old farewell tour participant Derek Jeter is currently the starting shortstop for the New York Yankees. That is the way of things and has been since I was in high school. But the Yankees also have Brendan Ryan on their roster. Ryan is a noted defensive wizard while Jeter is [must…not…make…Jeter fielding joke]. However, Ryan “hit” only .197/.255/.273 last year in 349 plate appearances. Is there a case to be made for Ryan as the starting shortstop based on his defensive prowess? Keep in mind that the Yankees could bury Ryan in the batting order to limit his exposure, move the ever-under-appreciated Brett Gardner up to the two-spot, pinch hit for Ryan late in the game, and enjoy that sweet glove for eight innings a night. Is that enough to overtake De-rek Je-ter?

The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers.

Not a subscriber?

Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web.


Cancel anytime.


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

Why and how replacement level has shifted over time.

Last week, we talked about what replacement level is, and why we need it. Now let’s talk about who replacements are, and how to find them.

What we uncovered last time is that, rather than being some wholly arbitrary baseline concocted by evil sabermetric geniuses, replacement level (and the consequences of replacement level-based analysis) in fact grow out of something fundamental to the game: the distribution of talent in baseball, and the limited number of roster spots available. So the question becomes, how do we measure the distribution of talent? What are some things we need to make sure we’re capturing?

Read the full article...

Or why none of the alternatives to replacement level works as well.

Last week, we talked about different ways to measure offensive performance. Let’s talk some about baselines. The past few weeks have had a lot of math; this time I want to step back and talk some theory (although we’ll have a fair amount of math as well.)

What’s funny is that sabermetrics is regarded as being about math first, when really the heart of the thing is theory. I and my fellow travelers have been accused of “ruining” the game with numbers. But from its earliest days, the spread of baseball was as much about newsprint filled with columns of numbers in agate type as it was about the stories written about the game. Numbers have always had an incredible power to tell us about the game of baseball, and that was as true in 1913 as it is in 2013. Scratch any columnist who talks about how stats are ruining the game and you can find a voluminous knowledge of the history of the game as told in numbers, of the records people hold and the records people haven’t managed to break.

Read the full article...

How we can acknowledge uncertainty while minimizing it as much as possible.

Last week, we talked a bit about measuring the uncertainty in our estimates of offense. I hinted at having a few additional ideas on quantifying the uncertainty involved. Let’s examine two different routes we could take, both of which would offer less uncertainty than what we quantified last week.

When we did our estimates of uncertainty last week, we compared the linear weights value of an event to the actual change in run expectancy, given the base-out states before and after the event. What we can do instead is prepare linear weights values by base-out state and find the standard error of those instead. Looking at official events:

Read the full article...

How accurate can we be when comparing hitters' performance?

Previous Installments of Reworking WARP
The Series Ahead [8/21]

When I started working on a series about revising WARP, I didn’t expect to have much to say on the subject of offense. Measuring offense is probably the least controversial part of modern sabermetrics. So why start here? I have a few reasons:


Read the full article...

What we'll be doing with WARP in the coming weeks, and why.

The hardest part of explaining sabermetrics to someone who’s versed in traditional baseball stats is explaining that they’re different not just in degree, but also in kind. The definition of an RBI, for instance, hasn’t changed since it was made an official statistic in 1920. The stats created by sabermetricians are much more prone to revision. Some look at this as a bug, because they view sabermetrics only as potentially better versions of traditional stats.

But sabermetrics isn’t ever a finished product. (This is not, in fact, a bad thing.) So instead of expecting our stats to calcify, we should be expecting them to grow and change as we develop the ideas beneath them. So it is with WARP, which has undergone any number of changes over the years. And now we’re going to be changing WARP again. But we’re going to be throwing open the doors and letting you watch us while we work. So we’re kicking off a series of articles, running each Wednesday, where we’ll take you inside what we’re doing. There’ll be a lot of math, but also a lot of discussion about what WARP is trying to measure and the philosophy behind various choices.

Read the full article...

Ben and Sam draft the worst player contracts to see who can spend the most money for the least production.

Read the full article...

A few announcements about fixes for and changes to our statistical offerings.

From time to time—if not at all times—organizations must examine their own operations and ask some difficult questions.

The answers often reveal a range of things done right and things done wrong. Healthy organizations can handle those answers in more than one way—there are many routes to success, but even more to failure—but one hallmark of organizational integrity, to borrow from James Collins, is looking in the mirror when assigning blame and out the window when giving praise.

Read the full article...

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

February 21, 2013 5:00 am

In A Pickle: All-Stars Are Not All Stars

20

Jason Wojciechowski

Jason looks at the worst players, by career WARP, to make multiple trips to the All-Star Game.

Last week, we looked at players who racked up large career WARP figures but for one reason or another (underappreciation, the league being incredibly stocked at their position, steady goodness rather than flashes of greatness) didn't make very many All-Star teams. This week, having sufficiently buried the lede, it's time to look at the players who inspired this investigation in the first place: the very worst players to make multiple All-Star Games. Caveats and notes:

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

February 20, 2013 5:00 am

Pebble Hunting: Fixing the Holes, American League

10

Sam Miller

Each AL team had a weakest position last season. Those positions aren't so weak anymore.

Every team is worse at one position than it is at the other positions. At the end of the season, that position is a good one to upgrade. Most teams upgraded at that position this offseason. And so here is a review of where each team was worst in 2012, and what they’ve done to get better, using our invaluable year-to-date display and our invaluable visual depth charts.

Angels: Catcher
Extent of despair: 0.6 WARP
Primary delinquent: Bobby Wilson (-0.3)
Projected for 2013: 2.6 WARP
For the third year in a row, the Angels attempted to solve their dysfunctions at catcher by sending a catcher to Canada. Wilson hit .202/.267/.292 in his final two years as an Angel; Jeff Mathis hit .184/.222/.268 in his. Dean Chance hit .082/.120/.087 as an Angel. Sorry to shift this conversation, but Dean Chance was notably bad at hitting, and being a pitcher is no excuse. He had 662 official at-bats as a big leaguer and struck out 420 times, with two extra-base hits (both doubles). In 496 career at-bats against right-handers, he hit .060/.105/.060. To make his career line match the OBP and SLG of Bobby Wilson’s worst season, Dean Chance would have to homer in 39 consecutive at-bats, and then walk in 90 consecutive at-bats.





The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

Is it worth paying certain pitchers more for what they do when they're not on the mound?

I was talking to a friend the other day who pointed out that, had Johnny Cueto not been knocked out in the first game, and had not Mike Leake been the Reds' uninspiring only option to replace him, the Giants probably wouldn’t have won the NLDS or, consequently, the World Series. That seems reasonable:

Read the full article...

Sometimes, the player-value models disagree, and you get to make a choice. Make that choice.

Much, perhaps too much, is made of the multiple models existent that attempt to characterize a player's value relative to replacement level. "A man with one watch always knows the time, while a man with two watches can never be sure," is an expression. Most of the time, though, WAR, WARP, and WAR are close allies. How good is Joey Votto? you might ask. And the answers you get: 

Read the full article...

<< Previous Tag Entries No More Tag Entries