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Articles Tagged Vlad Guerrero 

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Will the Orioles be impaled on the spike of their own pressing ambitions?

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January 24, 2011 12:06 pm

Free Agent Bargain Bin: Outfielders

12

Dan Wade

Taking a peek at the bare cupboard that is the remaining free-agent outfielders.

Outfield went from a position of reasonable depth to a veritable wasteland in under a week. Andruw Jones, Johnny Damon, and Manny Ramirez—outfielder emeritus—all came off the board. There are a few players left who look primed to provide solid value, but if the outfield is a perceived spot of weakness for a team, acting soon would be virtuous. Outside of the five players listed here, the options turn rancid quickly.

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November 3, 2010 12:00 pm

World Series Prospectus: Series Notebook

14

Jay Jaffe

Wrapping up the Fall Classic with some quick hits about the Giants and Rangers.

The 2010 World Series is in the books with the Giants having won their first world championship since 1954, back when they called Upper Manhattan's Polo Grounds home and no major-league team played ball west of the Mississippi River or south of the Ohio River. While the series certainly provided a handful of memorable moments that shone the spotlight on deserving superstars, unlikely heroes, and freaks with ill-considered beards, this fall classic didn't exactly fall into the “classic” category. For the sixth time in the past seven years and the ninth time in a baker's dozen, the series was over before a Game Six could be played. The team that scored first won every game after Game One, and in fact not a single lead changed hands after the fifth inning in any game. While the match-up may have meant the world to the long-suffering fans of both the Giants and the Rangers (who'd never even won a playoff series before this fall), to those of us without a dog in the hunt, it was notable mostly as the last oasis of baseball for the next three-and-a-half months.

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Since his debut in 1996, Vladimir Guerrero has been one of the most exciting players in baseball - possessing the ability to hit for a high average with lots of power and wielding a breathtaking throwing arm. Despite an approach at the plate that can generously be described as not really what statistical analysts recommend, Guerrero has raked for over a decade. With his body slowly breaking down and the revelation that he's a year older than previously believed, we may be nearing the end of the run for Vlad the Impaler. Let's take a look back at his career and consider where it may be headed.

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Twelve BP authors kick off the new season with their 2005 AL predictions.

Our authors, august worthies every one, wrap up the offseason with their predictions for 2005. Come Sunday, we will no longer need the future tense, as we'll have actual baseball to discuss.

In part one of this two-part series, we focus on the American League, concentrating on the division standings and the major player awards (MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year). Tomorrow we'll conclude with the National League predictions, along with the staff picks for the World Series representatives.

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Welcome all to the results of the Baseball Prospectus Mid-Season Awards. The points system is 10-7-5-3-1 for the MVP and Cy Young Awards, and 5-3-1 for the Rookie Awards. BP authors' picks, with all-too-clever comments, are included here, below the awards standings. Hitters: Ballots, Points (1st Place Votes), (Avg/OBP/SLG/RARP/VORP) Pitchers: Ballots, Points (1st Place Votes), (ERA, IP, SNWAR or ARP, VORP)

Welcome all to the results of the Baseball Prospectus Mid-Season Awards.

The points system is 10-7-5-3-1 for the MVP and Cy Young Awards, and 5-3-1 for the Rookie Awards. BP authors' picks, with all-too-clever comments, are included here, below the awards standings.

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February 6, 2004 12:00 am

The Sabean Way

0

Michael Wolverton

Brian Sabean has brought a fair amount of criticism on himself with his low-key approach to this off-season, creating the world's largest chapter of the lunatic fringe in the process. So it's no surprise that he faced his share of skeptical questions from Giants fans during his live chat on mlb.com earlier this week. But it was his answer to a fairly innocuous question that raised the most eyebrows among the "fringers": Q: Did you ever make an offer for Vladimir Guerrero? Sabean: In a word: No. If we had signed Guerrero or [Gary] Sheffield, we would have been without [Jim] Brower, [Scott] Eyre, [Matt] Herges, [Dustin] Hermanson, [Brett] Tomko, [A.J.] Pierzynski, [Pedro] Feliz, [J.T.] Snow, [Jeffrey] Hammonds, [Dustan] Mohr and [Michael] Tucker--obviously not being able to field a competitive team, especially from an experience standpoint, given our level of spending.

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January 12, 2004 12:00 am

Prospectus Today: Back in the Saddle

0

Joe Sheehan

With my contributions to Baseball Prospectus 2004 safely behind me, it's time to get back to filling this space with observations and analysis. Or attempts at same. I've missed writing my column, and while there's no way I'll get completely caught up on the events of the last two months, I can have fun trying. I'm not a resolutions guy, but I am making two commitments for 2004: to emphasize a more quantitative viewpoint in my analysis, and to spend more time answering reader mail. The former I'll just have to work on every time I write, but the latter has now been dedicated a "Task" in Outlook. Nothing in my life is real until Outlook starts nagging me about it, so hopefully that will help me be better about a weak spot in my game the last few years. I can't answer all my e-mail, but I can get to more of it than I have been. The big news over the weekend was that Vladimir Guerrero surprised everyone by signing with the Angels. No one saw this coming; the Angels had been rumored to be interested earlier this winter, but had faded into the background after signing Jose Guillen in December. Over the last week, the Mets and Orioles had been engaged in a low-scale bidding war for Guerrero, a weird situation in which the goal seemed to be to guarantee the fewest years and the lowest amount of money while showing the least interest. Throw in raging insecurity and a lousy sense of fashion and you'd have the way women "pursued" me in college. It was this atmosphere that allowed Moreno and the Angels to come in and pick up a Hall of Fame talent at a price that almost seems like a typo.

Is this thing on?

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Jonah Keri has ably analyzed the Colon trade and its ridiculousness for the Expos. I want to focus on the deal as an indicator of the shadiness and shame implied by the league's ownership of the Expos.

Jonah Keri has ably analyzed the Colon trade and its ridiculousness for the Expos. I want to focus on the deal as an indicator of the shadiness and shame implied by the league's ownership of the Expos.

First, some background. For better and for worse, Major League Baseball is a legal cartel. As such, it may be thought of as a sort of open, friendly conspiracy (it conspires to keep any competing league from offering top-level baseball in North America). Nothing wrong with that in itself -- we happily put up with cartels in most of our major sports, and in other areas of life as well. And as long as I the consumer understand the arrangement, benefit from it, and have some kind of recourse to get out from under it, what's the problem? No one makes me spend money on MLB or the NFL. If I have a beef with one of these cartels, I can always boycott their sponsors, or push for new laws to rein them in, or just go to Longhorn games instead. So far, so good.

But for their own long-term health, sports leagues must convince their consumers that they field a fair product, or else the entire attraction of honest competition is ruined. By this token, baseball's fans must be able to believe that MLB holds itself in check by various means, whether in the structure of the amateur draft, or in a player's arbitration calendar, or in the rules of the waiver wire. These rules (and many others) allow for open explanations of events: The Red Sox signed Johnny Damon fair and square under the free agency rules; the Yankees got stuck with Jose Canseco's contract because the Rays really were looking to unload him via waivers; there's only so long the Expos can hold onto Vlad Guerrero thanks to his free-agency calendar. And so on.

Whether we like an individual piece of news or not, we have reason to believe that matters were handled out in the open. The league's internal rules are made even more potent in this regard since they're monitored by a powerful player's union and, at least in theory, by an independent press.

Onto the problem at hand. The very nature of the league's ownership of the Expos raises the specter of misconduct - of a violation of consumers' trust - because it subverts this system of checks. Because the league now controls the Expos' players, this specter extends not just to Expos fans, but to fans of other teams (like the Red Sox), and to followers of the league as a whole.

Protestations of innocence from Selig & Co. are irrelevant. Maybe the Commissioner does have firewalls in place such that he holds no sway on the Expos' day-to-day operations. It doesn't matter. Again, it is the very nature of the arrangement that opens the way for back-channel, conspiratorial explanations for events. Indeed, given the current arrangement, it actually becomes logical to entertain such notions.

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Scot Hughes analyzes the rest of Montreal's roster, which will probably be filled with players who are not yet arbitration-eligible.

Part One

The rest of the roster will probably be filled with players who are not yet arbitration-eligible. Taking into account the increase in minimum salary and the players available to the Expos, the other 14 spots will be filled with guys like Tomo Ohka, Scott Stewart, T.J. Tucker, Brad Wilkerson, Jose Macias, Brian Schneider, Endy Chavez, Jim Brower and possibly an inexpensive veteran or two (like Andres Galarraga, Troy O'Leary and Wil Cordero in 2002). Figure an average salary of $0.5M or so for each of the remaining 14 roster spots, and that's $7M more, for a total of $56M.

So Minaya has a likely budget of $40M, and a projected payroll of $56M or so. What does he do?

Minaya has to cut about $16M in payroll. There are some salaries on the roster that could be cut without hurting the on-field product all that much. Unfortunately, Fernando Tatis is the biggest albatross on the Expos payroll, but I think his $6M is basically untradeable, at least not without the Expos paying a big chunk of his salary or accepting an equally bad contract in return. But we'll give Minaya the benefit of the doubt, and assume he can unload Tatis and half of his contract (but doesn't acquire anything of value in return). $3M in savings.

The Expos also have reasonably good depth in terms of candidates for the back end of the rotation and the bullpen (Sun Woo Kim, Zach Day, Matt Blank, Dickey Gonzalez, Dan Smith, Britt Reames, etc). Given that, it makes sense that they showed Masato Yoshii the door, and they'll probably do the same with Matt Herges. $4M more in savings.

At this point, the easy, relatively painless cuts are gone, and Minaya still has to clear $9M in payroll. He's got 2 options at this point:

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Barry Bonds continued his domination of Internet NL Player of the Year voting by winning the IBA NL Player of the Year for the third straight year and the sixth time overall. Bonds has finished at least third in Internet NL Player of the Year voting after every season except 1999, when he was limited to less than 450 plate appearances by an injury.

Barry Bonds continued his domination of Internet NL Player of the Year voting by winning the IBA NL Player of the Year for the third straight year and the sixth time overall. Bonds has finished at least third in Internet NL Player of the Year voting after every season except 1999, when he was limited to less than 450 plate appearances by an injury. Vlad Guerrero, who had finished in the top 20 each of the last four years, finished second despite playing for the seemingly doomed Expos. Randy Johnson, who finished in third place, was the highest ranking pitcher in Internet NL Player of the Year voting since Greg Maddux won the award in 1995. Albert Pujols, who finished fourth after his 2001 rookie campaign, moved up a notch to third in 2002 and was the only everyday player from a division winner to finish in the top ten.

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