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June 14, 2012 5:00 am

Resident Fantasy Genius: Ignoring the Trend Line

7

Derek Carty

It is always tempting to think a year-by-year trend will continue, but regression is more powerful than momentum.

If you missed it, I filled a guest spot on the Fantasy Baseball Roundtable Radio show last night alongside industry friends and show regulars Patrick DiCaprio, Mike Podhorzer, and Greg Marta.  We talked mostly about buy-high and sell-low players—you can listen to the whole show here, if you’re interested—but there was one more theoretical topic that came up in passing which I found interesting but didn’t have a chance to jump into: trend analysis.

When discussing “buy high” third basemen, Pat mentioned how he was questioning the utility of trend analysis, specifically in regard to Hanley Ramirez.  Despite a four-year trend of declining power, Hanley has bounced back this year to a level that falls between his 2008 and 2009 seasons:

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Talking arbitration with long-time baseball arbitrator, professor, and author Roger Abrams.

While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive (and mostly free) online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audiencesend us your suggestion.

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September 26, 2011 10:36 am

Fantasy Beat: Preparing for Next Season

2

Jason Collette

Some tips on how to approach the off-season and prepare for 2012 drafts.

Most of you can relate to 20 of the 30 baseball teams that are just ready for the season to end so you can lick your wounds and figure out where it all went wrong. The fun part about the off-season is tossing around the blame for what derailed a team that looked great team on paper leaving the draft in March since most of us leave the draft table thinking we have a great team.

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Revisiting historical HBP rates in the wake of Alex Avila's plunking by Jered Weaver's hand.

While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive (and mostly free) online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audiencesend us your suggestion.

As Jered Weaver prepares to serve his six-game suspension, take in some trends in HBP rates over time, which originally ran as a "Schrodinger's Bat" column on May 4, 2006.

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Before you yell at the umpire, consider making a few adjustments to your dataset.

After the last two postseasons, most baseball fans are familiar with the strike zone location graphic known as PitchTrax. Here’s an example from Game One of the 2010 American League Championship Series:

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March 28, 2010 12:30 pm

Prospectus Q&A: Logan White, Part 1

7

David Laurila

A conversation about the art of scouting and drafting, and the mysteries of "The Dodger Way."

Few teams draft as well as the Dodgers, and even fewer do so with a data-driven approach that melds risk aversion with a gunslinger’s bravado. Logan White and company aren’t shy about taking high school pitchers in the first round, nor are they unwilling to take a calculated gamble that a highly-prized sleeper will fall into their laps in a later round. The results have been impressive, with the likes of Clayton Kershaw, Matt Kemp, James Loney, and Russell Martin already in Dodger blue, and Dee Gordon, Chris Withrow, and Ethan Martin soon to follow. White, the club’s assistant general manager in charge of scouting, sat down with Baseball Prospectus to talk about his approach to the amateur draft and why "The Dodgers Way" has been so successful.

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April 25, 2008 12:00 am

Fantasy Focus: April Stolen Base Report

0

Jeff Erickson

The scoop on which early stolen base leaders will keep up their thievery all season and which offer false promise.

In most fantasy leagues, saves and stolen bases are one-category events that often cost more than they're worth. Thus, we spend a lot of time studying the trends in each category to find cheap sources of both, and to avoid the fools' gold tempting an unsuspecting fantasy owner. More attention often goes to the closers, and we'll be addressing them in future columns, but stolen bases deserve their own focus. They aren't quite as scarce as they were just two years ago; there were over 2,900 total stolen bases in major league baseball in 2007, nearly 400 higher than in 2005. Still, they're rare enough to rate an early look. Keep in mind the usual small sample size caveats that come with any April analysis.

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April 13, 2008 12:00 am

Prospectus Q&A: Roger Abrams

0

David Laurila

Talking arbitration with long-time baseball arbitrator, professor, and author, Roger Abrams.

The Richardson Professor of Law at Northeastern University School of Law, Roger Abrams has been a baseball salary arbitrator since 1986. A former scholar-in-residence at the Baseball Hall of Fame, Abrams is the author of four books, including Legal Bases: Baseball and the Law, and Money Pitch: Baseball Free Agency and Salary Arbitration. David talked to Abrams about the baseball arbitration process, including who is eligible, what can and cannot be argued at a hearing, and why arbitration works.

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An in-depth discussion about mechanics with the motion analysis coordinator and coach of the National Pitching Association.

Pitching is both an art and a science, and from youth leagues to the big leagues, so is the challenge of keeping pitchers healthy. The National Pitching Association (NPA) is on the cutting edge of research and instruction on all three fronts, and many of their concepts are shared in their forthcoming book, Arm Action, Arm Path, and the Perfect Pitch: a Science-Based Guide to Pitching Health and Performance. David talked to the NPA's motion analysis coordinator and coach, Doug Thorburn.

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June 5, 2006 12:00 am

Doctoring The Numbers: The Draft, Part 12

0

Rany Jazayerli

Rany closes out his epic series, identifying the new inefficiency in the market before tomorrow's Rule 4 draft.

Well, there's no reason to think that change suddenly ground to a halt in 1999, and the data from a decade ago may hold little bearing on the decisions that will be made next Tuesday.

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May 11, 2006 12:00 am

Schrodinger's Bat: Strike Zones, Trilobites, and a Vicious Cycle

0

Dan Fox

To stick with the theme, you might say that Dan's column on historic HBP rates engendered a massive retaliatory response from readers.

"If they knocked two of our guys down, I'd get four. You have to protect your hitters."
--

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May 4, 2006 12:00 am

Schrodinger's Bat: Beautiful Theories and Ugly Facts

0

Dan Fox

Dan takes a look at historical HBP rates.

“The great tragedy of Science--the slaying of a beautiful hypothesis by an ugly fact.”
--British biologist Thomas H. Huxley (1825-1895)


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