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Seven simple rules to make your Hot Stove trade rumors more realistic.

While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive (and mostly free) online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audience, send us your suggestion.

Matt Swartz offered a handy rumormongering primer in the piece reprinted below, which was originally published as an "Ahead in the Count" column on November 17, 2009.

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Ben and Sam break down three trade rumors that surfaced over the weekend.



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December 4, 2012 5:00 am

Out of Left Field: Josh Hamilton and Talking

12

Matthew Kory

When you hear a team is talking to Josh Hamilton this month, what does it mean?

Josh Hamilton is one of the big storylines of the offseason. Where will he end up? Will he sign with [team x]? Maybe! Maybe not! Possibly maybe not! That’s about the best we can say on the matter. Maybe someone knows, possibly, but probably not.

I just used the words “maybe” and “possibly” a total of six times. That sums things up. We know why. Hamilton’s is one of the oddest free agent cases in recent memory. A supremely talented yet supremely flawed player, he’s old but not that old, appears excellent defensively but he’s possibly poor at defense. Then there’s the near unprecedented (for free agent baseball players) matter of his personal problems. It adds up to a player who could end up just about anywhere.

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November 20, 2012 9:30 am

Overthinking It: Why Justin Upton is Always About to Be Traded

6

Ben Lindbergh

It's a lot of fun to talk about Justin Upton being traded, which might be why reporters talk about it so much, and it might be why Kevin Towers talks about it so much.

At this point, it sort of seems as though Justin Upton has always been available, as if he was born on the trading block or at least debuted there before he made the majors. Upton trade rumors are as much an annual offseason ritual as Scott Boras’ binders, debates about Aroldis Chapman’s role, or worries about whether the Marlins are bad for baseball. He hasn’t actually been traded yet, not even once, but we’ve grown used to Upton existing in a perpetual state of about-to-be-dealt.

Difficult as it might be to believe, it’s been less than 2 ½ years since Upton was at the opposite end of the availability spectrum: untouchable. On March 3, 2010, the Diamondbacks signed Upton to a six-year, $51.25 million extension that runs through 2015. Just over three months later, on June 13, Nick Cafardo included this in the notes section of his column for the Boston Globe:

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Five scenarios in which it might make sense for Jeffrey Loria to finish the job and trade his team's best remaining asset.

How you think when you lose determines how long it will be until you win.
G. K. Chesterton

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August 1, 2012 5:00 am

Transaction Analysis: Trade Deadline Non-Transaction Analysis

9

Colin Wyers

Some deadline deals that were rumored to have been discussed didn't end up happening. Colin attempts to figure out why each one fizzled.

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The Phillies reportedly offered the Reds a lopsided deal, and the Reds reportedly rejected it.

From a recent article by long-time ​Cincinnati Enquirer​ columnist Paul Daughterty:

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July 5, 2012 5:00 am

Resident Fantasy Genius: Thome Trade Tests AL-Only Managers

0

Derek Carty

How much you bid on Jim Thome this week says a lot about the league you're in.

The calendar has flipped to July, and that means we’ve reached the point of the season when players will start getting traded and -- piquing the interest of those who play in AL- and NL-only leagues -- switching circuits.  The trade of Jim Thome to the Orioles this weekend marked the first of these trades and forced fantasy owners to make some interesting decisions when it came time to claim players.  This year, I’m playing in two AL-only leagues, but despite this bit of uniformity, the decision-making that went into my Thome bids was quite different between them.

My two AL-only leagues are the CBS Analysts Expert League and the DraftDay Experts League (formerly CardRunners).  In DraftDay, owners begin with a FAAB budget of $260, FAAB can be traded, and players from the National League can be claimed and stashed based on speculation that they might be traded to the AL.  In CBS, owners get a fixed budget of $100 dollars, FAAB cannot be traded, and NL players cannot be claimed.

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July 3, 2012 5:00 am

What the Contenders Need

25

Bradley Ankrom, Jeff Euston and Kevin Goldstein

What do the Nationals, Braves, and Mets need heading into the deadline, and where might they find it?

With a little less than a month to go until the non-waiver trading deadline, talks between teams are heating up. In a seven-part series, several BP authors will be covering the needs, potential fits, and more for the contenders in each division, as well as a rundown of the top 10 player trade targets. Today, we take a look at the NL East.

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July 2, 2012 5:00 am

Pebble Hunting: Non-Transaction Analysis: New-Money Ball

13

Sam Miller

The Astros and Dodgers agreed to a trade, but Carlos Lee wasn't interested. We can still talk about this non-trade, because this non-trade is still interesting.

Los Angeles Dodgers
Did not acquire 1B-R Carlos Lee and cash for RHP Garrett Gould. [6/30]

***


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What do the White Sox, Tigers, and Indians need heading into the deadline, and where might they find it?

With a little less than a month to go until the non-waiver trading deadline, talks between teams are heating up. In a seven-part series, several BP authors will be covering the needs, potential fits, and more for the contenders in each division, as well as a rundown of the top 10 player trade targets. Today, we take a look at the AL Central.

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The Orioles are, surprisingly, in a pennant race, and now Jim Thome is in a pennant race.

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