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Articles Tagged Tout Wars 

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04-11

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2

Expert FAAB Review: Week 2
by
Mike Gianella

04-06

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3

Fantasy Freestyle: The PFM and The Model Portfolio
by
Mike Gianella

03-30

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3

Expert League Auction Recap: Tout Wars General Impressions
by
Mike Gianella

03-28

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6

Expert League Auction Recap: 2017 Tout Wars Mixed
by
Bret Sayre

03-28

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5

Expert League Auction Recap: Tout Wars National League
by
Mike Gianella

09-30

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1

Expert League Recap
by
Mike Gianella

03-29

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4

Fantasy Freestyle: Distributing Dollars
by
Mike Gianella

03-23

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8

Expert League Auction Recap: Tout Wars NL-Only
by
Mike Gianella

03-22

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0

Expert League Auction Recap: Tout Wars: General Impressions
by
Mike Gianella

03-21

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6

Expert League Auction Recap: Tout Wars Mixed
by
Bret Sayre

10-06

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4

Expert League Recap
by
Mike Gianella and Bret Sayre

10-05

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8

Expert League Recap
by
Mike Gianella

09-22

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2

Tout Wars X
by
Bret Sayre

07-07

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4

Expert FAAB Review: Week 14
by
Mike Gianella

06-30

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0

Expert FAAB Review: Week 13
by
Mike Gianella

06-23

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2

Expert FAAB Review: Week 12
by
Mike Gianella

05-04

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5

Tout Wars X
by
Bret Sayre

03-26

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4

Expert League Auction Recap: Tout Wars: General Impressions
by
Mike Gianella

03-24

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9

Expert League Auction Recap: National League Tout Wars
by
Mike Gianella

02-06

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3

Fantasy Freestyle: PFM vs. the 'Experts,' Part Two (Pitchers)
by
Mike Gianella

01-30

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15

Fantasy Freestyle: PFM vs. the 'Experts,' Part One (Hitters)
by
Mike Gianella

09-29

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2

Fantasy Freestyle: 2014 Expert-League Recaps
by
Mike Gianella

05-12

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0

Fantasy Freestyle: Expert League Assessment: First Quarter
by
Mike Gianella

03-27

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1

Tout Wars Recap
by
Mike Gianella

03-25

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17

Tout Wars Recap
by
Mike Gianella

03-13

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5

Sporer Report: My Tout Wars Team, Part One
by
Paul Sporer

04-17

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7

Fantasy Freestyle: Big Spending in FAAB Leagues
by
Mike Gianella

03-29

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14

Fantasy Freestyle: NL Tout Wars Auction Review
by
Mike Gianella

03-27

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8

Fantasy Freestyle: Expert-League Auction Comparison
by
Jason Collette

03-26

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19

Fantasy Auction Values: Sixth Edition, March 26
by
Mike Gianella

08-16

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11

Resident Fantasy Genius: A Summer Success Story
by
Derek Carty

06-07

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1

Resident Fantasy Genius: Getting Into the Swingman
by
Derek Carty

04-02

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7

Resident Fantasy Genius: Common Players on my 2012 Fantasy Teams
by
Derek Carty

03-26

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15

Resident Fantasy Genius: Tout Wars and LABR NL Drafts
by
Derek Carty

02-09

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20

Resident Fantasy Genius: Enter Swingman
by
Derek Carty

01-03

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7

Fantasy Beat: Categories to Target on Draft Day
by
Jason Collette

07-14

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1

Resident Fantasy Genius: Mixed-League Mayhem
by
Derek Carty

07-01

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7

Fantasy Beat: Tout Wars Halfway Point Update
by
Jason Collette

03-25

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0

Prospectus Toolbox: Tout Wars, Redux
by
Derek Jacques

03-21

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0

BP Does Tout Wars
by
Jonah Keri and Nate Silver

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Mark Reynolds, Kyle Freeland, Stephen Drew and Jeff Mathis (!?) getting lots of action.

Welcome back to The FAAB Review, the weekly series that looks at fantasy free-agent bidding in expert leagues to help you, the Baseball Prospectus reader, with your fantasy baseball bidding needs. Every week, I closely scrutinize the expert free agent bids in LABR Mixed, Tout Wars NL, and LABR AL.

As a reminder, LABR uses a $100 budget with $1 minimum bids, while Tout Wars uses a $1,000 budget with $0 minimum bids. LABR and Tout Wars use a bidding deadline of Sunday at midnight ET for all FAAB claims. Any statistics mentioned in this article are through the previous Sunday’s games.

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April 6, 2017 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: The PFM and The Model Portfolio

3

Mike Gianella

Applying PFM valuations to the My Model Portfolio exercise and testing the results against mixed Tout Wars teams.

Every March, at least a few readers ask me “Why don’t you just use the PFM instead of your bids, Mike?”

Over the years, I have answered this question a few different ways. But today I thought I’d take a different approach. Inspired by a reader question last month, I decided to take the Player Forecast Manager's valuations for a 15-team mixed league and apply them to Baseball Prospectus’ My Model Portfolio exercise from March. As a reminder, this is what our authors did in that series.

In the “My Model Portfolio” series, the fantasy staff will create its own team within a $260 auction budget using Mike Gianella’s latest mixed-league Bid Limits for 2017. The scoring is 5x5 standard roto. The roster being constructed includes: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, 5 OF, 2 UTIL, and 9 P.

The Process
In this case, the process is simple. I took my mixed-league bids, took the valuations the PFM spit out for a 15-team league, and posted the results below. I started by using the 23 players who had the biggest differential between the PFM valuations and my bid limits, and kept adding players with less of a differential by position until I reached $260 in salary. As a reminder, every “winning” bid below equals my published bid limits plus one. One-dollar players on my team are those who were not listed in my bid limits.

The only change I made to this exercise is that I added a second catcher to the team and removed the second utility player, since my bids are designed to mirror the Tout Wars mixed-auction format. At the end of the season, I want to test this team not against the model portfolio teams but rather the mixed Tout Wars teams.

The Offense

Position

Player

Bid

PFM $

C

Gary Sanchez

25

$31.21

C

Brian McCann

10

$20.22

1B

Carlos Santana

15

$22.15

2B

Josh Harrison

5

$14.25

3B

Aledmys Diaz

7

$15.26

SS

Jose Reyes

6

$14.63

CI

Tommy Joseph

9

$15.43

MI

Devon Travis

3

$11.81

OF

Billy Hamilton

22

$28.54

OF

Andrew McCutchen

22

$28.78

OF

A.J. Pollock

19

$25.79

OF

Adam Jones

15

$27.21

OF

Kole Calhoun

8

$14.75

UT

Jacoby Ellsbury

8

$15.06

Total

174

$285.09


The PFM is far more conservative on the top players than I am, so there are no Mike Trouts on this squad. This goes against what Bret Sayre typically does in Tout Wars mixed, and the approach I tend to take in shallower auctions. Sanchez at $25 is the anchor for the team, but the PFM also is betting on a comeback from McCutchen and for Hamilton to finally achieve his potential.

This is a fairly risk-averse team. Where my bid limits are somewhat cautious with Joseph and Travis, the PFM believes that they’ll be solid contributors. Calhoun and Ellsbury are not the most exciting players, but the PFM thinks that they will at least contribute at the levels they did over the last few years.

The Pitching

Player

Bid

PFM $

Clayton Kershaw

42

$49.54

Dallas Keuchel

10

$17.15

John Lackey

10

$15.61

Jeff Samardzija

10

$15.79

Michael Pineda

6

$12.73

Michael Shoemaker

4

$9.48

Wei-Yin Chen

2

$9.69

Matt Andriese

1

$6.40

Mike Leake

1

$7.63

Total

86

$144.02

You can’t argue against purchasing Clayton Kershaw. While my bid limit sits at $42, it is admittedly a compromise with at least three separate goals: trying to spread money across a pitching staff, building in some risk because he is a pitcher, and also giving deference to Clayton Kershaw. I have no qualms with spending $50 or more on him in a mixed format.

The PFM spits out mostly veterans, which isn’t surprising. A former AL Cy Young winner, a reliable-yet-aging workhorse, and a solid arm who had one poor year with the White Sox back up Kershaw at $10 apiece. This is a very strong base for a pitching staff. With a pitching staff like this, my strategy typically would be to bottom out with one dollar starters and spend $77 on the entire staff.

The Prediction

This is the section of the model portfolio where our staff came up with predictions for their teams. For a league that doesn’t play out, going with a balanced team is a solid approach. Something the PFM cannot do that a human can is look for one-dollar fliers that the PFM puts below replacement level. Someone is going to get this year’s Aledmys Diaz—we just don’t know who that is yet.

I will revisit this team at the end of the regular season. Like any “test” of the PFM, it is far from perfect, but this is the goal of the PFM: to build a hypothetical team that is a successful fantasy franchise.

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March 30, 2017 6:00 am

Expert League Auction Recap: Tout Wars General Impressions

3

Mike Gianella

Mike shares his thoughts on the recently completed Tout Wars expert auctions.

Tout Wars Recap – General Impressions

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On Saturday, Bret and 14 experts threw down for four hours in New York City. This is the true story of what happened.

It didn’t take long to figure out that this was going to be a pretty different auction than last year’s version. It only took about 10 players or so. Mike Trout and Paul Goldschmidt both broke the $50 barrier after the two top players from last year (Bryce Harper and Mike Trout) topped out at $48 and $46, respectively.

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Mike looks back on his buys and general thoughts on the recently completed experts league auction.

This past weekend, the fantasy baseball experts gathered in New York City for yet another year of (drumroll) Tout Wars. This competition pits some of the best and brightest people in the industry against one another in four separate auctions. The head-to-head league auctions Friday night, the AL-only and mixed league auctions are Saturday, and the NL-only league auction is Sunday. This recap focuses on my team and strategy in the NL-only league. Later this week, I will take a broader look at some of the trends in the AL and NL-only leagues.

2017 is the eighth year I have competed in Tout Wars, and I have been in the NL-only pool for the duration. I won once, in 2015. If one win out of seven sounds unimpressive, consider that only Tristan Cockcroft has more than one title in the NL since I joined. These people are sharks.

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September 30, 2016 10:57 am

Expert League Recap

1

Mike Gianella

Mike reviews his attempt to go back-to-back in the senior-circuit edition of Tout Wars.

For those of you who don’t voraciously follow my exploits in all of my various fantasy leagues, Tout Wars is considered one of the two premier fantasy baseball “expert” leagues in existence (the other one is the League of Alternate Baseball Reality, or LABR). I have been in Tout Wars for seven years (in the NL only league) and last year I had the pleasure of winning my first title in Tout Wars. This year I was hoping to go back-to-back, joining a select group of fantasy experts who have done so.

But it was not to be.

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March 29, 2016 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Distributing Dollars

4

Mike Gianella

Why Mike believes his unconventional spending in the recent NL Tout Wars auction was the right approach.

Last week, I wrote about my NL Tout Wars auction. This auction was one of the strangest auctions I have ever had. I didn’t spend over $18 on a player, and only spent under $5 on one player: Taylor Jungmann of the Brewers. This was hardly by design. Based on the prices in LABR NL earlier this month, I fully expected to spend aggressively at the top of the food chain, particularly on the hitters. My bid limits were structured in a way that thought I would walk away with one or even two hitters at $35 or above. As you have probably read by now, it didn’t work out that way.

Table 1: Tout Wars NL 2016, 12 Most Expensive Hitters

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Mike recaps his buys and strategy in the recent senior-circuit experts auction.

So I went to New York to this Sunday and things got really weird really fast.

Wait, don’t go! You didn’t accidentally stumble onto Porno Prospectus. It’s me, your favorite fantasy baseball expert, who participated in his seventh National League Tout Wars auction on Sunday. In 2015, the sixth time was the charm, as I managed to take home the title, beating three-time Tout Wars champion Tristan Cockcroft of ESPN. But this isn’t about what happened last year. I happily accepted the congratulations and handshakes of my competitors and then it was down to business.

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Mike reviews his takeaways from the recent Tout Wars auction.

I didn’t participate in Tout Wars AL. However, looking at what happens in an expert league can provide us with solid baseline of what will happen in our home league auctions. Today, I will take a broader look at what happened in both of the mono leagues.

Before I get started, it is worth sharing a few caveats. The goal of this article is not to delve into individual team strategies or examine each and every purchase in depth. This is difficult to do, particularly since the timing of when a player comes up in an auction can often skew his value. Still, it is worth noting a few trends in the hopes that it can help you with your auctions in the next few weekends.

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Bret reviews his squad after the recent Tout Wars experts auction.

“Twenty.”

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October 6, 2015 6:00 am

Expert League Recap

4

Mike Gianella and Bret Sayre

Mike and Bret recap their second year in the mixed format of this experts league.

In 2014, we (Bret Sayre and Mike Gianella) were invited to join the League of Alternative Baseball Reality, or LABR for short, on the mixed-league side. We were humbled, we were honored… and we got our asses kicked, finishing 14th out of 15 teams. We whined about it on Flags Fly Forever (oh boy did we whine), licked our wounds this offseason, and took close look at our approach in 2014 to see if there were any lessons we could carry over from 2014 into 2015.

The Draft

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October 5, 2015 6:00 am

Expert League Recap

8

Mike Gianella

Mike reflects on his title and dethroning ESPN's Tristan Cockcroft.

There are lies we “experts” tell when it comes to expert leagues. One of these lies is that while we want to win an expert league, it’s okay not to do so, since expert leagues are tougher than “home” leagues. While the competition definitely is tougher, it doesn’t quell the desire to win. We all say genteel things about our opponents when we lose and offer our congratulations to the victor, but we all want to win.

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